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2016 in all it's glory! Why stop at just 20 lines of chat, when you can have the whole thing??
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 | KAREN (9/15/2024 8:01:42 AM) Thank you all And, as always, thanks Andy I can die happy now |
 | JAMES (9/5/2024 5:50:41 PM) Well done Karen! Thanks Andy for running the show! |
 | PRES (8/29/2024 3:46:52 PM) OMG! KAREN!!! YOU BLOODY RIPPER!! CONGRATULATIONS!!! Well done to Bren and Bacon too. Thanks Bacon for running the tipping again too.  |
 | TRENT (8/28/2024 6:19:20 AM) Thanks Andy for another entertaining tipping season, good luck to the young hawkers on their finals run. |
| TRENT (8/28/2024 6:16:10 AM) Congratulations Karen, great tipping effort for a roller coaster 2024. |
 | ANDY (8/27/2024 9:16:16 PM) The tipping ladder has finished with Frog on top of the list. Well done. Came down to the last game. If Fremantle won, Darryl would have done enough to have taken the chocolates. Frog 48 Darryl 52 Karen 54 Pete 58 Trent 60 Pres 62 Andy 62 Rodney 64 Bren 64 James 70 John 72 Adam 74 Tossa 80 Clare 80 Matt 80 |
| KAREN (8/26/2024 9:32:26 PM) Whoo-hoo! And I think this result must make 2024 the weirdest footy season ever . . . |
| ANDY (8/26/2024 2:23:14 AM) I take that back. Karen has it, no matter what the result of the last two games. She got Doggies right over Bren GWS and that puts her two ahead. Saints would put Bren one off the pace. Karen 1st Bren 2nd Me 3rd. |
| ANDY (8/26/2024 2:21:26 AM) A sneaky calculation with two results to go. Karen by a nose. If Saints win, I think it's a tie. Reckon i have 3rd place stitched up. Down to Blues vs Saints to decided Karen... or Bren & Karen! |
| ANDY (8/24/2024 5:44:53 AM) Locked and loaded. Goof luck all |
 | BREN (8/24/2024 2:01:47 AM) Good luck all who are still in it. A special thanks to Baconboy for running this again, it's been 21 seasons now, we should celebrate with a BBQ, like the old days, I'm up for it! |
| KAREN (8/24/2024 12:22:08 AM) Thanks Tim But I fear a 'bundle drop' . . . |
| ANDY (8/23/2024 7:30:30 PM) lol. Email me Bulldogs vs GWS margin and tip. |
| PRES (8/23/2024 7:28:31 PM) This is me when Karens wins ....  |
| PRES (8/23/2024 7:26:38 PM) C'MON KAREN!! I'm BARRACKING FOR YOU TO BRING HOME THE CHOCOLATES! 😊😊😊🤞 |
| ANDY (8/19/2024 10:11:42 PM) The ladder trophy competition has come down to three punters. Frog, Darryl and Karen are all in with a chance. Frog needs the ladder to stay the same, whilst the other two need a little bit of movement. Good luck to the trio. Frog 46 Darryl 48 Karen 50 Pete 58 Andy 62 Trent 62 Pres 64 Rodney 64 Bren 60 Adam 70 James 72 John 76 Clare 80 Matt 80 Tossa 80 |
| ANDY (8/17/2024 5:36:17 AM) Go bombers... Lol. What have I done. ;) |
| BREN (8/17/2024 3:02:51 AM) Belated congratulations Clare N1!😁 |
| KAREN (8/5/2024 5:54:05 PM) Well done Clare. Excellent work. And well done Andy, apparently the nine was 'gettable' ☺ |
| ANDY (8/5/2024 3:56:37 AM) Close game with Freo vs Essendon. Essendon up and Clare gets the tip 9 chocolates! |
| ANDY (7/29/2024 6:11:26 AM) Ladder comp has shifted a little. We have a 3 way tie for first place, with Darryl, Pete and Karen all in with a chance. Frog is two off the pace. Adam a sneaky outside chance. All the rest are cooked. John is the out and out favourite to buy a bottle of something for the winner. Darryl 48 Pete 48 Karen 48 Frog 50 Adam 58 Bren 60 Andy 62 Pres 64 James 66 Rodney 66 Trent 66 Matt 70 Clare 80 John 80 Tossa 80 * Not sure what happens if it's a tie. :) Prize wise. |
| ANDY (7/23/2024 10:59:50 PM) Ladder update. Things have changed around at the top. With Pies losing again, Darryl has jumped into the lead. He has then at 13th on his ladder, and has read them well, being a Pies fan. There is still hope for all in the top 4. Only 4 points separating them all. John is still the heavy favourite to buy the bottle for the winner. Darryl 44 Frog 48 Karen 48 Pete 48 Adam 56 Bren 58 Andy 62 Rodney 64 Trent 66 Pres 66 James 66 Matt 68 Clare 82 John 82 Tossa 82 |
| BREN (7/19/2024 10:18:45 PM) RIP Bob Newhart, had perfect timing, a true comedy legend! |
| BREN (7/18/2024 8:18:57 AM) Fmfe |
| BREN (7/18/2024 8:18:28 AM) Get |
| BREN (7/18/2024 8:18:00 AM) How the fuck did I third!!!!😳 |
| ANDY (7/17/2024 6:27:48 AM) Apologies about late updating. Popped to QLD for a little sunshine and beer. |
| BREN (7/17/2024 2:05:49 AM) Missed it by that much! 😊 |
| BREN (7/17/2024 2:04:36 AM) Did you hear about Donald Trumps shooter? |
 | FROG (7/16/2024 9:10:05 PM) I knew you would come around Andy! Welcome to the fold, good to have another Cats supporter on the site. |
| ANDY (7/13/2024 8:21:33 AM) It's hard watching and supporting Geelong. Go Cats! |
| KAREN (7/9/2024 12:11:56 AM) There is something strange going on here . . . |
| ANDY (7/8/2024 11:39:51 PM) The ladder competition is continuing to tighten. With the shifting of teams, Karen has jumped to equal lead! The tipster who has bought more bottles of booze, by finishing last, is now a sneaky chance of getting a bottle of something for herself! Pete. Darryl and Trent are now a big chance. All others not in the race. John has locked himself in for buying the bottle, on the main tipping platform. Frog 52 Karen 52 Pete 54 Darryl 58 Trent 58 Rodney 66 Bren 66 Andy 68 Adam 68 Pres 70 Matt 74 James 74 John 78 Clare 86 Tossa 86 |
| ANDY (7/6/2024 8:29:51 AM) I don't say it often.... but.... go you Donnies! |
| BREN (7/6/2024 3:05:10 AM) Nice one Frog, I'm amazed that I got best round. Lol |
| FROG (7/5/2024 9:32:23 PM) Great work on the ladder Andy!!! It is a mysterious beast but happy with how it is looking at the moment. |
| ANDY (7/2/2024 10:18:17 PM) With a few positions on the ladder changing, things have tightened up at the top. Frog is out in front, but has Trent & Pete only 4 points behind. Karen and Darryl are just a few points back from that. You can stick a fork in John, Clare, Adam and probably a few more. Very open ladder comp! I didn't do it last week, but looked at results. Trent was out in front, last week. So a lot can change with 11 teams with 6 points of 3rd place. Frog 58 Andy 72 Rodney 70 Bren 72 Adam 76 Matt 74 Trent 62 Karen 64 Clare 88 Darryl 64 Pete 62 Pres 74 James 74 John 80 Tossa 88 P.S. If you don't understand how ladder comp works, drop me an email. |
| ANDY (6/21/2024 1:10:02 AM) The mid season results are in for the ladder comp. Frog has a substantial lead on the rest, with the closest ladder of 54 points. In second place is Trent and Karen on 60. All results below. Clare with the worst result of 84, has last year's ladder. Frog 54 Andy 70 Rodney 68 Bren 74 Adam 72 Matt 72 Trent 60 Karen 60 Clare 84 Darryl 62 Pete 64 Pres 72 James 64 John 82 Tossa 84 Of all the results, the biggest miss is Richmond and John, selecting them in 3rd place. Frog has Geelong and Gold Coast bang on! Also Kangaroos, Saints, Swans and Bulldogs one out of position, so it's an open field. *** Just so you know, 3 of you had 17 teams in your ladder and I adjusted in the missing one by where that team finished last year. Good luck all! |
| ANDY (6/21/2024 1:02:13 AM) Okay folks, finally got around to sorting out the ladders. Big thanks to Dipper and his spread sheet. Have missed his help on providing the ladder update. Also missed his weekly rant about how bad Hawthorn are traveling... but with my Hawks neck and neck with Melbourne... not to worry ;) |
| ANDY (6/15/2024 10:19:48 PM) Little technical issue with Darryl and his tips. His are: Brisbane Collingwood we are going to the game on Sunday Bulldogs Hawthorn Sydney Giants I'll adjust on Monday. |
| ANDY (6/9/2024 3:35:56 AM) go hawks...! yay! |
| ANDY (6/8/2024 6:46:50 AM) Only live unit for tip 9 is John, after selecting Tichmond |
| ANDY (6/7/2024 5:41:43 AM) Tips are locked away. Go hawks |
| BREN (6/7/2024 3:38:40 AM) Welcome to tossaville Timmy!!!! |
 | TEDDY (6/5/2024 11:33:54 PM) I'm still snaky on West Coast for not finishing off the Saints. |
| ANDY (6/5/2024 10:59:11 PM) And they weren't bad tips! Some of the results are crazy!! |
| PRES (6/4/2024 12:26:46 AM) LOL I picked one for the week. Tossa got 6. |
| ANDY (5/31/2024 3:36:26 AM) Clarko? I love Clarko! Does need to keep his mouth shut, though. |
| BREN (5/31/2024 1:26:35 AM) Angry Ant does it again! He needs to do an angry management course. No wonder we got rid of him. Control freak personified!!! |
| BREN (5/24/2024 3:14:52 AM) The only way is up, baby, just you and me babe! |
| ANDY (5/21/2024 10:05:50 PM) It reminded me of when Hawthorn moved into the shade versus Brisbane, all those years ago. Lots of points up and the opposition "see they're tired". This time, heaps of points up and Hardwick to defence. "See they're trying to save the game". Ouch! Good effort, but not good enough. Must work out those ladders. Sorry. Dipper was good for two things. Lots of words, great for my google ranking. lol. And he worked out the ladder all the time. Hopefully back in a year or two when Melbourne are where they rightfully belong :) |
| KAREN (5/17/2024 7:48:11 AM) Go the Sunnyboys 😊 |
| JAMES (5/16/2024 5:55:04 AM) Have a good break! |
| ANDY (5/13/2024 10:32:00 PM) Hey All. In Bali for a bit of R&R. Results and new round of tipping to be updated on Wednesday. Cheers |
| ANDY (5/10/2024 6:19:10 AM) Tips locked away. Urgghh... went Demons and Carlton up by 6 goals already |
| BREN (5/9/2024 11:32:08 PM) Nice one Karen, how the fuck did Tossa get 7, FM! |
| JAMES (5/9/2024 7:16:29 PM) Wheels have come off the Bulldogs wagon. |
| ANDY (5/7/2024 5:17:42 AM) My picture and comments, above, on Libba were just a guess after i saw the clash with Amon. Unfortunately the little champ is on ice for some time. Hope it's not the end. Bloody head knocks and AFL are happening too often. He's my favourite at the Dogs... with some of the weirdest tattoos! |
| KAREN (5/6/2024 11:59:58 PM) I love that my team winning results in the opposition coach getting 'the full support of the board'. https://www.news.com.au/sport/afl/afl-2024-western-bulldogs-coach-luke-beveridge-backed-by-president/news-story/d215afe7c74661033d85dd5780f1db01 |
| ANDY (4/20/2024 4:56:21 AM) Everyone is paid up for tip 9. Only a few live units left as most stoopidly went St Kilda. |
| ANDY (3/26/2024 11:31:02 PM) Get your ladder predictions in. |
| ANDY (3/26/2024 7:21:22 AM) fiddy. yep. |
| PRES (3/26/2024 5:35:07 AM) Hey Bacon - what's the damage for tipping again? $50 |
| ANDY (3/22/2024 5:31:28 AM) Tips are locked. Most went Pies, but I suspect most supporting Saints. Pres and Daz aside |
| ANDY (3/22/2024 3:49:18 AM) Ladders will be due prior to the start of round 3. You can enter them any time now. |
| PRES (3/21/2024 2:18:40 AM) How the 'Smart Ball' was developed for footy From Cambridge to the AFL, go behind the scenes of how ball tracking was added to Sherrin footballs for a trial in 2024. This is great! Check out the 2nd clip though for more detail. 8mins https://www.afl.com.au/news/1090565/smart-ball-ball-tracking-technology-to-be-trialed-in-the-vfl-this-week |
| TRENT (3/20/2024 7:06:40 PM) when are ladders due? |
| ANDY (3/18/2024 7:04:55 AM) Results are in. Round 3 opens in the morning. |
| ANDY (3/15/2024 5:28:46 AM) We are locked and loaded. Good luck all.  |
| ANDY (3/15/2024 3:57:05 AM) Two Pies. Two Cats. Had the opportunity for another punter, but he was a Dog's supporter. Drew the line. ;) |
| JAMES (3/15/2024 12:05:54 AM) Do we now have 2 pies supporters on here? They’re evolving! |
 | JOHN (3/12/2024 12:13:25 AM) testing |
 | DARRYL (3/12/2024 12:08:08 AM) testing |
| ANDY (3/10/2024 3:34:44 AM) Darryl : GC and Pies | |
| PRES (3/9/2024 4:23:55 PM) Carlton by 1 point. Fuck me you've gotta love football. I turned it off after quarter time and tuned into Kayo to whip through the goals towards the end, only to catch the last few mintutes. Great to see McKay to not fuck up! ... and geez Charlie just keeps on showing he is one of the best match winners in the league. Calrton vs Pies GF. Pies win by 9 points. |
| PRES (3/9/2024 4:15:33 PM) Welcome Darryl. Which one are you? 😜 GO PIES!! |
| ANDY (3/9/2024 6:23:15 AM) The Gawn beat up was a good tactic by Swans. He's the heart and soul of Melbourne. The SEN crew said that Port did the same thing to Demons, last year, and it worked a treat. Wonder how Demons felt about losing to Sydney, after they gave up Grundy for garbage picks. His salary is off their books, though. |
| ANDY (3/9/2024 6:21:02 AM) What's worse than having one Collingwood supporter in a tipping comp? Having two! I've recruited another punter. Welcome Darryl. Great guy, but a Pies supporter. His first two tips are Swans, Brisbane. He's a late entry so got his tips on the fly, other two to follow tomorrow morning. I'll sort out profiles, etc on Monday. |
| PRES (3/8/2024 4:49:30 PM) Gotta say ... well done Grundy, nice showing. Great tactic on Gawn which no doubt every opposition ruck coach had a good night's wank last night.  |
| PRES (3/8/2024 4:41:54 PM) Welcome John. |
| ANDY (3/8/2024 6:01:41 AM) We have a new punter to join. John's tips are: Sydney Carlton Richmond Collingwood. Although he is a Geelong supporter, he is a good bloke :) |
| ANDY (3/6/2024 7:45:28 PM) Back to back to back.  |
| PRES (3/5/2024 9:03:09 PM) I think you mean, back to back!! 😝  |
| TEDDY (3/5/2024 8:38:41 PM) And we're back! |
| ANDY (3/5/2024 7:11:04 AM) aaa |
| ANDY (3/5/2024 6:18:53 AM) testing for 2024 |
 | DIPPER (15/05/2023 12:36:31 AM) Didn't have much time for footy this weekend (the Darwin Italian Festival was on), but I did see bits and pieces. My observations are: 1. I completely underestimated how hopeless West Coast and Hawthorn are. 2. I completely underestimated how good Collingwood is. 3. I liked the way the Doggies teased the Blues supporters into suffering all the way through to the end of the game, rather than allowing them to walk out half-way through the third quarter with a clear conscience. I think that will become a new "thing", looking forward to the Pies doing something similar next week. 4. Jiath update. I thought the Hawks had a glimmer of hope early in the third quarter, after they had banged on 3 of the first 4 goals of the second half. And then Jiath had an uncontested possession just behind the wing. Could have banged it to the 50 before the Melbourne rucks got set behind the ball, but instead went for a chip to centre half back which was intercepted and resulted in a Langdon goal moments later, and any momentum the Hawks had was snuffed out. Jiath seems to be injured. Give him a month off to recover, and while the injury prevents him being an athlete try to teach him to be a footballer. 5. Captain Sicily update. Best on ground again by those who just read the stats, but what about those who watch the game? He was absolutely thrashed by Petty in the first half (who played only 33% game time before being subbed out but had 2 goals and 6 marks already. Had he played a full game on Sicily he would have had 15 marks and 6 goals.). Then he picked up Gawn who marked on the lead (to kick at goal from 53 metres). OK, that can happen. By why was Sicily standing the mark? He should have got some midget to do that, while he got back in the goalsquare. Gawn's kick slews off the side of the boot and is marked by Grundy, who was being picked up by the midget who should have been standing the mark. They talk about some footballers having a high "football IQ"; Captain Sicily is not one of them. But gets good stats. And Sam Mitchell thinks he should be All Australian. Accepts mediocrity too easily, does our Mr Masterclass, and it shows in the performances of his team. 6. Why is Lloyd Meek allowed to play? This is the second time he has been reported for kneeing an opposing ruckman, and for the second offence he cops a fine? First offence was against Blicavs, this time it was Gawn. There is a very good chance at least one of those guys will be lining up at the centre bounce on GF day. I note that the Hawks play the Dees again in round 23. Is the AFL happy to have the grand final decided by some spastic in the bottom side taking out key players for other teams? And at the same time, they wanted to give van Rooyen two weeks for contesting the ball? Fair dinkum, AFL, get your sh*t together! His first offence could have been a fine, with a three match suspended sentence. Then, on this second offence he could have got 5 weeks plus the 3 suspended. Eight weeks would give him plenty of time to get his rucking technique right, and you would reduce the possibility of your grand final being decided by which player some spastic decides to take out unfairly. |
| DIPPER (14/05/2023 11:41:12 PM) Ladder update: Can't see any changes to the final 8 from here on in. Possible the Saints will slide out, but none of us had them in the top 8 in our ladders anyway, so it won't change a thing. So, it looks like the podium for the ladder comp is finalised. Gold to Frog (current score 56) with Bren and Matt fighting it out for the minor medals (both currently on 56). The rest of us are too far back, but the peloton is led by Clare (58). Trent is in Clare's slipstream (60) while Adam, Andy and Pete are just clinging on with 62. Next best score is 68. |
| FROG (13/05/2023 5:09:45 PM) Fluke it till you make it :) |
| BREN (12/05/2023 4:47:10 PM) Well done Frogger the fluke, 9 again, I'm impressed. 👍 |
| BREN (12/05/2023 4:42:31 PM) CONGRATULATIONS Clare for getting 9. Nice one. 😃 |
| DIPPER (11/05/2023 8:08:59 PM) Round 9 bet update: The Tigers/Eagles/Hawks/GWS all-up odds has come in from $450 to $394 for your dollar, but you can still get $446 with a Sportsbet Powerplay. In terms of selection Toby Greene has been named but may not play - wait and see on that one. But Frampton is out of the Pies side, and he has been the heart and soul of their big man department for several weeks now. Even with Cox back in the side Frampton had two thirds of the centre bounce attendances, and Cox has never been much of a ruckman. His memorable games were mainly as a forward. Begg comes in to ruck, a 20-year-old, won the hitout in less than 11% of the rucks he has contested, and is below average in his career in every stat they record. Doesn't hurt the Giants chances of an upset. Cats lose Dangerfield and Close, Parfitt and a debutant replacing them. Tigers get Cotchin back. So mostly good news for punters there. Hurn out for Eagles, but so is Casboult for the Suns, so that is one less marking forward the Eagles have to contend with. Harry Edwards (WC) at 200 cm and 98 kg is big enough to make a nuisance of himself at either end of the ground. To be perfectly frank both teams have about 3 blokes going around on the weekend who might get a game for another side; the rest are just magnets to throw at the board. Hawks made 5 changes; I guess they were pretty ordinary against a relatively weak side last week. Breust back is good. Jiath? Well, if my theory is right, and both Dees and Gold Coast struggle to come up this week his running might be important. The rest of the Hawks are just deckchairs on the Titanic, really. Is Blanck any better (or worse) than Scrimshaw and Bramble? Sam Butler? So instead of just Wingard and Moore sharing one position and combining for the output of one player, this week they will have three identical players? Not how I would have set up. When May and Lever both play you have to have opponents of sufficient size to occupy them, otherwise they just peel off and intercept. Bombers were missing both Weideman and Wright, but frequently had both Phillips and Draper in the forward 50 and they combined for 5 goals, with Langford kicking 2. The last time the Hawks talls combined for 7 goals was ... when exactly? And the last time the Hawks ruckmen combined for 5 goals was ... some time last century. Has Mitchell noticed that the Hawks have kicked only 68 goals for the year? Next worst is North (73) who are truly hopeless, and Eagles 81. Eagles have been playing Darling and Allen, so why not Lewis and Koschitzke? An extra 2 goals a game would have been useful for the win-loss record. Anyway, my wallet is barracking for a coaching masterclass on Saturday; just hope this one wasn't blown at the selection table. |
| DIPPER (9/05/2023 2:37:06 PM) Well, you will recall we backed the last winner of the Flemington carnival (Snapper) in the Spring, even though the odds said he couldn't win. My analysis that day was similar to the footy this week: analyse the data and identify where the betting market has it wrong. All 4 could get beaten, but the odds on offer are just plain too high based on the data available. |
| ANDY (9/05/2023 1:52:39 PM) Thanks Dipper. Always love a good bet Would be a miracle if those 4 sides got up... but i like miracles. Tigers $3.34 Eagles $3.50 Hawks $7 Giants $5.50 |
| DIPPER (9/05/2023 12:12:18 AM) From the "You read it here first department". Recently I rated all the coaches, and, on a scale of A to E, I gave Voss a D rating. Wayne Carey, on his Podcast today ("The Truth Hurts") is the first of our so-called experts who has called the coaching ability of Voss into question. The boys from "On The Couch" didn't exactly bag Voss, but they did point out that Carlton would do better with Curnow getting up the ground Jeremy Cameron style and McKay being the stay a home key target (the Blues do it the other way around). And they did point out that leaving Cripps head-to-head with Dunkley long after it was obvious that battle was being lost was poor coaching. Good work, albeit with the benefit of hindsight. In these pages you could read that Cripps should have been played as a permanent forward BEFORE the Birsbane game woke a few of our experts into that observation. |
| DIPPER (9/05/2023 12:03:42 AM) On Saturday night it was like Bontompelli was trying to get me to change my mind about who the best midfielder is, as he racked up a career-high 14 clearances. Not bad, Mr Bont, but it is a little difficult to sway the Oliver/Bontompelli debate with clearances. A couple of hours earlier Oliver had his 50th consecutive game with 5 or more clearances. Since records began the next best, shared by 3 retired players (Priddis, Mundy and Josh P Kennedy) is just 28 consecutive games with 5 or more clearances. [This was reported on On The Couch Monday night.] There is no substitute for consistency. |
| DIPPER (8/05/2023 11:49:33 PM) So, in summary: Tigers $3.34 Eagles $3.50 Hawks $7 Giants $5.50 All up $450 for your dollar. Good luck! |
| DIPPER (8/05/2023 11:37:20 PM) The last outsider I fancy this week is the Giants against Collingwood. The Pies kicked 260 points in their first two games (average 130) and have managed just 442 (average 74) in their six games since. Pre-season there were signs that the "Orange Tsunami" would be back this season, but we haven't seen it yet. But the GPS data suggests that this is the week they should strike. The average ground covered by the Giants the last 3 weeks is 294 km, 9 km/game more than their season average. For the Pies last 3 it is 287, exactly the same as their season average. The Giants numbers over the last 5 weeks have been 273 km, 279, 286, 295 and 300. Provided they are still building (and a few sides have exceeded 300 km this season, with St Kilda topping the charts against Essendon with 310) and haven't peaked, and if Toby gets back to help finish off their run and carry work they will easily exceed the 74 points per game Collingwood has been averaging. Once again the odds in a two-horse race are luxurious at $5.50. Perhaps the Pies lose and the GPS data is not the reason. They might have a flu through the ranks. Or it might be just one of those inexplicable dips in form that gets written off by "they have been up for a long time". The hardest part of backing a long-shot that gets up is finding a reason to do it. It doesn't have to match the reason it gets up! |
| DIPPER (8/05/2023 11:24:31 PM) The other one I like at big odds is the Hawks this week. Dees/Suns was at least as brutal as Crows-Giants in round 1, and neither of them got up the next week in games where today they would both start very short-priced favourites! Dees could "manage" 4-6 players this week, and still put on the park a better team than the Hawks can (last year 7 top Dees missed the game with covid and they still beat the Hawks), which might take the sting out of the effects of the Suns game. But if they name a (nearly) unchanged side they are vulnerable. These massive upsets happen. Remember last season when preliminary finalists Collingwood lost to a WAFL side playing under the West Coast Eagles banner? Explain that one! And the Hawks are $7 (6/1) in a two-horse race. In 2021 when both sides were at full strength, in a season where the Hawks finished down the ladder and Melbourne was minor premiers and eventual premiers the game ended in a draw. Two obvious reasons: 1. The Dees missed half a dozen easy set shots they would normally kick, and 2. the "load-building" Burgess had them doing at that time to peak in September left them a little lead-legged during that patch of games (9 games, 4 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses). Perhaps that load-building contributed to the poor set shots. The point is that you only have to be a couple of percent off and a top side loses to a bottom side in the AFL. And $7 is huge in a two-horse race. |
| DIPPER (8/05/2023 5:48:58 PM) The other team sides play and struggle to get up the next week is the Dees. You can beat them (as Brisbane did in round 2 and Essendon did in round 5) but what happens after that? Brisbane lost the next week to the winless Dogs, kicking their lowest score for the season (and in living memory!). Essendon got past the Dees but were out on their feet by 3/4 time in their next game (ANZAC day) despite a ten-day break to their next game. Round 1 Dees crunched the Dogs, who had their worst score of the season the next week against St Kilda. Round 2 Brisbane, same. Round 3 Dees played the Swans, who lost at home the next week to Port. This was interesting, as both sides had come up against the brutal ones the week before (Port had played Adelaide) and, in perfect conditions, it was 9 goals each. Round 4 Melbourne played the Eagles, who conceded 21 goals the next week. Round 5 it Was Essendon, covered already. Round 6 it was the Tigers. Although they got close to Melbourne that night they also failed to recovered despite an 8-day break, and went down to the Suns while managing a season-low 6 goals. Round 7 was North, who followed up with their lowest score of the season a week later. Round 8 the Dees played the Suns. Suns are hot favourites over in Perth, but the data says they are 50/50 at best. Yes, they can get up for the odd game, but they don't bring it consecutive weeks very often. Meanwhile, the fitness of the Eagles is building. Over the last 3 weeks the GPS shows them 7 km above their season-to-date average, and they clocked a season-high 305 km last week. When they beat GWS in round 2 they put on 6 km more than the Giants (who were coming off that brutal Adelaide game) and kicked 14.16 100. Would you really want to bet that the Suns bring their best two weeks in a row? I think that game last week and a 3,000 km flight will prevent that. More bets to come later. |
| DIPPER (8/05/2023 5:17:38 PM) This one is for the punters among you. There is some data which says round 9 will have several massive upsets. Here are the candidates, and why. Tigers are $3.34 against Geelong. That is over the odds for the following reasons: 1. In such an even competition it is rare that a side wins more than 5 in a row. Admittedly the Cats did that last year, but they were at full strength for most of that run, whereas last round they were missing a third of their GF side, and now Dangerfield, who has been key to their recent winning run, is also out. 2. Sides that play Adelaide struggle the next week. Here is a list. GWS played Adelaide in round 1 and lost to the Eagles in round 2. Eagles are 1-7, even losing to North. That is no coincidence. Richmond played Adelaide in round 2. They promptly lost their next 4 on the trot including, in the very next week, having a season low 14 scoring shots. Port played the Crows in round 3. In round 4 they nearly lost to Sydney despite the McCartins episode leaving Sydney with no tall backs and fewer rotations for the second half. Port's 9 goals that day was their equal lowest: the Collingwood thrashing being the other one. Adelaide played Carlton in round 5. In round 6 the Blues lost to the Saints, kicking just 8 goals, their equal lowest for the season. A week later the Blues kicked 23 goals. Hawks got Adelaide in round 6. A week later they faded badly against the Bulldogs. Pies squeaked past Adelaide in round 7 and produced their worst game for the season (against Sydney) a week later. 3. Tigers have been building their running power, which is key to their game style. The GPS says the side collectively covered 301 km last round, compared to a season average of 277 km. The average distance they have covered in the last 3 rounds is 6 km more than their season average. So, the data says it is common for the side that played Adelaide the previous week to kick their (equal) lowest number of goals the following week. For the Cats that is 7 (vs Suns). The fitter side that the Tigers put on the park last round should be able to run in more goals than that. Not saying the Tigers should be favourites, but >$3 in this two-horse race is overs. |
| DIPPER (8/05/2023 1:59:04 AM) Erratum: Pies, of course, have 7 wins (not 5). And that Pies-Power game is in the city of churches. |
| DIPPER (8/05/2023 1:51:07 AM) Eight rounds in and what do we know? Let’s begin at the bottom of the ladder and work our way up. 18 Hawthorn 1 win 7losses What I said pre-season: Bottom 6. What I think now: Bottom 6. Decided to take the short-term pain for the long-term rebuild. But I would ask the architect: what does the finished product look like? In 2-3 years they might have a midfield to match Miller/Rowell/Anderson. Perhaps Reeves becomes the next Witts. Sicily and who else will be the key backs who can match Collins and Ballard? Will Mitch Lewis match the output of Ben King? So, they are rebuilding to create a side that might one day be as good as the Suns are today? Trying to create a side that can match a side that never makes the finals? More information on the finished product please. The point is that the Adelaide rebuild was also planning for the finished product to be mediocre. If North had taken the 3 draft picks offered for the number 1 pick (Horne-Francis) Adelaide wouldn’t have Dawson, Rachele and Rankine (those 3 draft picks offered to North were used on those three players). And it is those three players who have lifted Adelaide above the Gold Coast Suns. 17 West Coast 1 win 7 losses What I said pre-season: no finals but expected to improve on injury-smashed 2022. What I think now: no finals, but will improve on just two wins last season, despite being smashed by injury again. Have an opportunity to notch second win this week up against Gold Coast coming off that brutal game against Melbourne and a 3,000 km flight. Games against each of Hawthorn and North to come, so likely to exceed last season’s two wins. 16 North 2 wins 6 losses What I said pre-season: bottom 4 The Messiah will have his work cut out turning this water into champagne. Can they win another game before round 18? Can they win another game all season? Can anyone see what Clarko is trying to do with this side? 15 Richmond 2 wins 1 draw 5 losses What I said pre-season: likely to make finals. What I think now: unlikely to make finals. Officially end of an era. 14 Gold Coast Suns 3 wins 5 losses What I said pre-season: bottom 6 What I think now: bottom 6. At their best, when all 23 give their heart and soul they can play. Knocked over the 2022 premiers. Got within a kick of the 2021 premiers, and there is a good chance one of those two will be 2023 premiers. But just go through the motions too often to rack up the wins required to be a contender. Decent spine (Collins, Ballard, Swallow, Chol, King) and first centre square rotation (Witts, Miller, Anderson, Rowell). But lack depth. 13 GWS Giants 3 wins 5 losses What I said pre-season: missing finals but would beat some finalists What I think now: missing finals but would beat some finalists. Pies, Saints and Cats next three. Could beat Saints at home at a pinch, but almost certain to be too far off the pace by the time they can string some wins together. I must say, however, unlike the Hawks and North, you can actually see what they are trying to build. Assuming Cadman will be a decent key forward one day they seem to have a complete spine for the long term (Taylor/Buckley/Kelly/Himmelberg/Hogan or Cadman), Toby Greene still has some years left and a centre square built around Green and Coniglio will always be competitive. Some decent role players around that lot already plus some youngsters coming through I can see them making finals as soon as 2024. If they could trade for a ruckman that would help. Perhaps Phillips, if the Bombers offer him only one year again. I am sure he would take a 3-year deal with the expectation of being the main man. 12 Fremantle 3 wins 5 losses What I said pre-season: sliding down the ladder and missing finals What I think now: sliding down the ladder and missing finals. How important was it to be played back into form by Hawthorn? (And is it true Jackson had as many touches and goals against the Hawks as he had in all his other Freo games put together?) Hasn’t done the Cats any harm, as they have won a string of games since, mostly by large margins. Away to Sydney this week, a “must win” game for both sides, and the Cats and Dees follow. Likely sunk without trace by mid-season. 11 Sydney Swans 3 wins 5 losses What I said pre-season: over-achieved in 2022 but likely finalists 2023. What I think now: over-achieved in 2022 and unlikely to make finals in 2023. 10 Adelaide 4 wins 4 losses What I said pre-season: will make finals What I think now: will make finals. “Must win” game against the Saints on Sunday, as in danger of dropping 3 on the trot. Good game, that one. Saints have been super-stingy this year, conceding 105 points fewer than any other team over 8 rounds; that is 13 points/game. Crows have scored more than 5 of the 9 teams above them on the ladder. This one will be the irresistible force versus the immovable object. 9 Essendon 4 wins 4 losses What I said pre-season: will make finals What I think now: will make finals. Lop-sided draw, playing the “big 4” (Collingwood, Geelong, Melbourne & Brisbane) plus the in-form Saints and Power all in the first 9 rounds, but play Eagles and North twice each in the back half of the season. Have a better percentage than 3 of the sides above them on the ladder, which they would want to protect in Brisbane this week. Playing well enough to win 10 more games from round 10 onwards. That would give them 14 out of 23 for the season. 8 Carlton 4 wins 1 draw 3 losses What I said pre-season: likely to just miss the 8. What I think now: likely to just miss the 8. Made a mess of the Eagles in Perth, so they are not bottom 6, but the three losses surrounding that one suggest they are not really top 8 either. Dogs, Pies, Swans, Dees & Bombers next 5. Would need to win at least two of those to remain in contention. 7 Western Bulldogs 5 wins 3 losses What I said pre-season: finalists with a chance to win it all. What I think now: finalists with a chance to win it all. They might have to do what the Dees did in 2021 (beat the Cats at Kardinia Park in the final round) to make top 4. Will be finely tuned for that one, as I expect them to be averaging 20 goals/game over the previous 4 weeks. 6 Geelong 5 wins 3 losses What I said pre-season: top 4 What I think now: top 4. Slow start but humming along now. At their best they kill everyone. At their home ground they kill everyone. Plenty of home games to come. Plenty of time to be at their best. In 2022 started 4-5 and then won just about every game. Could do something similar this year. 5 Port 6 wins 2 losses What I said pre-season: bottom half of the ladder. What I think now: One of the sides in the top 8 vulnerable to those just outside (Essendon, Adelaide). Poor percentage, although might fix that up against North this week. Still have to play Collingwood in Melbourne, Cats twice, and Dees. Several “8-point” games loom large: Dogs, Essendon and Carlton (all in Melbourne) and Crows in Adelaide. Will they still be getting the same output from the youngsters in the last 7 rounds as they have got in the first 8? 4 Brisbane 6 wins 2 losses What I said pre-season: top 4 What I think now: top 4. Already beaten Melbourne and Collingwood in Brisbane and might go undefeated there this season. Eight more games at the “Gabbattoir”, with the Cats the only one they might give them trouble there. Crows, Saints, Dees, Dockers and Pies on the road will keep them honest (and very keen to bank those home wins). 3 St Kilda 6 wins 2 losses What I said pre-season: bottom 4 What I think now: Likely finalist. Only interstate trip so far this season was Gather round (vs Collingwood), so have a hefty chunk of travelling coming up, but 2 games against the Hawks, another against North, plus Giants, Eagles, Suns, and Tigers (twice) means more than half of their remaining games are against sides currently bottom 6. 2 Melbourne 6 wins 2 losses What I said pre-season: top 4. What I think now: top 4. Might struggle to get up this week after a brutal game against the Suns. Still got plenty of losable games: Port (away), Pies, Cats at Kardinia Park stand out, but look a safe bet for top 4. 1 Collingwood 5 wins 1 loss What I said pre-season: slider, 6th to 10th. What I think now: almost certain to make finals, and a good chance for top 4. Giants, North & Eagles in the next four weeks should enable the Pies to wrap up a top 8 spot early, and then work on top 4. Hard to see any sides other than Geelong, Melbourne and Brisbane vying with them for top 4, although St Kilda, with wins in the bank and a softer draw than most might be the most likely challenger. |
| DIPPER (7/05/2023 11:44:34 PM) Ladder update after round 8. Bren leads on 48 from Trent and this year's winner Frog on 52. Clare has 54, Adam and Matt 56, Andy 58. Best of the rest is 66. |
| DIPPER (7/05/2023 11:22:40 PM) Probably left out Gold Coast's "must win" games against the Cats and the Tigers. The point is that none of the teams in contention for finals can afford to lose three in a row, which would have happened had those sides not won their "must win" games. Sydney has now lost 3 in a row, and while they will be in with a chance of finals "mathematically" for many more rounds, I think today's loss marks the death knell of their chances. Essendon has lost 3 in a row now, too, and are odds on to lose 4 in a row travelling to the "Gabbatoir" next week, but they are in better shape than Sydney. Essendon already has 4 wins in the bank and has four(!) games against the Eagles and North to come. Their "must win" game will come against the Tigers in round 10. Sydney has to get past the resurgent Dockers next week just to have as many wins in the bank as Essendon already has. And Sydney has just two games to come against Witches Hats sides (Eagles/North/Hawthorn). |
| DIPPER (7/05/2023 11:02:50 PM) Observation on Sunday's games All three were of poor quality today. Essendon's worst performance for the year. They didn't get blown out of the park only because Port couldn't kick straight. North-Saints was diabolical. Sometimes you can see a poor team drag their opponents down to their level, but that wasn't the case today. Both teams were at that level, and it was poor. Pies did well to fight off Sydney. To demonstrate the evenness of the competition, nearly every time a team this season absolutely had to win, they have done it. Port vs Brisbane and Sydney. Crows vs Port. Hawks vs North. Freo vs Eagles. Freo vs Hawks. Cats vs Hawks. Brisbane vs Melbourne. Bulldogs vs Brisbane. Suns vs Cats. Freo vs Eagles. Giants vs Swans. In all those games one side genuinely had to win for the future of their season, and each time they achieved it. I thought today was a "must win" for the Swans. At times they seemed to have the ascendancy but poor kicking for goal cost them. But to fight off a side in "must win" mode is never easy, and the Pies did it fairly comfortably in the end. It was "must win" for Sydney, as there is a substantial gap now between the top ten and the rest. Sydney, 11th is a game and percentage behind the 10th placed Crows, and a game and a half (and percentage) behind 8th placed Carlton. Freo in 12th place have the same mountain to climb as Sydney, but their percentage is even worse. Those two sides not only have to battle each other but also GWS and the Suns, who have the same premiership points as them, and Richmond, who are only half a game behind them, to even establish which is the top team outside the top ten. Then they have the unenviable task of overtaking and displacing two of the ten teams above them. I called it a week ago - that only the top ten could make the 8. On Fox Footy and SEN and AFL.com.au you will start hearing people saying this now, but remember: you read it here first! |
| DIPPER (6/05/2023 11:11:38 PM) Observations on Saturday's games. Tigers-Eagles About what everyone expected. Tigers comfortably, but they are not going well enough to get the 10-goal plus win most contenders will get playing the Weagles away from Perth. Cats-Crows About what everyone expected. Crows held Hawkins/Cameron/Simpson to 6 goals, about half of what they have been averaging lately. Tough gig going to Kardinia Park these days, or any days, really. Ted Whitten once told me he didn't remember ever winning down there, and his Scraggers weren't a bad side in his career. Cats tracking top 4, Crows top 8. Suns-Dees Best result would have been a goal with that last shot, and a drawn game, as neither side deserved to lose. Suns were manic, pressure-wise, won the contested possessions clearly (+27), won clearances by 6. But Dees had 61-46 inside 50s, which is usually enough for a solid win. Interesting they chose to replace Hibberd (late withdrawal) with young Turner, rather than Tomlinson. Goodwin really is trying to rebuild while staying in contention. You youngsters got a glimpse of what football used to be like in the good old days. In the good old days if your opponent had been too good for you all day, and then in the last quarter he has to stand under a high ball, and you have the chance to close from distance and get there just after the ball does, you would take the opportunity to put him in hospital. You don't see that much these days but check out van Rooyen vs Ballard. That incident, however, almost cost Melbourne the game! The Suns had given it everything (they clocked a massive 297 km on the GPS tracker) but had the staggers half-way through the last quarter. But the ten-minute break they got while the stretcher was organised gave them a chance when they should have had none. Giants-Dogs About what everyone expected. Giants are no pushovers but will lose most of the gams they play against sides in the top echelon. The next two weeks will make or break the Doggies: Blues then Crows. All three sides sitting 7th to 10th (and could be specifically 8th, 9th and 10th if the Bombers don't lose tomorrow). Winning them both would make them top Dog of those three for the tilt at the finals. Freo-Hawks Just when it looked like the Hawks had turned the corner and could be distinguished from the Witches Hats sides of Eagles and Kangaroos, they put in a performance like that. It's my fault, isn't it? As soon as I mentioned they could get Melbourne's 3 draft picks for Harley Reid they couldn't get to the bottom of the ladder quickly enough. They could seal that deal before the game next week, instead of tossing the coin. Seriously, though, after the Giants-Crows clash in round 1 the players of both teams were so exhausted you couldn't imagine either team winning the following week. In fact, the Giants lost to the Eagles the following week (the Eagles only win for the year). And the Crows lost to the Tigers the following week which, up until the Tigers beat the Weagles today, was the only win for the Tigers all season. After the Suns-Dees game I thought both sides would get rolled next week. Then I looked at the fixture. Suns vs Eagles & Dees vs Hawks. Hmm. Currently you get $24.08 for your dollar on both Eagles and Hawks to win next week. I am going to have a big slice of that, because it is way over the odds. Maybe $9 (8/1) is realistic, but maybe even that is value. Both those sides (Suns, Dees) will struggle to get up for the game next week. Possibly the Dees could make half a dozen changes and rest a few of the youngsters (McVee, Turner, van Rooyen, Chandler and one or two others), bringing in Joel Smith, Spargo, Brown, Tomlinson, and perhaps Melksham for one other who is a bit sore. But I still reckon both sides will struggle next week. |
| DIPPER (5/05/2023 11:03:54 PM) Observations on Blues-Lions First quarter was a cracker, but when the Lions upped the ante, the Blues couldn't go with them. Fought it out in the last quarter, but, overall, it looked like a top 4 side beating a mid-table side. Dogs, Pies, Sydney (away) then Melbourne the next 4 weeks for the Blues. Any supporters they have left since 2022 might be thinking August has come early this year. |
| DIPPER (5/05/2023 7:00:20 PM) Hawks must be a genuine chance against Freo this week. Jiath sits out, which saves the Hawks a goal, which could be important if the game is close. Should be close. Hawks highest score for the year was 80 against North down in Tassie (which tends to be a low scoring venue). North had already edged Freo in Perth the week before 73-72. Freo has managed a respectable score just twice this season. Once against the Eagles, when the Eagles finished the game with 7 blokes in hospital and just 15 fit players on the ground. The other was against the Witts-less Suns. I notice Breust is being managed, the first sign he is coming to the end of an illustrious career. Hopefully will clock up his 500th goal before he goes. When I look at the players on my team's list it is hard to find players who might get to that number. Ben Brown won't. McDonald, no. Even Bailey Fritsch, who has been reasonably prolific in recent seasons has fewer than 200 goals and is 26 already. 6 more 50 goal seasons would get him close, but no guarantee of that. Pickett has 100 goals up from 67 games. At that rate would need to play another 268 games (335 games total) to get to 500. Possible (he is only 21) but that seems a long way away. And, for kids like van Rooyen and Chandler it is way too early to say. Chandler reminds me a bit of Stephen Milne, in that every second time he kicks the ball he seems to get a goal. Since Milne, only Eddie Betts of the non-key forwards has clicked through the 500-goal mark, so it is an achievement not to be dismissed lightly. Which raises the important question: how will they replace him (Breust)? I think they should trade for Noah Cumberland. Similar goals/game rate as Breust. Similar size and shape, (or will be after another preseason and a few hundred hours in the gym). Clearly on the outer with the current Richmond coach, who keeps dropping him, bagging him at post-match pressers, etc. Genuine 500-goal career in the making with this guy, and if they can squeeze 13 or 14 more seasons out of him he might still be there the next time the Hawks are challenging for a flag. Important, though, to get that done this season, in case the Tigers have a new coach next season. How to do it? Hawks must be a big chance to win the "Harley Reid Cup" (first draft pick) this season. In a sense you wouldn't want to give up the number 1 pick for Cumberland, although, you would certainly have happily used number 1 to get Betts, Milne, Breust, or any other 500-goal small forward. On SEN earlier today (Cornes/Healey) suggested that the Hawks don't need Harley Reid, they need several young but ready-made players. They suggested the Hawks should trade their number 1 pick for Melbourne's first 3 picks. The earliest of them is tied to Freo, so tracking at pick 5 at the moment. Hawks could afford a first-rounder for Cumberland then and still have a strong draft hand. Meanwhile the Dees would have Reid, who would be ready to show his best in a few years time, when Lever, Oliver, Petracca and the rest of their current crop are seasoned veterans but still playing enough good footy to have them in contention. In 2026 the Dees will have these guys: Bowey (who will be aged 23 then) Brayshaw (30) Chandler (26) Fritsch (29) Gawn (34, maybe. Some ruckmen are still good at that age) Grundy (32) Harmes (30) Hunter (31) Jordan (25) Langdon (30) Lever (30) McVee (22) Neal-Bullen (30) Oliver (28) Petracca (30) Petty (26) Pickett (24) Rivers (24) Salem (30) Schache (28) Spargo (26) Sparrow (25) van Rooyen (22) That is a fairly useful core of a team that should be competitive (22 players listed there, plus Gawn). The point being made on SEN was that Melbourne doesn't need 3 top 20 draft picks this year. They already have 7 depth players who can't get a game that would walk into at least 8-10 sides at the moment (Brown, McDonald, Dunstan, Harmes, Melksham, Joel Smith, Tomlinson) and some youngsters who have had a game or two or are expected to debut in the next year or two (Jed Adams, Kyan Farris-White, Blake Howes, Mtthew Jefferson, Bailey Laurie, Andy Moniz-Wakefield, Oliver Sestan, Deakyn Smith, Daniel Turner, Kye Turner, Will Verall, Taj Woewodin) who are all in the 18-21 year age group. The point being made on SEN was that with all those players who cannot get a game yet the Dees don't need 3 draft picks this year, but if they got Harley Reid, and he turns out to be as good as they say he will be, then by 2026 he could be a key cog in a side that would have a similar age demographic to the 2022 all-conquering Cats. There is no doubt that while trying to remain in contention this year, the Dees a playing a long game, preferring 19-year-olds like van Rooyen and McVee to the tried and tested older guys currently running around in the VFL. So doing that deal (swapping 3 picks for the number 1 pick this year) is in their wheelhouse. The Hawks gave their second rounder to Sydney, so presently have only the one pick before number 27, but they could trade it for Melbourne's 3 early picks (currently 5, 17 & 23). Then the Hawks could do the deal for Cumberland and still have 3 picks in the top 27. |
| DIPPER (5/05/2023 5:26:39 PM) Interesting segment on 360 during the week about how Collingwood has made ruckmen irrelevant. (King, Montagna: "the Watch List"). They argue that despite the injuries to Cameron, Cox, etc they have been winning their share of clearances including at the centre bounce. Well, OK, but so have the mighty Hawks! Pies without genuine rucks the last couple of weeks have played 2 sides who won 15 of 44 games last season, got into losing positions in both before minor miracles occurred for them to scrape home. Does anyone really think that will hold up in September? Worth remembering the last couple of Septembers. Cats huge advantage last season was in their ruck setup, with Hawkins rucking forward 50 and the regular ruckman (Stanley) a kick behind play, helping to solidify the defence if they lost the clearance. Blicavs rucking between the arcs with Stanley a kick behind play. That is what won them the flag. In 2021 the Dees only advantage over the field was in the ruck with hitouts (and plenty to advantage). In the second half of the round 23 game at Geelong, once Stanley tired, Gawn took over the game, including kicking the winning goal after the siren, but also intercept marking in defence, taps to advantage, etc. In the prelim the Cats tried to keep Stanley fresher by sharing the load with Ratugolea and Blicavs, who Gawn rag-dolled and dominated, and kicked 5 goals in the game. In both the prelim and the GF that year the Dees kicked a stupendous number of goals from stoppage, including centre bounce, and much of that is to do with the ruckwork. And look around the competition, at virtually every club. West Coast's win rate when Natanui plays has them finals bound but bottom 6 when he doesn't play. Same with Saints last few seasons, comparing their win rate with both Ryder & Marshall (finals-bound) to their win rate when one missed (bottom 6). How are the grand finalists Sydney going with Hickey out of the team? Yes, they have had some other injuries, but when they lined up against Melbourne in round 3 Hickey was the only automatic selection missing. Hickey wasn't missing when the Swans defeated Melbourne at the same venue in September. How have the Tigers fared without Nankervis and Soldo? Three-time premiership coach Hardwick saw the game against Melbourne slipping away through the Dees ruck dominance and threw Balta in there in the last quarter. And here is the clincher. When Cox becomes available after injury do Montagna and King think he will be running around in the VFL or front and centre (square) in the AFL? If he plays in the AFL does that mean McRae doesn't know what he is doing? Same when Cameron becomes available. Montagna and King are generally insightful, but this one is not evidence-based. |
| BREN (5/05/2023 4:47:57 PM) Sorry for late reply, congrats to Frog and Andy on getting 9, nice one guys. |
| DIPPER (3/05/2023 3:07:11 PM) Just had a call from Bevo. Thanked me for dropping Hannan and sending JJ to half-back. He reckons using JJ as the distributor out of the backline means he can use Caleb Daniel further up the ground for scoreboard impact. Bevo thinks things are going reasonably well, but the Dogs are still out of the top 8, so he is keen to consider any other ideas we have for him. I don't watch the Dogs that closely, but maybe James has some thoughts on the subject. Post it here. |
| DIPPER (2/05/2023 1:32:13 PM) Had a call from Patrick Dangerfield, asking why he wasn't in the conversation for best midfielder. (Never ceases to amaze me who is reading this site.) Paddy reckons he is about to set the world record by picking up his ninth (!!) All-Australian jacket this year. What do you Cat supporters think? Is he better than the Bont? And Oliver? There seems no doubt Dusty put him in the shade up to and including 2020. Since then? Had a big grand final in 2022 (could have won the Norm Smith) in a match where they didn't need him to stand up (it was over at quarter time - Cats had 6.5 41 on the board by then and Swans 4.3 27 by 3/4 time and 8.4 52 for the match). In other finals he hasn't been super-impressive. I recall in 2018 against Melbourne they pushed him forward in a low-scoring game and Neville Jetta beat him in every one-on-one contest. 2021 Prelim no impact, 2021 qualifying final no impact. Probably you have to rate him ahead of Cripps (who has zero finals), but I am not sure about the rest. What should I tell him? |
| DIPPER (1/05/2023 5:18:24 PM) A third of the way through the season it is worth taking a moment to rate the coaches. Rated A (top bracket) to E (bottom bracket). To get an A rating must have at least one flag among other considerations. Adelaide – Matthew Nicks Career win percentage 33% That is an ordinary win rate, but you can argue that he hasn’t had the cattle during a long rebuild. No excuses this season. If he can’t make finals he should go. Rating: D Brisbane – Chris Fagan – 54% Club was second last with 3 wins the year before he took over, and he has got them up the pointy end for consecutive years. Best chance might have been 2020, when had a home preliminary final, but finished top 4 in 2021 and preliminary finalist in 2022. Genuine premiership threat this year. All facets of an A grade coach except a premiership. Rating: B Carlton – Michael Voss – 44% Record at Carlton is 50%, but career record is poor as didn’t appear up to it in his first stint at Brisbane. Not convinced he is up to it at all. Tell me the last time a side with the Coleman medallist and the Brownlow medallist, and the previous year’s Coleman medallist and a bunch of top ten draft picks didn’t make the finals. His coaching in August 2022 was woeful, particularly getting ambushed by the Crows in Adelaide, but also the last two losses from winning positions. Everything so far suggests below average. Rating: D Collingwood – Craig McRae – 72% Short career, but in terms of getting the best out of his list he is the best since John Northey in the late eighties. Can’t give any coach an A without a flag, so rating: B Essendon – Brad Scott – 51% Has done well to improve a couple of clubs. A 50% win rate with North at the time was pretty impressive (look at them lately, since he left). Now at the Bombers who haven’t won a final in forever, and appears to have lifted them, too. Rating: C Fremantle – Justin Longmuir – 50% The least inspiring of the current crop of coaches, and I am not sure (from listening to his post-match press conferences) that he has any idea. If he had a hand in the off-season trades that saw the end of their rise then he is worse than I thought. But a 50% win rate with Freo, which wins only 45% in its history, has been achieved by only a few, so I will give him the benefit of the doubt. Rating: C Geelong – Chris Scott – 70% Outstanding career win rate and the flags to go with it. Rating: A Gold Coast – Stuart Dew – 28% Pathetic win percentage, but actually on par with Gold Coast’s win rate over its entire history. Can’t be easy when you are effectively a development factory and feeder club for the wealthy and powerful. But, as the movie Moneyball shows, it is possible to be in contention in that environment. Rating: E GWS - Adam Kingsley – 43% Inherited a team that was 16th with 6 wins and appears likely to be better than that this year, despite the Tigers picking the eyes out of their midfield. Has already beaten some respectable sides (Adelaide, Sydney) but will rue missed opportunities against Carlton and West Coast. Just 7 games into his senior coaching career. Rating: C Hawthorn – Sam Mitchell – 31% Like McRae, only in his second season. Like McRae, inherited a side in the lower rungs of the ladder. Unlike McRae, has gone backwards rather than forwards. Unlike McRae, who is world champion at winning from lost positions, Mitchell is on world champion pace for losing from winning positions. Has had some challenges in respect of playing personnel (e.g. Lewis missing the first 6 games) but not nearly as many challenges as McRae has overcome injury-wise. Has owned up to the off-season trade decisions. Has overseen some development of younger players (Newcombe, Worpel, Day stand out) but at the same time other promising types seem to have gone backwards (Grainger-Barrass, Moore, Koschitzke). I think the “improvement” of the on-ball brigade is fake. We had already seen what Worpel could do with Tom Mitchell out of the way – B & F in 2019 when TM missed the season. Every club has players who attend most centre bounces and average collectively 80-100 possessions/week. You, me and the one-legged kid next door would average 70, because of the restrictions on numbers in the centre square, and the fickle bounce of the oval ball. Of greater concern is that he has got nothing out of Koschitzke, a 196 cm forward who kicked 5 goals in just his sixth game. Dylan Moore had a break-out season in 2021, kicking 27 goals in 20 games as a 21-year-old. Under Mitchell he has regressed to a goal/game player with limited impact, instead of progressing like a Stengle, K Pickett, Spargo, and Bolton to choose some players of his age, size and weight, who play the same position and have become premiership players. It must be possible to develop young players and remain in contention for finals and flags. Hardwick did it. Chris Scott did it. Goodwin did it. Hinkley did it. Beveridge did it. Et cetera. Rating: E Melbourne – Simon Goodwin – 58% The Dees were eleventh before he took them over, and apart from 2019 (when 19 listed players had surgeries pre-season) have been in the top half of the ladder ever since. Has recruited brilliantly, both with trades (Lever, May, Grundy, Brown) and the draft (Pickett, Jackson, Spargo, Fritsch, Petty, Sparrow, Jordan, Rivers, Bowey to name the premiership players) and the likes of van Rooyen, Chandler and McVee (the last two through the rookie draft). Has developed youngsters while still remaining in contention for finals. Has changed the wing role from being just another midfielder in the congestion to genuine old-style wing play, keeping width and running goalsquare to goalsquare, which all the good coaches are now copying. Has one flag and the prospect of more. Rating: A North – Alastair Clarkson – 58% Four flags is a decent start, although the most recent one seems a long time ago. At least 3 of those they were not the best team, so extra credit there. But left the Hawks in a shambles, and it is not clear he has improved North since going there. That may sound harsh (about North) but compare what the A grade coaches demonstrated in their first 7 games (Chris Scott at Geelong, for example). McRae at Collingwood and even Kingsley at GWS were able to show improvement of their club in 7 games, and they aren’t A grade (yet). It was obvious to me in early 2021 that the game had passed him by (I wrote that here often at that time) and eventually the entire footy world, including Clarko, realised it. I am not convinced that he has caught up with the game. His record 2016-2023 rates a D at best, but 4 flags is 4 flags! Rating: B Port – Ken Hinkley – 59% Excellent win rate and has kept his side in contention for finals pretty much throughout his career. His achievements to date in 2023 with the deficiencies in the list he has are pretty special. Tactically astute, which wins a lot of close games. Lacks a flag only. Rating: B Richmond – Damien Hardwick – 56% Three flags, good win rate, excellent in the trade game although just average in the draft. Tactically gets a lot right. Was the first to pursue inexact “chaos” football as a method and copied (to varying degrees) by all the good coaches. Cruelled by injury this season. Rating: A St Kilda – Ross Lyon – 58% Excellent win rate with two sides that have been historically poor (Fremantle 45% win rate, St Kilda 40%). 2023 has been impressive to date, given the injuries left their list in worse shape than Hawthorn’s so far this season. Tactically astute. Has everything but a flag. Rating: B Sydney – John Longmire – 63% Win rate second only to Chris Scott among current coaches. Just one flag, but always in contention with a side that has been traditionally weak for most of its history. Rating: A West Coast – Adam Simpson – 57% One flag and a good win percentage. Inability to regenerate the side after the 2018 flag must count against him. The flag winning A rated coaches in this list have kept their teams in finals contention year after year. Rating: B Western Bulldogs – Luke Beveridge – 57% One flag, good win rate. Took over a side that was bottom 6 the year before and had them in finals in his first season at the helm, and premiers the next. Just one bad season (2018) when dropped to thirteenth but been in finals every year since. Regenerated on the run and can win flags with his current squad. Rating: A |
| DIPPER (1/05/2023 12:20:30 AM) The ladder: I'm calling it after round 7. Only those sides currently in the top 10 will play finals. I think Essendon (9th) and Bulldog (10th) will sneak in, and a couple of the current top 8 will fall out, with those least likely to stay in (in order) being Carlton, Port, St Kilda and Adelaide. Collingwood have too many wins already to miss out, and Melbourne, Brisbane and Geelong are too stable. They will have the odd unexpected loss those three, but will all win enough games to guarantee finals. |
| DIPPER (1/05/2023 12:13:24 AM) Ladder comp: I'm calling it after round 7. Frog is the 2023 ladder champ. He currently leads on 52 from Bren 58, Adam 62, Matt, Trent & Andy on 64. The rest of us are playing for draft picks (again!). |
| DIPPER (1/05/2023 12:09:37 AM) Observations on today's games. Geelong-Essendon Looks like everyone else is playing for second. Hawkins/Cameron/Stengle kicked another 11 today, and if you include the 2 kicked by Simpson (who has replaced Stengle since he got injured) it was 13. Leaking some scores but that won't matter much with the scores they are kicking. I am calling it now. Richmond-Gold Coast Impossible to watch coming off the quality of Geelong-Essendon. Every time the Suns win a game (which is usually about 2 in 5) the "can they make finals" comes out. The answer is no. Adelaide-Collingwood De ja vu all over again! Amazing by Collingwood, but they kicked 8.11 59, and the Crows should have had ten goals (60) by quarter time! Crows have kicked a total of 29 goals 50 behinds in their three losses. Deplorable! The next behind to be kicked should be that of whoever the goalkicking coach is down there. |
| DIPPER (30/04/2023 9:33:20 AM) Round 7 observations continued Dogs-Hawks Lot to like about the Hawks in that game, because I still think the Dogs will be preliminary finalists. Won some key metrics, including clearance, possessions and contested possessions. Good to see Lewis back and clunking marks; a shame he didn't have his kicking boots on. But seeing that makes me certain the Hawks would have two more wins in the bag if they had played Koschitzke instead of Wingard over the previous fortnight. Have any of you Hawk supporters noticed that Dylan Moore and Chad Wingard are playing one position between them? They never both kick goals in the same game. Moore is the future, and will benefit from having Wingard out and another tall, like Koschitzke, in. Dees often play all of Pickett, Chandler, Spargo and Neal-Bullen. That works because they all have different attributes and play different roles. But Wingard and Moore are playing the same role and have similar attributes, and it doesn't work. Dogs were OK, winning the inside 50 count 58-47 despite a rare loss in the clearance battle. Just more polish, and Naughton kicked straighter than Lewis, which won't always happen. I give the Hawks a genuine chance against Freo over there next week, and if I saw, "Koschitzke in, Wingard out" would put my money where my mouth is. Eagles-Blues About what everyone expected, with the Eagles playing Carlton back into form just at the right time. Get the beers in the fridge and the pizzas delivered for a cracking game Friday night when the Blues host the Lions. The Lions are favourites with the bookies, but always are vulnerable away from home. Last time they played at Docklands they kicked 7.11 53 (against the Dogs). Last night Curnow kicked 9.3 57! Dees-Roos About what everyone expected. Petracca obviously didn't like me suggesting Bontompelli was a better player than him and responded with 35 possessions (16 contested) 3 goals, two goal assists and 14 score involvements and 552 metres gained. 35 possessions is a lot for a bloke who played primarily forward (only 13 centre bounce attendances for the night, as Dees had 11 players sharing that load). 2025 Norm Smith medalist Tom Sparrow had 17 centre bounce attendances, for example. North's endeavour could not be faulted, as demonstrated by kicking the last 3 goals of the game against a side coming off a 6-day break, but their list is very ordinary. Can't see a player on their list that would get a game at Melbourne. Cunnington is a solid citizen. He could be an extra rotation through the centre square, but where would you hide him when you want your "A team" (Oliver/Petracca/Viney) in there? Sheezel gets the ball a lot but doesn't hurt you. 30 possessions for 264 metres gained? That is 8.8 metres/possession. WTF? That puts him in the dark old days of Tom Mitchell at Hawthorn. By way of comparison Brayshaw averaged 11 metres/possession, Rivers 17.2 (double Sheezel), Bowey 21.7 and Hibberd 23.5 (more than 3 times Sheezel). And Melbourne handballs much more than North; on Saturday night both teams had 228 kicks, Melbourne had 191 handballs to North 127. It would be a shame if a talented youngster becomes a useless stat-gatherer under the Messiah, chipping the ball sideways most of the time. Couldn't see Larkey getting a game with all of van Rooyen, Brown, McDonald, Petty and Schache to choose from. Zurhaar couldn't be preferred to Fritsch. The most decorated player on their list is Todd Goldstein, but he wouldn't force Gawn or Grundy out of the side. Have missed finals the last 6 years and been last or second last for the last 3 years, it is remarkable that their list is in such poor shape. |
| DIPPER (30/04/2023 7:57:52 AM) Observations on round 7 games so far. Port-Saints Somehow Port did it again, despite losing all the key metrics. They were -40 possessions, -5 in clearances, -5 inside 50s. Probably have to put it down to the Saints coming off a five-day break; the GPS data showed they covered 11.25 km less than their average for the first 6 rounds, down around 4%. As David King likes to say, “it’s not who you play, it is when you play them”. But perhaps the Saints are running out of steam. Their average km travelled in the first 4 rounds was 290.8. Over the last 3 weeks it was only 274.8. That is 16 km/game less, a massive drop-off. The average of the six winning sides in this round to date has been 283.1, a significant amount more than the Saints have been able to achieve over the last 3 weeks. They come up against the Messiah’s Witches Hats next week. Those Witches Hats clocked 288.4 km against the Dees, so the Saints will need to find something. The nine-day break might help. Lions-Freo About what everyone expected. Giants-Swans I am going to have to request my tips be reduced by 1, as the Swans won this game everywhere except the scoreboard. Not quite sure what to make of the Swans. After flogging two bottom 4 sides they were at full strength when they lost by 50 in round 3 against the Dees. Lost both McCartins in game 4 against Port, but almost pinched it anyway. The next two weeks put out a side with no tall defenders for a 44-point win against the Tigers and a 93-point drubbing at the hands of Geelong (a mere 23-goal turn-around). One McCartin back this week but the Giants kick 17 goals, but only 4 from their tall forwards. Speaking of which, despite the rave reviews pre-season, Aaron Cadman ain’t the new Jonathon Coleman. Swans could still play finals but the data to date suggests they are better than the bottom 6 sides only (Suns, Freo, North, Richmond, Hawthorn, West Coast). They have six games to come against that lot; peg them for 5 wins. They have 3 wins in the bank, giving them 8. They probably have to split their other 10 games 50-50 to make finals. Possible, but not certain. Giants are also 3-4, but no finals hope. Crows should have wrapped up their game against the Giants by half-time, Hawks playing any footballer but Jiath would have beaten them, and Sydney got them everywhere but the scoreboard today. But it is a good outcome for the competition, the more teams mathematically in the race for finals the better. |
| DIPPER (28/04/2023 12:01:36 PM) Bontompelli plays his 200th game. Is he, or has he ever been the best player in the AFL? Interesting question. Hard to compare a midfielder with other candidates, such as Jeremy Cameron and Charlie Curnow, who both have claims to being the best player today, or Max Gawn, who has claims to being the most influential player in the game today (and for the past several years). So, let us first see how Bontompelli stacks up against other midfielders. The other candidates for best midfielder in the competition (today) are Cripps, Petracca and Oliver. It is worth noting that in the period 2017-2020 Dusty Martin was the best midfielder in the game. I think that is indisputable; his record (premierships, Brownlow, Coaches awards, All-Australian jumpers, B & Fs, Norm Smith medals, etc) speaks for itself. I take Cripps out of the conversation, for one obvious reason: as Dusty showed reputations are cemented and/or enhanced in finals, and Cripps is yet to get there. A good comparison exists with Petracca, as both Bontompelli and Petracca are the same age, although the Bont has clocked up 43 more games than Petracca. Over their careers (to date) I reckon Bontompelli has Petracca covered. Bontompelli has averaged more clearances and metres gained, and they have had almost identical scoreboard impact over the journey, with Petracca marginally ahead on average score involvements (6.8 to 6.6) and score assists (0.9 to 0.8) while both average 0.9 goals/game. Certainly, Bontompelli has more individual accolades: 4 All-Australians to 3, 4 B & Fs to 1, an MVP and a coaches award trophy (Petracca has neither). Of course, the Bont would exchange a few of those awards for the 2021 Norm Smith medal. That leaves just one candidate: Clayton Oliver. A couple of years younger than Bontompelli, and has played 47 games fewer, but can match Bontompelli in the individual awards categories. Oliver has 2 Coaches awards, 3 All-Australians, 4 B & Fs. One less All-Australian, but the Bont had two season head-start. If you compare their career stats the Bont narrowly edges Oliver for scoreboard impact: score involvements 6.6 to 6.2, goal assists 0.8 to 0.6 and goals 0.9 to 0.3. In every other key category Oliver has a big gap over Bontompelli. Clearances 6.9 to 4.8. Disposals 29.2 to 23.3. Contested possessions 15.7 to 10.9. Intercept possessions 3.7 to 2.5. Tackles 5.9 to 5. You can argue that Bontompelli is a better kick than Oliver, but that is not so clear. 56% of Bontompelli's possessions are uncontested, giving him time and space to take his kick. 54% of Oliver's possessions are contested, meaning he has less time and space to dispose of the ball. Oliver is the best handballer in the game today, and right up there with Greg Williams as the best of all time. So, despite a significantly larger chunk of Oliver's possessions being contested, he actually edges the Bont in disposal efficiency (71% to 70%). When Oliver has the same time and space as Bontompelli his kicking is excellent. He can nail a set shot (e.g. on the 3/4 time siren from 50 last week) or on the run (e.g. the last goal of the third quarter of the 2021 grand final). There was a signature moment about 8 minutes into the final quarter of the 2021 GF when Oliver roved the ruck tap and was immediately tackled by both Treloar and Martin but had the strength to shrug off Martin and roost it 50 metres down the ground with Treloar still hanging off him. When you are kicking the ball under that sort of pressure it will never look pretty. Both Bont and Oliver came into sides in the bottom half of the table. The Dogs were 14th in 2014, (15th the year before) the debut season of Bontompelli, while the Dees were 11th in Oliver's debut season (13th the year before). The Dees have won 57.84% of all games Oliver has played, while the Dogs have won 55.28% of the games Bontompelli has played. Overall, if I was back in the school playground and picking sides for a game of football today, and looking only at midfielders, I would take Oliver at number 1, Bontompelli 2, Petracca 3 and Cripps at number 4. In my view Bontompelli has never been the best midfielder in the game: it was Dusty up to and including 2020 and it has been Oliver since. |
| PRES (27/04/2023 10:55:19 AM) Nice going on the tip 9 Bacon and Frog. |
| DIPPER (25/04/2023 9:41:26 PM) Ladder update: Bren 64; Frog 66; Clare, Matt 72; Trent, Adam 74; Andy 76; James 80; Dipper 82; Rodney 84, Karen, Pete, Pres 86; Nato 94, Tossa 130. |
| DIPPER (25/04/2023 9:25:21 PM) 6 Brisbane 4 wins 2 losses What I said pre-season: top 4 What I think now: top 4. Already beaten Melbourne and Collingwood in Brisbane and might go undefeated there this season. Steady without being scintillating away from home but have enough Witches Hats games to finish top 4. 5 Adelaide 4 wins 2 losses What I said pre-season: will make finals What I think now: will make finals. Only team in the competition to have won their last 4 games. Outstanding forward line, competitive midfield and efficient, no-name backs. Some decent “depth” players running around in the reserves. Have Darren Burgess, the fitness bloke that got the Dees to a flag in his second season at Melbourne, in his second season at Adelaide. In 2021 the Dees “wobbled” between rounds 10 and 19 (played 9, won 4 lost 4 drew 1) due to “load building” to peak in September. From round 20 through to the grand final won all second halves, by an average of 35 points, in games that included the Eagles in Perth, the Cats at Kardinia Park and three finals. Look out for the Crows to do something similar this year. 4 Essendon 4 wins 2 losses What I said pre-season: will make finals What I think now: will make finals. The only side in the top 4 to have played all the other 3 top 4 sides in the first six rounds, for one win and two losses. If two metre Peter gets back for the second half of the season it will give them a different look. Tough three weeks coming up (Cats, Port away, Brisbane away) before three in a row against bottom 4 sides. If they split those 6 3-3 they will go into the bye in good shape. 3 Melbourne 4 wins 2 losses What I said pre-season: top 4. What I think now: top 4. Had an interrupted first 6 weeks with Gawn, May, Lever, Hibberd & Brown all missing multiple games with injury, and Salem yet to appear. Hibberd is close to the most under-rated player in the game. Gets big jobs and rarely fails, including on Dusty in 2021, kept Charlie Cameron scoreless in round 15 last year, thrown onto Cumberland Monday night when he was out of control and pretty much kept him kickless after that, while racking up 23 disposals of his own. Got some serious depth: Ben Brown, Tom McDonald, Jake Melksham, James Harmes, Luke Dunstan, Adam Tomlinson and a few others played in the reserves this week. I reckon if you added those 6 to Hawthorn’s list even Mr Masterclass would get the Hawks into the finals, as none of those guys are into accepting mediocrity, and their values would soon flow through the team. (Plus the Hawks would have somebody taller than me to kick to in the forward line.) 2 Collingwood 5 wins 1 loss What I said pre-season: slider, 6th to 10th. What I think now: almost certain to make finals, and a chance for top 4. It is a long season, and they have their injury challenges, but are absolutely brilliantly coached to get the best out of the current list. At times in their last couple of games it looked like the shortage of talls would cost them, but they got over the line both times. Will want to lock it in by August as in their last 6 there is only one soft kill (the Hawthorn Witches Hats), the other 5 being Port (away), Carlton, Geelong, Brisbane & Essendon. 1 St Kilda 5 wins 1 loss What I said pre-season: bottom 4 What I think now: cannot finish bottom 4. Likely finalist. Will they make finals? They missed from 8-3 last season (by a game and a good chunk of percentage), and look certain to get to at least 8-3 again, with North, Giants & Hawks in their next 5. Endeavour, hard running and good coaching have got them this far, but on paper, just looking at the talent on their list, and the injuries you could mount case for every one of the sides currently second to eleventh to beat them, and even some of those lower on the ladder. But even if they fall off a cliff again after an 8-3 start in rounds 18-20 they have Suns, North & Hawthorn, so it would be an amazing collapse if they missed the finals again this season. |
| DIPPER (25/04/2023 9:22:03 PM) 12 GWS Giants 2 wins 4 losses What I said pre-season: missing finals but would beat some finalists What I think now: missing finals but would beat some finalists. So far, the only (potential) finalist they have beaten is Adelaide but have a chance against injury-depleted Swans next week, and home games against Dogs, Saints, Tigers, Swans, and Essendon to come. Unlikely to lose all those games and you would expect that at least 3 of those 5 sides will play finals. 11 Western Bulldogs 3 wins 3 losses What I said pre-season: finalists with a chance to win it all. What I think now: finalists with a chance to win it all. Have had a tough draw to date: Port (away), the ladder-leading Saints and 4 of last season’s finalists (Melbourne, Brisbane, Tigers, and Dockers) and I think 3-3 is acceptable. Took a little while for the midfield to adjust to the absence of Dunkley, but they seem to be humming now. Weightman is important and he was missed in the two early losses. English is carrying all before him and may well edge Gawn for All-Australian ruckman this year (given Gawn has missed 4 games already – 5 effectively, as he was subbed out in the first quarter when injured). Interested to see who wins the battle of wills between Beveridge and Darcy. Will Darcy pull his head in and play the way Beveridge wants him to? Will Bevo leave Darcy out in the cold for the remainder of the season? With Weightman back in and the midfield dominating I can still see the 4 tall forwards working in August/September. 10 Sydney Swans 3 wins 3 losses What I said pre-season: over-achieved in 2022 but likely finalists 2023. What I think now: over-achieved in 2022 and injuries makes their chances of making finals borderline. Geelong showed last round how you beat up a side of midgets. Exactly why the Tigers failed to do so and Port almost managed to blow it is beyond my understanding. 9 Geelong 3 wins 3 losses What I said pre-season: top 4 What I think now: top 4. Slow start, but a percentage of 137.7 says it all. At their best they kill everyone. At their home ground they kill everyone. Plenty of home games to come. Plenty of time to be at their best. In 2022 started 4-5 and then won just about every game. Could do something similar this year. 8 Carlton 3 wins 1 draw 2 losses What I said pre-season: likely to just miss the 8. What I think now: likely to just miss the 8. To match last season McKay, Curnow and Cripps would need to reproduce what they did last year. Curnow has done that, McKay has not and, although Cripps has had plenty of the ball he hasn’t yet hit the scoreboard like he did last season. The last two Coleman winners but the worst team in the league in converting an inside 50 to a goal. Still no sign of a 30+ goal small forward. Now that Walsh is back they could do worse than have him in the centre square and play Cripps as a permanent forward. 7 Port 4 wins 2 losses What I said pre-season: bottom half of the ladder. What I think now: They have won a few games I didn’t expect them to. Puts them in range of the top 8 but I still don’t think they have the structure to achieve that over a long season. Rucks not good enough. Key backs not tall enough. Key forwards not 50+ goals/season players. Best small forward (Fantasia) always injured. Midfielders mostly too young (Rozee, Butters, Horn-Francis). Round 1 beat Brisbane by 9 goals and round 2 lost to Collingwood by 12 goals. Which one of those results is real? Hard to say. But if they make finals they won’t win one on what they have shown this season. |
| DIPPER (25/04/2023 9:18:47 PM) Six rounds in and what do we know? What do I think now compared to pre-season? Let’s begin at the bottom of the ladder and work our way up. 18 Hawthorn 1 win 5 losses What I said pre-season: Bottom 6, but good to be released from the curse of Tom Mitchell. What I think now: Bottom 6, but clearance work has been a shining light since being released from the curse of Tom Mitchell. Would benefit from having Mitch Lewis back, as need a better key target up forward. Have tried a few defenders up there late in games. Would like to see Koschitzke playing in the absence of Lewis, but unfortunately, he and Wingard don’t get on, and the club has preferred to play Wingard. Compare what the good sides do, with the Dees playing a nineteen-year-old with 6 goals in his career while two veterans each with 50+ goal seasons are in the reserves. Seems crazy to have traded out all that experience to prepare for the future and then play Wingard instead of Koschitzke. Query about whether the coach is up to it. Has now lost 6 games where they led in the last quarter in just 28 games; that is world record pace. Way too accepting of mediocrity. Mr Masterclass was impressed with narrow loss to Melbourne in 2022 when the Dees had 7 topliners out with covid. When Essendon (who finished lower on the ladder than Hawthorn in 2022) got a crack at Brisbane at the Gabba when Brisbane was similarly covid-afflicted the Bombers won that game. When the coach accepts mediocrity that must flow through to the players, affecting their preparation, professionalism, training standards, and so on. And all that leads to losing too many winnable games. 17 West Coast 1 win 5 losses What I said pre-season: no finals but expected to improve on injury-smashed 2022. What I think now: no finals, but will improve on just two wins last season, despite being smashed by injury again. 16 Richmond 1 win 1 draw 4 losses What I said pre-season: likely to make finals. What I think now: another side which might have to lower their expectations after being smashed by injury. But, on the bright side, if they do get key players back (Nankervis, Lynch, Tarrant, Soldo, etc) and make finals they will be in top shape and form at the right time of the year. Taranto and Hopper have given them what they craved, which is competitiveness at clearance, but the absence of key talls has cruelled them recently. Left them unable to exploit an injury-riddled Swans, and over-run by the Melbourne talls who took 18 contested marks on the night. Pre-season I said Cumberland would be the key to their scoring. Hardwick was savage on him in the post-match presser Monday night, but they certainly look more likely when he plays than when he doesn’t. If they get back to a forward line with Lynch, Riewoldt, Cumberland, Dusty and Shai Bolton that is as good as any in the league and could be the launching pad for a late tilt at making finals. 15 North 2 wins 4 losses What I said pre-season: bottom 4 What I think now: bottom 4. Began with narrow wins against the (very ordinary) WA sides, but when they couldn’t beat Hawthorn, you knew it was a dead cat bounce. Haven’t really watched them since (“nothing to see here”) but the experts are querying the coaching, saying the players don’t seem to have any idea of what they are supposed to be doing, particularly defensively. When Brisbane takes 33 marks inside 50, most of them uncontested, you must think the experts might be right for a change. 14 Gold Coast Suns 2 wins 4 losses What I said pre-season: bottom 6 What I think now: bottom 6. Some people expected improvement with King back from a knee. He finally marked a few against North, but that is the same North that gave up 33 marks inside 50 the week before. Miller is a loss, and the last month of the season could be another wipe-out. 13 Fremantle 2 wins 4 losses What I said pre-season: sliding down the ladder and missing finals What I think now: sliding down the ladder and missing finals. Lucky to have any wins, as West Coast ran out of soldiers and Gold Coast ran out of puff. (Also got the Suns with Witts out, and it was their big guys that steered them home late.) Big guys win games! Don’t know how often this needs to be repeated before people get the message. Yet this mob traded out Lobb, Logue and Meek, and brought in only Jackson. Now Taberner, Fyfe, Switkowski all injured it is little wonder they can’t kick enough goals. |
| DIPPER (25/04/2023 9:04:42 PM) Observations on Collingwood-Essendon Looked like 2 finals sides playing a finals-like game. Bombers had the game on their terms at 3/4 time, but let it slip. Brad Scott has been pretty good strategically this season, but I thought there was a clear tactical mistake repeated throughout the final quarter. The Dons had a big ruck advantage, and that was evident from the Stringer goal late in the third quarter where, at a forward 50 stoppage the ruckman knocked it well clear of the milling pack for Stringer to run onto it and goal. In the Monday night game, when the Melbourne ruckmen got on top they were knocking the ball forward of the stoppage every time, which meant any Melbourne player who got hold of it was already streaming towards goal. Today in the last quarter Essendon set up defensively at stoppages, so the ruckman had to knock it sideways or backwards towards his rovers. But the fickle bounce of the ball meant that it was just as often the player of the opposing side got first hands on the ball, and they would be streaming towards goal. If they had knocked the ball forward each time (and set up for this), worst case a Collingwood bloke gets it, but he has 3 guys bearing down on him and has to rush a kick from the back of the stoppage. Best case a Bomber gets to it first and is already tearing towards goal at the front of the stoppage. In other cases, neither side gets a clear possession, and there is another stoppage, but if you are always knocking it 10 yards in the direction of your own goal, that can only help. Sounds like a small thing in the context of a football game, but I reckon it was the difference between winning and losing today. The defensive setup at stoppage was only in the last quarter, when they were trying to protect a lead, "save" the game. (Earlier in the game for example you saw Draper knocking the ball forward and then following it up with taps and soccers and general fumbling, but at least moving the ball forward.) And that gave the Pies the opportunity to dominate territory as they did. When the Dons did get the clearance, it was scrounging a kick forward under pressure and without direction. In those games where both sides lead during the last quarter, the better coaches have success. On Monday night Goodwin used his side's ruck dominance to force Hardwick to move Balta into the ruck. Balta had kept van Rooyen kickless to that point, but with Balta in the ruck the Tigers had nobody left to go with van Rooyen in the air. But if the Dees ruckmen had been knocking the ball sideways and backwards every time (like Essendon in the final quarter) Hardwick would have just let them do that. |
| DIPPER (24/04/2023 11:46:35 PM) Observations on Melbourne-Richmond. Pre-season I observed that Melbourne would be happy to start 3-3 with the draw they had. Given how banged up the Weagles were when they played them, and how banged up the Tigers were tonight, nothing less than 4-2 was acceptable. Interesting decision to play Brown and McDonald in the VFL and have van Rooyen, Petty and (part time) Gawn as the contested marking forward targets. Nearly back-fired (they were about to sub van Rooyen out when he clunked that screamer and kicked the goal) but in the end paid dividends on the night. But not just on the night. The kid is 19, and the Dees will be hoping he plays dozens of games in front of 80,000 plus over the next 15 years. That experience tonight would be worth two dozen "normal" games. Rebuilding on the run. Hardwick is an outstanding coach. Their full forward and both their ruckmen out injured (plus other talls, like Tarrant), yet he still cobbled together a game plan that got them close, and might have even won the game if they had converted some set shots. Tiges will string some wins together later in the season when they get a few players back. But it confirms Richmond were uncharacteristically poor against the injury depleted Swans last week. Voss might learn something from Hardwick. Feeling the game was slipping away in the third quarter, he decided not to wait until it was too late, and he tried something. (Miller subbed off, Balta into the ruck, etc.) Yes, they still lost the game. Yes, it was the guy Balta had kept kickless with 3 last quarter goals from big marks. But he wasn't going to die wondering, by leaving Miller in the ruck and having Gawn and Grundy take the game away from them. Nice try. |
| DIPPER (23/04/2023 10:58:49 PM) Jiath update. Just saw some vision on First Crack that shows that while Captain Sicily was cooling his heels on the interchange bench, the spare defender the Hawks put behind the ball was Jiath. He was the one who should have been third man up,smashing the ball over the boundary when Fogarty marked, and coolly slotted the winning goal. Jiath seemed to have no idea what was going on, and sat by himself about 20 metres from where the ball was, so any random kick forward was going to clear him easily, and leave him unable to impact the next contest. Would Luke Beveridge put up with that? Would Craig ("we train to win the close ones") McRae put up with that? And yet he will get a game again next week. Only at Hawthorn under Mr Masterclass could that happen. I understand the Hawks list is pretty ordinary, but they must have some footballers on the list who aren't going to cough up a completely unnecessary goal every week, and cost your side about a quarter of their winnable games each season. |
| DIPPER (23/04/2023 8:36:16 PM) Observations on Sunday's games Hawks-Crows After not having time to watch most of the matches this weekend, I got to see this one, which turned out to be borderline unwatchable despite the closeness of the scores. 100 ruck contests? Even in the teaming rain of Port-Bulldogs there were only 80. 100 in perfect conditions? Hopeless. Mr. Masterclass, in his post-match presser was impressed that the Hawks had 80 tackles. Really? 100 times one of the umpires puts in the air, and 93 of those times 6 players fall in a heap on the ball, and somebody gets credited with a tackle. And that impresses you? In the third quarter debacle against the Cats (ten goals 5 behinds to nothing) the Hawks laid 19 tackles. Mr. Masterclass is easily impressed. Another tragic outcome for Mr. Masterclass and his Hawks. Winnable games, leading in the final quarter thrown away two weeks running. At the key moment, when the Hawks were protecting a lead of more than a goal and needed one more tall behind the ball where was Captain Sicily? On the Interchange bench? WTF? Hawks have history with this type of error. In the last quarter of the 2012 grand final it took the Hawks medicos 5 full minutes to stem the bleeding from the head of Luke Hodge, which should take no longer than 45 seconds for any medical person who knows his stuff. Hodge missed more minutes of that game than Joel Selwood missed throughout his entire 355-game career getting his head bandaged several hundred times. Looked to me like that cost the Hawks the flag in 2012. Worst performance of the year for the Crows, even in their two losses to date they have played at least one decent quarter worthy of an AFL finalist. But learning to "win ugly" is part of making your way up from the bottom half of the ladder to finals, so they will be happy (relieved) to rack up the 4 points. An issue for the Crows later in the year is that some of their rivals for a top 8 position have already had a percentage boost against the Hawks, and others will in future rounds. Suns-Roos About what everyone expected. Suns are no good and the Roos even worse. Saints-Blues Strange game. Until midway through the third quarter it seemed to me that the Saints had the game completely under control except on the scoreboard. Every time the Saints looked set to get the scoreboard under control the Blues were gifted a goal with a free kick or 50 metre penalty. (How many of their 8 goals came this way? All of them? Certainly, it was most of them.) When that source of scoring finally dried up, the Blues were never a chance. Pre-season I said that I thought Carlton would miss finals again because it would be impossible for McKay/Curnow/Cripps to reproduce their 2022 seasons. Curnow and Cripps have done that (noting that, for the first time in my memory, both Cripps AND Walsh were top contributors for Carlton today) but McKay with just 8 goals this season, is well off his 58 and 45 in the last two seasons. Today they reminded me of Hawthorn in the last couple of Clarko years. Halfway through the last quarter, three-and-a-half goals down, they chip their way across the half-back line and back again, doing what should have been St Kilda's job of running down the clock. Just go for it! You never know!! If you win a couple of contests in front of the ball or get favoured by a couple more dodgy umpiring decisions, you might even pinch a game you didn't deserve. The last goal of the game was at the 3-minute mark of the final quarter, and the last Carlton goal 2 minutes before that. What were they trying to do? Protect their percentage? I reckon these Carlton players are over-coached. Just let them play footy! Blues have to travel to Perth next week. West Coast are a shambles, but still scoring more than the Blues, so that one is not in the bank yet. Then comes a horror run: Brisbane, Bulldogs, Pies, Swans, Dees and Bombers. Could easily sink without trace like they did at the end of 2022. I dips me lid to Ross Lyon yet again. Much as I have no respect for Port in 2023, however, the data says that the Saints can't get up off a 5-day break and play their style based around manic intensity. They will start favourites at Marvel, but the GPS tracker data suggests they will struggle. I mentioned they did a phenomenal 310 km collectively against the Bombers, but it has been sliding since that peak and settled at around 280 the last two rounds. Let's see what they have in the tank for Friday night. |
| DIPPER (22/04/2023 10:30:10 PM) Halfway through the round the ladder is already starting to look more normal, with the Cats up in the top 8, seeing the leading score drop from 74 at the end of last round, to 66 (Bren & Frog) as of Saturday night. |
| DIPPER (22/04/2023 10:27:12 PM) Some observations on round 6 to date. Geelong-Sydney I will start here as it is the only game I have watched so far. No surprise to me the result and the margin. Everywhere you looked in both 50 metre arcs the Cats had 3-4 inches on their direct opponents. Dominated the air like they should have. I was perplexed that Richmond failed to do the same thing last week, and that Port nearly blew the opportunity the week before. Another ten for the Hawkins/Cameron/Stengle trio; 12 if you count Simpson who played Stengle's role this week. That is 32 in 3 weeks; easily on target to exceed the 180 goals those three kicked last season. If they do, everyone else is playing for second. Dogs-Freo seemed to confirm that the Dockers are no good. Pre-season the plan was to have a dominant midfield kicking it to the tall forward line, but against Freo the midfield was so dominant that they kicked most of the goals themselves. Port still continues to surprise me, doing it comfortably over the Eagles. I might have misjudged them, but it is a long season. Lions did enough to beat the Giants in what looked like a danger game for the Lions. Gunston/Hipwood/Daniher held to just 5 goals will win you plenty of games against Brisbane, but Cameron bobs up with a lazy 7. |
| PRES (21/04/2023 1:11:32 PM) Funny stuff! https://www.afl.com.au/news/908235/freo-fans-launch-lobb-inspired-beer-as-ex-docker-braces-for-return  |
| DIPPER (20/04/2023 10:42:40 PM) A few words about Nick Daicos. I am not even sure why there seems to be a debate about Nick Daicos. I think any truly knowledgeable football aficionado would be able to say, "Amazingly gifted footballer. Wish he was on my team. Will win numerous individual awards in the game." For me, the only interesting thing is how they use him. Daicos (in the Collingwood games I have watched) nominally starts on the left half back flank, but then roams the ground as he sees fit, like an old-fashioned centreman. (I say old-fashioned, because I still remember the days where players played a position: full back, half-back flank, wing, ruck-rover, etc. These days there are just a "back 6 (or 7), on-ballers, and forwards".) Different coaches have tackled the way Daicos plays in different ways. Fagan (who always let Tom Mitchell rack up a million touches when Mitchell was at Hawthorn) just let him do his stuff and worked on exploiting his absence from the backline by turning the ball over AND attacking through the right half forward flank, where the absence of the opponent's half-back flanker would create space (and outnumber opportunities) for the Brisbane forwards. The way Daicos plays reminds me of Brad Hardie in 1985, when he won the Brownlow medal playing in the back pocket for Footscray. He could be seen leaving his opponent, charging out of defence to intercept the ball, taking several bounces along the wing, and delivering to the forwards. It was breathtaking stuff, and no wonder it caught the eye of the umpires. Forensic analysis, however, showed that 143 of the 286 goals that Footscray conceded that season came through his side of the ground, often because the opponents had brought the ball back into the attacking zone before Hardie had got back into position, and they were caught a defender short. Footscray bowed out in the preliminary final that year (to Hawthorn). It was a tight match, with 10 points the final margin (and about the biggest margin of the day). Hardie had more than twice as many disposals as his direct opponent (Ken Judge) that day, but Judge kicked 4 goals. Had there been Brownlow medal votes at stake Hardie might well have featured (he had more kicks than anyone else on the ground). Alas, it was a grand final at stake, and the 4 goals Ken Judge kicked proved more valuable on the day. I mention all this because it was my observation that both Brisbane and St Kilda scored the majority of their goals by attacking the flank that Daicos had vacated. Brisbane did that brilliantly. The Saints did too, except that on at least six occasions when they just needed to execute a kick over the back of the Collingwood defence to find their free forward running into an open goal they kicked it directly to Moore and Quaynor. Worth keeping an eye on. |
| DIPPER (19/04/2023 2:00:47 PM) Worth looking at some early season trends. Every team that has played in Perth has lost the next week. This used to be a big thing many years ago, that sides couldn't get up after the long flight, but this season it INCLUDES both WA sides. Two Victorian sides have gone to Perth, won there, and lost the next week. Dees had a solid win against West Coast over there, but then lost to Essendon the next week. North went over there and edged Fremantle, but then lost to the Witches Hats the next week. Both times the Melbourne sides were travelling interstate for the second consecutive week, and the Dees had just a six-day break before taking on the Bombers. The WA sides failing to win the week after playing in Perth (ignoring the Derby, as both had played in Perth the week before, and one of them had to win) may just be because they are no good. In round 5 the Suns got overrun late (by Freo) traveling interstate for the second consecutive week. Giants travelled interstate for the second week in a row in round 5, and barely beat the Hawthorn Witches Hats, being significantly outscored from half-way through the third quarter by the side that had lost every second half of the season to date, most by considerable margins. And Collingwood, second week traveling interstate, were saved by the bell when the Saints stormed home with the last 5 scores (3.2 20) of the game. 16 sides traveled interstate in round 5. In round 6 the Dogs go to Perth, the Eagles go to Adelaide again, both the Giants and Lions go to Canberra, Swans go to Kardinia Park, Hawks go to Tassie, and North go to Carrara. Is there a bet in there somewhere? If the Giants home game was actually in Sydney that would help; Canberra kind of confuses the issue. But an all-up bet on Freo/Port/Giants/Cats/Crows/Suns pays $12.76 for a dollar. If you exclude the Giants (as, by playing in Canberra, rather than Sydney, they are technically traveling interstate, too) it pays $3.67. What do we think about Brisbane? Kicked a cricket score against The Messiah in neutral territory, but since the "dead cat bounce" peaked in round 2 North has been pretty poor. Before that Brisbane got flogged by Port and beaten by the lowly Bulldogs when traveling interstate. The last 10 games they have played on the road (ignoring the neutral venue last week) they have won 3 and lost 7. They have averaged 79 points for and 95 against, for a percentage of 83. In 2022 Brisbane averaged 98 for and 82 against for the season (percentage 119), so their last ten road trips have been more than 5 goals worse than their average performance. In their entire history (all venues) Giants have won as many as they have lost against Brisbane, and that includes those early seasons when they won one or two games (9 in the first three seasons) before they became competitive. Conclusion: $3.48 Giants looks attractive. Beat Crows round 1 (how many sides will beat the Crows this season?), pushed Essendon in Melbourne and the Bombers, like the Crows, are flying at the moment. Have kicked inaccurately this season to date (56 goals 67 behinds - 45% scoring accuracy) which is strange, as their mainstays (Hogan and Greene) have a lifetime combined 514 goals and 324 behinds (over 61%). So, plenty of upside for GWS there. Overall I think $3.48 is value, and if the trend stands up that sides traveling interstate two weeks running really struggle to get up the second week then the $12.76 multi is in play. Good Luck! |
| DIPPER (17/04/2023 1:07:17 AM) The two undefeated teams and the premiership favourites all got rolled on the weekend; what's not to like about this season! No idea how the ladder might shape up over another 18 weeks, so everybody is in with a chance! Four teams currently in the 8 that didn't play finals last season: St Kilda, Essendon, Carlton and Adelaide. 2022 premiers lurking in 10th spot. 2021 premiers slipped to 6th. 2017/19/20 premiers are 15th, and 2018 premiers are 17th. 2016 Premiers are 14th, 2013-15 premiers are stone motherless last. Anybody think the draft and salary cap is not working? (Actually, North Melbourne might be thinking that. Salary cap working? I think they are still paying Tarryn Thomas out of their salary cap. Draft not working? Adelaide offered 3 picks in exchange for the number 1 pick North used on Jason Horne-Francis. Roos said no. Crows used those 3 picks, the precise ones offered to North, to get Rachele, Rankine and Dawson. Bloody hell! And the Roos don't even have Hone-Francis!! But I digress.) Bren leads the ladder comp with a score of 74. Then we have Clare, Adam, Frog 76. James, Matt, Trent 78. Andy 80. Karen 84. Rodney 88. Dipper, Pres & Pete 92, Nato 96 and Tossa 134. Scores should shrink considerably once the Cats forge their way towards the top, and Carlton & Collingwood slide down to the bottom half. |
| DIPPER (17/04/2023 12:47:43 AM) Hard to know exactly how much difference a coach can make within the game. The standout coaching moves from a bygone era, like Keddie to full forward (and Hudson out to CHF) at 3/4 time in the 1971 grand final don't exist much anymore, as the "positions" are much more fluid than they used to be. But the point of that Keddie/Hudson move is that the Hawks were 20 points behind at 3/4 time, and Keddie kicked 4 goals in the last quarter to win the game. These days it is much more the pre-game planning that can win matches, like Brad Scott playing both Draper and Phillips, and having them both drift forward to confuse and stretch the Melbourne defence. But a decent rule of thumb in judging coaches for their in-game ability is the number of times they win games where they trailed in the last quarter compared to how many times they lose games where they led in the last quarter. Mr. Masterclass has two notches on his win belt, from rounds 5 and 10 last season. The very worst coaches have hardly any; Neil Balme just one in the 98 games he coached Melbourne. But today was the fifth time under Mr. Masterclass the Hawks have led in the final quarter and gone on to lose. Keep an eye on that one. |
| DIPPER (17/04/2023 12:17:52 AM) Jiath update. Last quarter, game on the line, a couple of points the difference, twenty-one minutes in. Captain Sicily takes the big intercept mark, waits for the umpire to call "stand" and then looks for Jiath to come running by for the handball. Jiath, behind Sicily, doesn't move! Sicily handballs it to him anyway, and some pressure comes. Instead of banging it on his boot to clear the area Jiath stands there like a rabbit frozen in the spotlight. He gets pinged for holding the ball and a few seconds later Callan Ward is slotting the goal to put GWS in front. There was just one goal each kicked for the match after that. They obviously see something in him but, fair dinkum, how many games can you afford for this bloke to cost you? (I pointed out the Carlton game last year, and every week he finds a new way to cost his team a goal. When you lose by ten goals one more is neither here nor there, but today (and the Carlton game last season) were both lost by less than a kick.) We saw what (premiership coach) Luke Beveridge did with Sam Darcy after Darcy gave away a couple of free kicks that cost a goal in a critical stage of the game against St Kilda. Darcy was subbed off immediately and hasn't been seen since. Wake up, Mr. Masterclass! Time to teach someone a lesson. |
| DIPPER (16/04/2023 10:49:30 PM) Observations on Sunday's games Geelong-West Coast Just confirmed what we already knew about these sides: West Coast are undermanned and will struggle throughout the season, whereas Geelong is starting to look the side that won the flag last season. 9 goals for the Hawkins/Cameron/Stengle trio, making it 20 in two weeks - easy pace to exceed the 180 they kicked last season, although Stengle's injury might slow them down. Giants-Hawks Tragic outcome for the Hawks, as, from what we have seen they won't get many better chances this season to win a game. Brownlow medal votes should be about matchwinners. Remind me when the last time was that Tom Mitchell or Lachie Neale sat on James Sicily's head to take a mark and kick the matchwinner. And who was the last Brownlow medal winner who could have reached to touch Impey's kick on the goal line? Adam Goodes (2006) was 4 cm shorter than Himmelberg, although he did have a decent vertical leap. Tough call. Before that you go to Scott Wynd in 1992. The entire history of Aussie Rules is that tall players win games, but for 30 years we have been giving the medals to stat-gathering midgets. And some idiots (The Messiah and his mates in 2016) bet the entire future of Hawthorn on stat-gathering midgets (Mitchell and O'Meara). Exactly how did that turn out? Won any finals since? Collingwood-St Kilda Are the Saints cooked? I observed after their best win of the season that they had clocked a combined 310 km according to the GPS tracking in round 3 against Essendon, a phenomenal number. Round 4 it fell to 294 km, and in the loss to Collingwood 282 km. Have fellow finals aspirants Carlton and Port in the next two weeks; let's see how they fare. Another tall bites the dust at Collingwood. By the last quarter they couldn't win a single ball in the air but kicked 4.0 to 3.6 to hang on. Lucky the Saints were inaccurate and then ran out of time. Big test ANZAC day, as Draper, Phillips and co dominated against Melbourne. Admittedly Melbourne was without Gawn and Lever, but they still had Grundy, Petty, Tomlinson and May to contend with. Tough few weeks coming up for the Pies, too, with Adelaide away and then Sydney after the Essendon game. |
| DIPPER (15/04/2023 11:20:08 PM) Observations on Saturday's games. Brisbane-North I don't think the game said much about those two teams that we didn't already know. But what does it say about Carlton? North had McKay and Logue back in, and Daniher and Hipwood kicked 9 as Brisbane took 33(!!) marks inside 50. Tells us what the Curnow/McKay 10 goal effort was really worth. Port-Dogs Port reminds me of the Black Knight in Monty Python's Holy Grail. All their arms and legs are missing, but they keep fighting on, somehow. Weightman has been missed by the Dogs, but if Hannan is in their best 22 then I could be getting a game and they won't make finals. Essendon-Melbourne No surprise to me the Bomber surge up the ladder this year. Excellent idea again to play the 2 ruckmen. If Wright and Weideman get back from injury, as well as Gawn, Lever and Brown for Melbourne that would make an amazing grand final. Looking forward to it! |
| DIPPER (15/04/2023 9:13:47 AM) Observations on Richmond-Sydney Tigers look cooked. Against the shortest backline I have seen this century Riewoldt took 4 marks, Ryan just 2 and Cumberland none. Dusty actually took 7 marks, but largely up on the wing. In total they took just 10 marks inside 50. Dusty looks a shadow of the player he used to be. Have the Dees next week, then Suns and Eagles both in Melbourne before the Cats. Would be a shock if they beat the Dees next week, and they certainly will need to beat both Suns and Eagles to stay in touch with the top 8, but no guarantees on what they dished up last night against the Swans. Swans have a trip to Kardinia Park next week, then the crosstown rivals, followed by Collingwood, and meanwhile lost another tall (Amartey). Could possibly beat the Giants, although if Hogan plays and Cadman (debut against Hawks on Sunday) is half as good as his number 1 pick says he is, the Swans might struggle in that one, too. Presumably Captain Sicily will pick up Cadman (none of Hogan, Himmelberg or Toby Greene look like his cup of tea). Be funny if he got 7 kicked on him two weeks in a row! |
| DIPPER (14/04/2023 9:20:26 PM) Some observations on Gold Coast-Freo It is the tragedy of the season to date that you had to tip one of these sides to win. They both look bottom 6 to me. Just seeing the first quarter of Sydney-Richmond, who are both really struggling with personnel issues, shows how far behind the pack the Suns and Dockers are. |
| DIPPER (13/04/2023 11:57:27 PM) Observations about Crows-Blues Fascinated to read in the Sporting News 2 days ago a big inquisition into why Freo are failing. Ultimately, they concluded that everything that is wrong with Freo is everything I wrote here was wrong with Freo BEFORE ROUND ONE! I mention this because if you had read anything I have written here you wouldn't have tipped Carlton against Adelaide (big shout out to Teddy (who heard something popping LAST week? what popped this week? a chardonnay cork?), Frog, Trent, Tossa, James, Clare, Karen, Nato & Matty). The Twin Towers kicked 10 between them last week against the wooden spooner with all their tall defenders out. Hmm. Lucas and Lloyd would have kicked 16, Ablett (Snr) and Brownless 18, Lockett and anyone 20, and Dunstall and Brereton would have rewritten the record books. The plain fact of the matter is that despite having Curnow and McKay in top form Carlton is the worst side at turning inside 50s into scores. I am still yet to see how Sam Walsh improves Carlton. He comes in and has 25 possessions. Meanwhile Cripps has 25 possessions fewer than last week! So, they now need two midfielders to get the same output they got from one before Walsh returned to the side. Doesn't sound like an improvement to me. Crows have been building. A quarter against the Tigers, a half against GWS and finally 3 solid games in a row, plus the bye next week. If you missed the $4.50 available for them to make the 8 you should get all the money from your wallet, take it outside and burn it; that will remind you to not make such a mistake again. Impressed with what (former Dees) fitness guru Burgess has done over there; the Crows ran like St Kilda tonight. Haven't seen a Crows first quarter like that since they played Melbourne up in Darwin in 2017. You don't get the full picture of what they are doing offensively on the telly, but having seen that 2017 game live I can imagine what tonight looked like. In 2017 Dees finished 9th, missing the 8 narrowly on percentage, while the Crows went into the grand final as favourites. Tonight, the Crows played the team that missed the 8 narrowly on percentage, and ... more finals await? The punters all hope so. And, finally, the "experts" are starting to say everything about the Crows that I wrote here BEFORE ROUND ONE! |
| BREN (13/04/2023 6:56:11 PM) Sorry for the late gif reply Timmy. Gee Ms Milligan sure looks like she loves the sun, and by her actions something else! |
| ANDY (13/04/2023 11:25:22 AM) That gif made me laugh, Timmy. |
| ANDY (13/04/2023 11:17:55 AM) Yep. Wasn't the smartest kick. |
| DIPPER (11/04/2023 3:17:00 PM) "ANDY (11/04/2023 1:15:58 PM) "But Conor Nash is they guy they have to get rid of. Of course he wasn't concussed in the clash with Bews - the guy is already brain dead!" lol" Might be funny, but I am serious. Did you see the incident where he flung an indiscriminate full-blooded kick into a pack of players? Anyone who has played the game will tell you that a footballer does NOT do that. You could kill a team-mate. Or end the career of a player. He actually connected with Jeremy Cameron's arm (free kick was paid). But no Aussie Rules fan should put up with the possibility of a spastic Like Nash ending the career of a superstar in the prime of his career. Send him off for some education for 8 or so weeks, and then bring him back through the VFL. |
| DIPPER (11/04/2023 3:07:56 PM) Port (Opponents have 36 premiership points) Most would think 2-2 after a tough draw is about right, but they have been incredibly lucky not be 0-4. In round 1 the Bears, with a solid half-time lead, laid just 4 tackles in the third quarter. To put that into perspective the Hawks, when outscored 65-0 in the third quarter by the Cats, laid 19 tackles. Brisbane simply fell asleep at the wheel! And in round 4, with both McCartins out before half time and no tall matchups for Dixon and Finalyson, Port managed to go within inches of losing that one. I think their other two games (flogged by the Pies and comfortably beaten by Adelaide) shows where they really are. Rioli and Horn-Francis were their off-season ins who were supposed to get them back to finals. Rioli subbed out last week, and if Fantasia ever gets an injury-free run it is hard to imagine Rioli getting a game. Horn-Francis had a good half when Brisbane went home early, and otherwise just average. Port has been lucky but will need all the stars and planets to align or they will miss finals again. Richmond (Opponents 42 premiership points) Patchy is the best way to describe their season to date. Zero soft opponents to date, so have some upside. Injuries to key talls, however, might kill their season. Lynch and Nankervis this week, Tarrant and Soldo haven’t managed a game, Broad suspended four weeks. Need Riewoldt to reprise his salad days and Samson Ryan to become a competent ruckman to avoid disappearing without trace. If those two can be competitive perhaps Dusty can get them over the line in a couple of key games to keep them in contention. I had them barely making the 8; they will need better luck in the back half of the season to achieve that. Taranto/Hopper were supposed to solve their clearance problems, but in 3 of the quarters against the Bulldogs they got smashed at clearance (31-15). St Kilda (Opponents 28 premiership points) Will the real Messiah please stand up! You have heard me praise Ross Lyon for getting hopeless clubs to grand finals; what he has done with the Saints so far this season is nothing short of miraculous. I don’t see that it can be sustained over a season, but let’s look again after round 6. I had them bottom 4, but they have already avoided that. Sydney (Opponents 28 premiership points) I was adamant they overachieved last season. They flogged a couple of bottom 4 sides in the first 2 weeks but looked well short of it against Melbourne. Unlucky losing two key players before halftime against Port. The real issue is how do they cover the loss of the McCartins? Richmond and Geelong the next two weeks makes the task difficult. Richmond has injury problems of their own, but who is going to pick up Cameron and Hawkins? I had them unlikely to make top 4, and if they start 2-4 that will make it hard. West Coast (Opponents 28 premiership points) Smashed by injury again, just when the win against the Giants suggested they would be more competitive this year. I had pegged them as an improver this year, but probably not until mid-May at the earliest, which is when they might get some players back. I had them 11th, but they will need a change of fortune to get that high. Western Bulldogs (Opponents 46 premiership points) A tough schedule to begin with; their opponents have more premiership points than any other, so 2-2 is palatable. I thought they would finish top 4 and premiers, and they are still a chance for all that. A worry is that they have conceded a string of goals in 3 games out of 4; they will need to correct that during the season to go close. Huge game in round 5, as they must be able to beat sides like Port, even away, if they are going to finally nail down a top 4 finish. |
| DIPPER (11/04/2023 1:52:21 PM) Geelong (Opponents 34 premiership points) A slow start but might have been played back into form by the Hopeless Hawks. Lots of Kardinia Park games to come; you would think still on track for top 4. Hawkins getting better by the week, and you can see how Stengle feeds off him. Cameron nigh unstoppable at the moment. Those 3 kicked a lazy 11 against the Hawks. Last season kicked 180 between them, so you can see they wouldn’t need too many elevens to match or surpass that. Could win everything in a row again from July is the injury gods smile upon them. Gold Coast (Opponents 40 premiership points) I had them bottom 4 and see no reason to change that. The worrying thing is that, once again, they seem almost certain to fall away late in the season. They play Adelaide, Sydney, Carlton and North in August, and at least one of those teams will get a percentage boost that will upset the top 8 applecart. We saw last season that Melbourne, who had played Oliver/Petracca/Viney at every centre bounce for the season, had those key players run out of puff in the second half of both finals. (In 2021 it was those players second halves and third quarters that won them finals.) Suns have Miller, Rowell, Anderson, and Swallow. Three of those 4 attend nearly every centre bounce: there is no sharing of the load. If the super fit Dees couldn’t cope with that in 2022, August 2023 could be a wipe-out for the Suns. GWS (Opponents 38 premiership points) Draw hasn’t been that tough; none of their opponents to date made finals last year, so 1-3 is minimum expectation. Good tough win against Crows from a losing position, and a little unlucky with the “dissent” goal against Carlton. I had them well out of finals contention and see no reason to change. Hawthorn (Opponents 32 premiership points) Three funerals and a wedding! Good fortune to catch North on their second straight interstate trip off a six-day break, but all the losses have been truly awful. In second halves were outscored by 43, 45 and 91 points in those three games (and even the exhausted Roos outscored them 5 goals to 3 in the second half). Worst thing about that is that every opponent will consider themselves a chance even if well down in the second half (see the Sydney game last season, for example). Can’t see them avoiding bottom 4, which is where I had them pre-season. Melbourne (Opponents 28 premiership points) Having learned from last season are now running up to 11 players through the centre square each game (compare Gold Coast). This is a season-long approach but will also help in individual games where it is tight, and the stars in the centre square will be fresher than their opponents late. In their premiership season the Dees overpowered opponents in second halves. So far this season they have won every last quarter by an average of 21 points, which ought to be a warning to the competition. Unlucky to lose Gawn in the opening minutes in their only loss for the season, but lucky to get West Coast with half their best players out injured. Already 3-1 and I think they would have settled for 3-3 after 6 rounds before the season started. Although their opponents to date haven’t got a fistful of premiership points, I think three of them (Brisbane, Sydney, Bulldogs) will play finals this year. North (Opponents have 26 premiership points) 2 wins last season, and 2 wins after 2 rounds this season; all praise the Messiah! Their first three opponents, however, are an excellent chance of finishing bottom 4, so there are tougher times ahead. Unlucky with injury/suspension and you can’t fault their endeavour, but they are a fair way behind many sides on talent. Still likely bottom 4. |
| ANDY (11/04/2023 1:15:58 PM) "But Conor Nash is they guy they have to get rid of. Of course he wasn't concussed in the clash with Bews - the guy is already brain dead!" lol |
| DIPPER (11/04/2023 1:08:44 PM) Four rounds in and how does it look compared to our pre-season thoughts? Let’s have a look at each team. Adelaide (Opponents played to date have 22 premiership points) In the off-season I couldn’t see much improvement for the Crows, but during the practice games it was obvious that they had substantial organic growth and that Rankine could be the 40+ goal small forward they needed. That led me to declare that the Crows making the 8 at $4.50 was the best bet of the season. Down to $3.50 now, and if they can beat Carlton this round that price will plummet again. Only 2-2 at present, but lost round 1 from a winning position, and could have won round 2 as well after the best quarter they have played since 2017. I had them in my top 8 in the ladder, and they are tracking well to date. Brisbane (Opponents 40 premiership points) Only 2-2 but have had a really tough draw. Defeated both Melbourne and Collingwood at home and could go undefeated at the Gabba this season. Will need to pick up some wins on the road to finish minor premiers, but they have plenty of winnable ones to come. On track for top 4. Carlton (Opponents 22 points) Have certainly had the rub of the green so far. On most metrics (especially inside 50s) should have lost round 1. Got Geelong at the perfect time in round 2. Benefited mightily from the “dissent” goal in round 3 when behind in the last quarter of a game where goals were hard to come by. Then got North with all their key defenders (McKay and Logue) out of action and McKay and Curnow got them over the line in a game where all the other metrics were about even. Somehow, they are undefeated playing a quality of football that shouldn’t get them into finals. The way they have been running McKay will get his suspension overturned this week and then kick the winning goal after the siren in round 5. I had them narrowly missing the 8 again. Mostly I thought that McKay, Curnow and Cripps could not match the seasons they had last year, but so far, they have. A long way to go, though. Collingwood (Opponents 26 points) 3-1 is a good return considering at least 3 of the sides they have played are likely to play finals. Lost to Brisbane at the Gabba but won’t be Robinson Crusoe there. A major concern is the lack of available talls. McRae says no problem, but I disagree. Frampton comes in and McStay rucks. Losing McStay from the forward line makes it harder for Pies to score: they had only 10 marks inside 50 against the Lions and just 9 in the Tigers game when Cameron went down. They had 30 in the two games before that. And when you see Joe Daniher getting 20 possessions, 6 marks, 2 goals and some hitouts for the first time in 6 years then something is not quite right. Pre-season I was concerned about the height going out with retirements and trades, and pointed out the Pies couldn’t afford to lose any talls to injury. Cameron, Cox and Howe all out for a while and their next 4 games against sides currently in the top 8. It was for this reason that I had them missing the 8: you get to finals with a squad and theirs is not sufficient to cope with injuries to key players. Essendon (Opponents 28 points) 3-1 losing only to the all-conquering Saints. Their improvement was anticipated by me, as I had them making the 8 this season. Decent coaching helps! When you consider how few minutes the guys most likely to kick their goals this season (Wright, Weideman and Stringer) have played they should be well satisfied with 3-1. The upside is clearly there for the second half of the season when they have a run of winnable games from late May to early July. You can still get 2/1 ($3) about them making the 8; they will certainly be in it for a long way. Good test for their unusual backline structure this week, as Melbourne have been getting lots of goals from small forwards. If the pressure up the ground forces long high kicks inside 50 they could intercept mark, but if there is plenty of groundball in the Dees forward 50 they could be in trouble. The worst part if that happens (as it did against St Kilda) is that it will give other teams a blueprint on how to beat the Bombers. Fremantle (Opponents 40 points) I had them sliding this year (bottom 6, in fact). Traded out too much height (Meek, Lobb, Logue) to get Jackson, who might be a gun in 6 or 8 years’ time, but apart from a short burst in the 2021 GF was below average as a ruckman, and never much of a goalkicker. Left their forward 50 targets as Taberner, who managed only 20 last season even with Lobb (36 goals) as the one the opponents were trying to cover, and Fyfe, who hasn’t played a full season in forever, and has never been a strong overhead mark. None of their opponents to date played finals last year. Although I expect Adelaide to do so this year, Freo were a long way off them. Lucky not to be winless, benefitting from the crazy injury run the Eagles had in the Derby. |
| DIPPER (11/04/2023 10:52:14 AM) Some observations about the MRO/Tribunal, reports and suspensions. I don't often go here, but last season I did observe how crazy the system was. In round 17 last season Joel Selwood was pinged by the umpire for kicking in danger. In that action he broke the thumb of Clayton Oliver who missed the next week and was hampered for the rest of the season, yet Selwood played the next week. How can that be right? You break the rules with a dangerous action likely to cause serious injury, break a bone of an opposing player in the process and suffer no penalty? That doesn't pass the pub test. I mention that one because it seems symbolic of everything that is wrong with the MRO/Tribunal process today. Harry McKay gets a week for his late head-high hit on Sheezel, who didn't miss a moment after the incident. Blues are appealing this one, but whether he gets off or stays banned you can see the inconsistency with the Sellwood incident. BTW, the Blues have had a charmed run at the Tribunal of late. Late last season it was Cripps getting off when Toby Greene, for the same incident, would have been banned for life. Then De Koning knees Stanley in the ribs in round 2, gets cited, only fined, and then even the fine is overturned on appeal. So other less competent ruckmen (Meek, Reeves) now believe it is open slather to slow down your opponent or putting him out of the game with similar actions. Seriously? If you attacked a player in this way when they couldn't defend themselves that used to automatically get 4 weeks in the good old days. Chris Scott observed that the action was illegal and reportable according to a recent AFL memo (yet De Koning gets his fine overturned? WTF??). He also observed that it doesn't help his side to have the opposing player suspended for a week or two. This is something I have thought about the suspension system for decades: in addition to any matches you get rubbed out for, the suspended player should also be forced to miss the next time those two sides meet each other. That could be a serious penalty, which will help to stamp out these actions. De Koning, for instance would have been risking missing a grand final by kneeing Stanley. That should give pause for thought. Both Pickett and Franklin should have got larger penalties than they did for their round 1 head high bumps. Players have got more weeks for executing perfect run-down tackles than these guys did for head high hits. How can that make sense? Finally, the game is poorer for stupid clubs choosing athletes over footballers. I pointed out that Jiath gives away a goal every week through not being a footballer. This week it was for running 40 metres without bouncing the ball. But Conor Nash is they guy they have to get rid of. Of course he wasn't concussed in the clash with Bews - the guy is already brain dead! That indiscriminate kick in the middle of a pack against Geelong was something a footballer would NEVER do; he could have killed somebody if he had connected with a temple. We have to get idiots like that out of the game before the AFL is sued into non-existence. |
| DIPPER (10/04/2023 11:16:41 PM) Some observations on Hawthorn-Geelong First, I dips me lid to Captain Sicily, who finally took on the major scoring threat key forward of another team. Got carved up a bit, but so did Lewis Young (Carlton) when Geelong did not have another single winner on the night, so it was always going to be difficult once the second half avalanche began. At least now "Mr. Masterclass" knows why the All-Australian selectors prefer the guys who play on those beasts EVERY week, and frequently beat them. I think most of the other clubs already hate the Hawks, but having played the Cats back into form will not endear them to 16 other clubs. The manic intensity the Hawks brought to the first half was similar to West Coast the day before, and, like West Coast, they were unable to sustain it after half time. Only St Kilda seem to be able to produce that for four quarters at the moment. To get past Essendon in round 3 the GPS data says the Saints players collectively did 310.3 km. Against the Suns they were able to ease up a bit; 300 km was enough. These are astonishing numbers to hit on consecutive weeks. The Pies clicked just over 300 against the Cats but haven't exceeded 290 since. The big question has to be: for how long can the Saints keep that up? And when it drops away, will their results collapse like they did last season? But the last two days (and the Saints all season) have confirmed that this game is 90% intensity and effort, and 10% ability/skill and game plan (coaching). The problem for both West Coast and Hawthorn was that when they stopped matching (in West Coast's case) or exceeding (in Hawthorn's case) the intensity and effort of the opponent, then the talent/ability and game plan factor comes into play, and the scoreboard can get ugly very quickly. Of course, all sides have players with talent and ability. Coaching may make up just a small component of the entire equation, but it is hard not to be impressed with what Ross Lyon has got out of Mason Wood that previous coaches were unable to tap. And game plan is important. The sides which are mostly winning, you can generally see how they are trying to do that. The sides that are mostly losing, not so clear. What is Fremantle's plan to win a game of football? The only one that has worked so far is to hope that so many opposition players are injured that their team completely runs out of puff in the last quarter. That is not exactly a plan that will win lots of games. In 2022 the Cats game plan was to get the ball inside 50 quickly, with Hawkins, Cameron and Stengle getting one-on-one contests. Those 3 kicked 180 goals that way. In the off-season I observed that if those 3 kick another 180 goals in 2023 every team is playing for second. (At one stage in the third quarter of Hawks-Cats I was concerned that those 3 would click through 180 TODAY!) In 2021 the Dees focused on using their hitout advantage to generate clearances and goal opportunities at clearance but particularly in the centre square when the 6-6-6 rule helped. The Tiger dynasty was based around the old "Kennedy's Commandos" style of flooding back and surging forward with run, handball and knock-ons. All three were using the best weapons at their disposal that the other sides couldn't match. If you asked Mr. Masterclass this question: "When you win the flag (and it doesn't have to be this year or even next year) what will be your point of difference with the other 17 teams?" The supplementary question would be, "Why can't we see that in your game plan today?" |
| DIPPER (10/04/2023 10:06:12 AM) Ladder update: Assuming the Cats win by 49 points against the Hawks later today the leading scores will be: James 76; Clare, Matt 78; Andy, Adam, Bren 80; Trent 82, Frog 84 with a gap to the rest. |
| DIPPER (10/04/2023 9:47:27 AM) Correction: Looks like Hibberd tweaked his achilles. So he was subbed out for injury, not to rest him for Stringer. That will make for an interesting call if Hibberd misses. With Wright and Weideman both absent and nobody forward of centre other than Stringer looking like a scoring threat who gets Stringer? If Brown available, you would think he comes straight back in (9 goals in 9 quarters played and taller than any Bomber defender). Then I think May gets Stringer and Petty goes back to play on the resting ruckman, leaving Brown, McDonald and Fritsch as the marking targets inside forward 50. (That worked in the 2021 GF.) If Brown unavailable Petty stays forward, Tomlinson comes in to pick up the resting ruckman and May plays on Stringer. I like Petty forward (averaged 130 points per game since he moved there) but the Bombers might be a special case. With their unusual backline they have natural matchups for Petty, but not so much for the small forwards. |
| DIPPER (9/04/2023 11:16:56 PM) Observations on Sunday's games. Essendon vs GWS Scoreboard flattered GWS a little, as Bombers missed many gettable goals. Excellent idea to play the second ruckman, gave Essendon a big advantage which they exploited well. Unusual backline for Essendon. Redman, Zerk-Thatcher, Ridley, Kelly and Laverde all a similar size. All reasonably mobile for their size, but they don't have the quick defenders who normally pick up small forwards. When they played St Kilda Butler and Higgins kicked 4 each, and that decided the game. Interesting test coming up this week. Who will play on Pickett, Spargo, Neal-Bullen and Chandler when they have their rotation in the forward line. So far this season Pickett has 6 goals (from 2 games), Spargo and Chandler each 6 goals from 4 games, and Neal-Bullen has goaled in all four games as well. As a collective, the midget brigade is averaging five and a half goals per game. Apart from their night out against the Dons, Higgins and Butler have kicked just 7 between them in three games. Worth keeping an eye on. Worth noting, too, that when Brisbane defeated Melbourne it was the small forwards they were able to shut down. Pickett was out suspended but Spargo was goalless (he has kicked 2 goals in each of the other three games) and Neal-Bullen and Chandler had just one each (their equal-worst returns for the year). From a punting perspective? Maybe Pickett to kick a bag. His radar off today (kicked 2 goals 5) but has had 12 scoring shots in two games (for 6 goals six) and the Bombers appear vulnerable to the quick small forward with goal sense. Melbourne vs West Coast The experts were impressed that the Eagles were within 4 goals at half time and gave them hope of maintaining that respectability in the final scoreline. The data said no. GPS tracker had the Eagles close to world record pace in the first half, notching up 147.5 km collectively. Unsustainable (most sides do 280-285 km for the match), and it was 10 km less in the second half, which showed on the scoreboard. But it does show that effort can make up for a lack of talent, but I suppose we have seen that from St Kilda 4 times already this season. Looks like Hibberd will get the job on Stringer next week, which is why they gave him an early shower today. No great surprise as Hibberd has quelled the likes of Dusty and Charlie Cameron in the past. |
| DIPPER (9/04/2023 11:45:47 AM) Some observations on Sydney-Port Let's start with the finish. Only seen anything like that once before, in round 11 of 1991 out at Windy Hill. Steven Clark has a shot after the final siren to tie the game. 55 metres out, up the other end from where I was standing. Gets on to a torp, which is on line, and everyone around me (Demon and Bomber supporters) think it is a goal, but it drops short in the goalsquare. The history of our game, over 150 years, is that it is the tall players who decide games and premierships. Ruckmen, key forwards and key defenders. Some people are impressed by the players that get the ball a lot, but the history of our game is littered with those types who never achieved team success. Think Skilton, Buckley, Harvey, Tom Mitchell, and the like; how many premierships between them? Look at the winning percentage of West Coast when Natanui plays and when he doesn't, for example. St Kilda were a different side when both Marshall and Ryder played than when one of them missed. Melbourne with and without Gawn is the same. The key forwards are ... key! Brisbane's Fab 4 wouldn't have won anything without Brown and Lynch taking contested marks and putting them through the big sticks. Tony Lockett got 2 ordinary sides to grand finals. Essendon were always a chance with Lloyd and Lucas, while Hawthorn were the dominant side with Dunstall and Brereton holding down the key forward posts. And the key backs are equally important, because in the big games (finals) the other team got there because they have good key forwards! So, when Brisbane three-peated it was Michael and Leppitsch dominating the key back roles. The three-peat Hawks took Lake and then Frawley to win their flags. Year after year (ignoring the covid-shortened 2020 season) the premiers have a key back in the All-Australian team. 2017 Alex Rance. 2018 Jeremy McGovern. 2019 Dylan Grimes. 2021 May and Lever. 2022 Tom Stewart. Which brings us back to Sydney-Port. I was at the game in round 1 of 1997 when the lowly Demons defeated the reigning premiers North when both Carey and McKernan went off injured before half time. When both McCartins bit the dust (one quite literally!) before half time I gave Sydney no hope and expected them to lose by at least 6 goals. That they almost pinched it just shows how poor Port really is. With no suitable match-ups for Dixon or Finlayson the Swans should have got flogged, yet Port weren't good enough to do it. So all the stars and planets align again to save Hinkley; the guy must have a horseshoe up his clacker! But Sydney looks to be in serious trouble. I would be surprised if Paddy McCartin ever plays again - that looked terrible. And Tom McCartin will miss at least one game and that hit could damage his confidence irreparably. Who have they got to play key back? Sam Reid (196 cm), Lewis Melican (194 cm), Hayden McLean (197 cm), Lachlan McAndrew (209 cm), Tom Hickey (201 cm), Will Gould (192 cm), Aaron Francis (192 cm), Cameron Owen (203 cm) are the talls on their list that did not play on Saturday. Half of them are ruckmen or forwards, several of them are on the injury list and others are untried kids. Only Melican is a tried defender. He has played 52 games since his debut in 2017 and couldn't get a single game in 2022. Tigers, Cats, GWS and Pies the next four games: they might disappear without trace. |
| DIPPER (9/04/2023 10:41:55 AM) Some observations on Saturday's games. St Kilda-Gold Coast Suns are a bottom four side. That is all. Richmond-Footscray A game dominated by the Dogs for 85% of it, yet they managed to almost lose it in the second quarter when they gave up 7 goals in a row. But the blueprint for Bulldogs success was there for all to see: a winning midfield pumping the ball inside 50 to the talls. With the rain it wasn't easy to mark the ball, but the fourth umpire kicked in, with the under-sized Tiger defenders giving up too many free kicks. If Lynch gets rubbed out for concussing Keath then Riewoldt gets a reprieve. But, if he doesn't the Tigers have looked better in attack the last 6 quarters with Cumberland on the ground, and if Dusty gets up for two matches in a row, then Riewoldt might not get back in the side. Adelaide-Fremantle Fremantle are no good, as I have observed throughout the off-season and during the season to date. They barely shook off West Coast when the Eagles were down to 16 fit players (no interchange). The modern game is so much based on running (show me the GPS data for the game and I can tell you which side won without seeing the scoreboard) that most VFL/SANFL/WAFL sides would have beaten West Coast by at least ten goals. Despite their first two losses there was enough to confirm that Adelaide at $4.50 to make the 8 was the bet of the season. A bit of a "no-name" defence, but their forward line is stacked to the point that they will win most games when they kick more goals than behinds. First two games (both losses) 22 goals 34 behinds. Next two games (both wins) 35 goals 18 behinds. Total 57 goals 52 behinds. Enough said. |
| DIPPER (8/04/2023 11:26:55 AM) "Masterclass Mitchell" thinks "Captain Sicily" should be in the All-Australian team. The last two weeks has shown the enormous gulf between Sicily and genuine All Australian key defenders. Two weeks ago, Sicily had 25 disposals and 7 marks against the Sydney Swans, 76% of which were junk possessions: cheapies, padding. Swans were without Lance Franklin, leaving McDonald and Amartey as their two key forwards. Sicily chose to play on neither of them, leaving that to Frost and Blanck. As a result, the Swans scored from 57% of their inside 50s (well above league average, which is 50%) and McDonald and Amartey kicked 9 goals between them. Before that game they had kicked 36 goals between them in 38 games. In their one game since (vs Melbourne) they managed 1 goal between the two of them. Last week Franklin came back into the side, 1049 goals at more than 3 a game in his career to that point, including 52 goals in 2022, and he has kicked 50+ goals every season that he has played more than 17 games since 2007. You would think that with the three tall targets Melbourne would play 3 tall defenders (May, Lever and Petty). After all, when May missed the first 2 weeks Melbourne played Lever, Petty and Tomlinson. No. So good a player is May that they decided they could play only two tall defenders (May and Lever) with medium-sized Hibberd picking up the third tall forward, despite giving up 8 cm. May, of course, played on Franklin, who kicked 2 goals, one from a mark inside 50 and the other from a scramble after a forward 50 ball-up. But it is not just May's ability to beat his opponent one-on-one; he also organises the entire backline. This was never more evident than when he let Lever pressure Buddy on the 50 metre arc and raced back to the goal-square to prevent Franklin's long-range effort from bouncing through. With his organisation and despite playing only 2 tall defenders against three tall marking targets, Sydney was restricted to scoring from just 46% of their inside 50s. May had just 20 possessions (half of which were kickouts after a behind) and 6 marks. Sydney, with 3 marking forwards against Melbourne took just 12 marks inside 50 for the game. A week earlier, with just two marking forwards against Hawthorn, they took 18 marks inside 50. If "Masterclass Mitchell" wants to see "Captain Sicily" in the All-Australian team, he will need to oust May. To have any hope of doing that Sicily would need to: 1. Play on and beat the best forwards in the competition. May plays on Franklin, Hawkins, Lynch, Walker, Dixon, McKay, Daniher, Larkey, and even Toby Greene. "Captain Sicily" leaves those tasks to others. 2. Organise the entire defence to restrict the opposition forwards. If he was actually doing this against Sydney, he was an abject failure at it. 3. Stop padding his stats by demanding handballs and chip passes from teammates when it doesn't benefit his team, because Sicily is confusing Mitchell into thinking he is doing a good job. 4. If Sicily is going to leave the big jobs to others, he must organise himself to be "third man up" far more often than he has been this season. He should study how Jake Lever chooses the moment to leave his direct opponent to impact where the ball is actually going, either with an intercept mark or a spoil. When Sicily has done this for as many consecutive seasons as May has, he might actually be included in the conversation for All-Australian. Perhaps when May retires, but then Sicily will have to outperform players like Jacob Weitering, Sam Taylor, Tom Stewart, Jake Lever, Harris Andrews and others to be consider for a key defender post. And Sam Mitchell needs to stop looking at stats and focus on impact if he is going to turn this once-great club around. |
| DIPPER (8/04/2023 10:05:33 AM) Observations on North-Carlton The stars and planets have aligned for Carlton in the season to date. First, they steal 2 points from Richmond in a game that on most measures (e.g., inside 50 count) they should have lost. Then they catch Geelong at low ebb, and just squeak home. Looked unlikely to beat GWS until the worst umpiring decision of the season to date (the "dissent" goal) swung things their way. And yesterday they catch North without their only two key defenders (Logue and McKay) enabling Curnow and McKay to be the difference in a game where the Blues lost nearly every other key metric: disposals, inside 50s, clearances, contested possessions. Couldn't make finals on their merits last season, perhaps with the aid of everyone from the umpires (GWS game) to the tribunal (Logue decision) they might sneak into the 8 this season. But they have a tough 5 weeks in May: Lions, Dogs, Pies, Swans, Dees (all played finals in 2022) so they will want to cash in on their early season good fortune to the max. It is one thing for the Twin Towers to kick goals against the wooden spooner without their two best defenders, let's see them do it once or twice against those 5 sides before we get carried away with their chances in 2023. For North the lack of depth in their talls on the list shows where they are at. Compare Melbourne, which has Brown, McDonald and van Rooyen fighting over two spots at one end, Tomlinson unable to get a game when both May and Lever play, Petty able to play either back or forward, and all this with their best tall (Gawn) out for 6 weeks. That is why one squad is the flag favourite and the other is in with a chance of their third consecutive wooden spoon. North is not particularly relevant in 2023, but it is good that they are more competitive than they have been for years. |
| DIPPER (6/04/2023 11:26:17 PM) Observations on Brisbane-Collingwood Nothing new to say about Collingwood; I already observed after last week' game that their season had already peaked. And if you go back further, during the off-season I was doubtful about the amount of height they had lost with the retirements and trades, and the age of those talls remaining. For Brisbane I think the scoreboard flattered them. Had some good patches, but the Pies missed half a dozen gettable ones during the run of ten consecutive Brisbane goals. They are 2-2 with poor percentage, but their draw hasn't been as tough as some think, as I am unconvinced that either Port or Collingwood will play finals this season. |
| PRES (5/04/2023 11:15:03 PM) Oops I meant …..Miss Mill (Milligan) |
| DIPPER (5/04/2023 7:50:30 PM) Curious thing, psychology. In chess, when a strong player takes on a weaker opponent, the weaker player would always be happy with a draw. The weaker player tries to keep the position as balanced as possible, avoiding even minor imbalances (in the pawn structure, for example, or trading bishop for knight) which the stronger player would have in his toolkit methods of exploiting. On the other hand, the stronger player is seeking to create imbalances in the position, and the more the merrier. The selections made in Brisbane-Collingwood suggest that Brisbane is afraid of Collingwood's pace and ball use. Brisbane goes into the game with a clear advantage in the ruck. They could magnify that advantage by playing two ruckmen. Instead, they have dropped Fort (the second ruckman) and brought in a medium-sized player (Prior) whose career stats are below average in every way they can be measured. Wacky decision! In 2021 the ONLY advantage Melbourne had over the rest of the competition was in hitouts (about 300 more than next best for the season) and hitouts to advantage. Doesn't sound like much, but it got them a flag! Brisbane is prepared to pass up such a key advantage, apparently thinking, "if it turns out they are too quick for us, we might get blown out of the water". Wrong, wrong, wrong. They should have gone for a ruck strategy like Leigh Matthews used to win 3 flags in 2001-2003. Play two ruckmen, and at every ball-up smash it as far forward as possible and rely on your non-ruckmen to win the contest at least half the time. (When they went in with just one ruckman in the 2004 grand final Brogan and Lade eventually overpowered him, and the Power outscored the Lions by 8 goals from late in the third quarter.) Not saying the Lions can't still win tomorrow night, but in my view, they have passed up one of their trump cards, which is never a good idea. |
| PRES (5/04/2023 6:10:22 PM) Miss Mill (Gilligan) (Ceramics teacher from Highschool) |
| ANDY (5/04/2023 1:48:58 PM) Tim, can't put a finger on it. Who is it?? |
| DIPPER (4/04/2023 11:37:38 AM) Ladder update after round 3. Those with a score below 100 are: James, Andy 86; Clare, Adam 88; Frog 90; Matt 94; Karen, Bren 96. Going to be record high scores this season unless the Pussycats can show more Cat and less Pussy for the remainder of the season. Frog benefitting most from the Cats slide - he had them 8th. Nobody had St Kilda making the 8; Pres, using last season's ladder had them 10th and everyone else below that. All these stats are coming out about how many sides make the finals after a 0-3 start and how few sides miss the finals after a 3-0 start. But supposing it was your profession, and you relied on getting this right to feed yourself? The bookmakers still have Geelong shorter odds than the Saints to make the 8 (and top 4, and win the flag), so just hold your horses. Meanwhile, if you want a stat that has stood the test of time to bet on AFL futures, here is one. In living memory, the side that has kicked 20+ goals against the Swans has won the flag that year. Exhibit A: the 2022 grand final. That was the first time the Swans had conceded 20+ goals in a game since July 2015, when they were pummeled by the Three-peat Hawks. And before that? Nobody can remember! In 2023, that is the Dees. Pies get their chance is 33 days, 3 hours and 33 minutes from now, when they have the Swannies at the G-spot. Let's see what they can do. |
| PRES (4/04/2023 10:22:57 AM) And bit of Trivia for Bacon and Bren. Do you know who this is? (see below) |
| PRES (4/04/2023 10:21:58 AM) GO TOSSA!!!  |
| DIPPER (2/04/2023 9:41:47 PM) Some observations on Sunday's games. 1. Suns-Cats Been watching a few Wylie Coyote cartoons lately, just to get an idea of what it looks like when you fall off a cliff. Absolutely no doubt that when you are the defending champ every team gives their best effort against you. Melbourne suffered that in 2022, still managed top 2 at the end of home & away, but it took its toll, and they didn't have enough in the tank for the finals after half time. Cats can still make top 4, but they might have to use up too many petrol tickets to get there. Imagine the Easter Monday clash determining the wooden spoon. Has that ever happened before? 2. Freo-West Coast Brave effort by the Coasters. Looked the better side but just ran out of soldiers. Hard to see Freo avoiding a bottom 6 finish. 3. Melbourne-Sydney Looked like the Grand Final preview to me. High intensity throughout from the two best tackling teams in the AFL, yet both sides managed to achieve outstanding kicking efficiency - over 70% - and move the ball fluently. Swans will need Hickey back for the grand final, but, of course, Dees have Gawn to add to that mix. That was clearly the best standard game of the round, and it will surprise if these two don't play off for the cup. It is squads - not players, or teams - that get you to the big dance, and these look like the most complete squads. Swans were without their 1,000-goal full forward last week, but the forward line didn't miss a beat. Dees without their 6 time All Australian ruckman this week but they won the hitouts and split the clearances against an outstanding midfield. So far this season Gawn - effectively - and May and Pickett have missed 2 of the 3 games, Fritsch 1, Salem all 3. Blokes like Tomlinson, Melksham and Jordan have become fringe players at the Dees but would walk into any other side. Ben Brown had 4 goals in each of the first two games and an early one in round 3 before a back spasm forced him off. Up bobs Jacob van Rooyen with 3 goals and some competitive ruck work to give Grundy a chop out. This kid is 19. Ben and Max King are 22, with more than 50 games experience each. They average 1.8 goals/game. van Rooyen looks like the next David Neitz to me, similar build and marking ability. Two more preseasons and 2 more years in the gym and he will be unstoppable. Preseason I said that Petty forward would be the move to make the Dees forward line a nightmare to match up on. Started forward for the first time today and 21 goals against a side that had conceded just 13 in their first two games combined was the outcome. It looks like the scoreboard should be closer because it was only 5 more scoring shots, but the Dees were able to generate set shots from straight in front rather than tight angles, and from closer range than Sydney managed. Definitely give the Dees a Mulligan for the Brisbane game with the dodgy cricket pitch in the middle combined with the Gawn injury in the first 5 minutes. |
| DIPPER (1/04/2023 10:47:17 PM) Some observations on Saturday's games. 1. Somebody told me Hawthorn won a game of AFL football in 2023. I figured that either all the stars and planets had aligned, or it was April 1st. Turned out to be both. North missing LDU in addition to Simpkin, but what seemed most important was they didn't have the legs coming off a 6-day break and travelling interstate for the second week in a row. GPS tracking shows North covered, collectively, 12-13 kilometres less than the previous 2 weeks. 2. Neither Giants nor Carlton look good enough to make the 8 on that showing. 3. Bombers gave up a fast start again, so it wasn't just coming off the Witches Hats game the week before. Seemed to me they were the better side for 90% of the game, but not good enough. 4. Super important win for Adelaide. Their football looks more like finals football than many more favoured candidates. If Brisbane had turned up for round 1 Hinkley would already be out the door. Sydney in Sydney next week, then the resurgent Dogs the week after; probably still gone by round 5, especially if that round 5 scoreboard resembles the 2021 preliminary final scoreboard. |
| DIPPER (31/03/2023 10:49:14 PM) Observations on Richmond-Collingwood Brave effort by an undermanned Richmond, although they were never really in the game. I had expected Dusty to retire during the off-season, and if he keeps getting these soft tissue injuries the Tigers would be better off without him. Apart from the constant change in the line-up every time he gets up for a game (and then having to plan your sub on the expectation that he might need to be subbed out at any moment) and then change the line-up again when he is out injured, he has been keeping Cumberland out of the side. Pre-season I wrote that I thought Cumberland would be the key to the Tigers forward line. Tonight, they certainly looked better (and far more likely to score) with him on the ground. My pre-season worry with the Pies is that they had lost too much height. Howe might not play for months, if at all this season, and now Cameron has a knee issue. (Moore looked proppy for a while there, too - he might be next to go.) Their season might have already peaked. If anybody thinks that Max Gawn is over-rated (Nato?) just look at that second half tonight. Nankervis, a 3-time premiership ruckman was up against midgets after Cameron went off. Got his hand to the ball, of course, but couldn't direct the ball to advantage and the Pies edged the centre square and narrowly lost the clearances on the night. Then you see what Gawn does against genuine ruckmen with his freakish numbers of hitouts to advantage and you realise the gap between him and the other ruckmen in the league is well reflected by the 6 All Australian jumpers in the last 7 years (missing only 2017 when injury restricted him to just 13 games). And I am pretty sure that Gawn wouldn't have let McStay run off him into the forward 50 to mark unopposed and kick the sealer. The gap between Gawn and a three-time premiership ruckman is huge, yet there are few other ruckmen in the league who could claim a better record than Nankervis. It will be interesting, then, to see if the Dees fall apart as they did in 2017 when he got injured. They lost the game he got injured in (despite leading comfortably at the time the injury occurred, and being undefeated to that point in the season) and then lost 4 of their next 6 games, eventually finishing 9th. If Grundy can't do the job on Ladhams there aren't many easier ruck assignments in the AFL today. |
| DIPPER (30/03/2023 11:39:58 PM) Some observations on Dogs-Lions If Naughton could kick like Ugle-Hagan, you would have a serious footballer. If Ugle-Hagan could mark like Naughton, you would have a serious footballer. Instead, you have two half-serious footballers. I keep pointing it out, but nobody pays attention. Ashcroft will no doubt win all sorts of awards this season, but he cost his team a game tonight, getting outmarked in the goalsquare by Williams when there was 2 points the difference and the Lions were coming. With those midget midfielders, they give them a billion Fantasy Football points, but don't deduct any when their inability to contest overhead costs a big game. 2021 semi-final it was Neale outmarked by Dale in the last quarter for a goal in a final won by less than a kick. Last season in Hawthorn-Carlton it was Cripps drifting forward and out-marking Tom Mitchell and kicking a goal in a game that Carlton won by less than a kick. These moments are the difference between winning and losing, but do not register in Fantasy Football, Brownlows, Rising Star Awards, and the like. Which brings us to coaching. If I was coaching against Brisbane, I would have Ashcroft's opponent taking him to the goal-square at every opportunity. Why wait until the 11th hour? It will obviously be a winning strategy. I often wonder what the coaches see (and don't see). I would have sent Lobb onto the ground with one simple instruction: "your only job tonight (apart from when rucking) is to prevent Harris Andrews taking a mark. I don't care if you don't get a single possession, because if you prevent Andrews from taking a mark, we will win by 10 goals." Even if that wasn't the obvious plan pre-game, surely you could see that before quarter time! And what a different game we would have seen then! And just a short memo to Captain Sicily. There are captains and there are leaders! Captain Bontompelli and Captain Neale went head-to-head in the game and were both outstanding contributors and leaders of their sides. So, how about picking up the Coleman-leading Nick Larkey on Saturday and inspiring your team-mates by winning your position; perhaps even keeping him goalless. Then you will be able to look me (and others, including your teammates) in the eye and say, "I should be the captain of this side". |
| DIPPER (29/03/2023 5:44:18 PM) As predicted straight after the Bulldogs-Saints game: Sam Darcy dropped this week. As usual, you read it here first! |
| DIPPER (28/03/2023 9:34:29 AM) Still takes forever for our so-called experts to catch on. It was June last year that I pointed out that the Swans do better against the Dees when Buddy franklin does NOT play. Now David King and others have observed that over the last 3 years it is not just Melbourne. When Buddy does NOT play the Swans have averaged 9 points/game more than when he does play. No surprise to me or to anybody at this site. |
| DIPPER (27/03/2023 1:48:43 PM) Our so-called "experts" don't mind going off half-cocked after one or two games. After round 1 some were describing Lewis Young as the best player in the entire history of the game, and in round 2 he gets completely exposed by Jeremy Cameron. This week ESPN has described Luke Davies-Uniacke as the best player from the 2017 draft. Of course, you only get a clearer picture of the best of a particular draft class after the careers are over. For instance, the 2015 draft saw Jacob Weitering, Callum Mills, Clayton Oliver, Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow all drafted, along with premiership players Daniel Rioli, Josh Dunkley, Tom Cole and Nathan Broad, and even 2023 Brownlow medalist Darcy Parish. Who can say which of those will ultimately be considered the best of the bunch? For 2017, that day is even further away. But I will point out that the 2017 draft included these premiership players: Noah Balta, Liam Ryan (also All Australian), Charlie Spargo (young enough to add another 4 or 5 flags to his existing premiership), Harrison Petty, Bayley Fritsch (everyone who has matched his season of 59 goals in a season including 12 in finals and 6 in a grand final is already in the hall of fame), and Gryan Miers. Then there are those without a premiership medallion, including All Australians Andrew Brayshaw, Tim Kelly and Sam Taylor. You have the number 1 pick Cam Rayner who missed a year with a knee: let's see what he can do. Then there are others who have won club B & F, like James Worpel (who must be leading the 2023 B & F as well). On top of that there are all the big guys who take longer to develop. In the 2017 draft these included Aaron Naughton, Darcy Fogarty, Tom De Koning, Tom McCartin, Jack Payne, Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, Lloyd Meek, Ben Miller and Tristan Xerri. LDU is not even the best midfielder at North (Jy Simpkin has won the last 2 B & F medals, and Ben Cunnington is better than both of them). Is LDU definitely better than Andrew Brayshaw, Tim Kelly, James Worpel and Gryan Miers? When he has a B & F or two, an All-Australian jumper and a premiership medallion we can start to have that conversation. And then let us see what Balta, Petty, Fritsch, Spargo, Rayner, Taylor, Fogarty, De Koning, etc. achieve in their careers. To get just one All-Australian jumper LDU needs not only to better than the other midfielders in his draft year but he is also competing with Bontompelli, Dangerfield, Petracca, Oliver, Mills, Cripps, Wines and the like. So, before we go off half-cocked and say after two 30-possession games that LDU is the best of the 2017 crop, let's take it one step at a time. First let us see if he can actually win a B & F at the club that has had fewer star players than any other during his career. Then, let's see if he can make All-Australian. And then, after his career is done and dusted we can compare him not only to the others that have achieved so much more than him to date, but also those whose future is so bright but are just starting to blossom now (Balta, Taylor, De Koning, Fritsch etc.). |
| DIPPER (26/03/2023 10:44:33 PM) Ladder update. Just looking at the ladder after 2 rounds and have decided the prize this year would go to whomever had all of the following sides in their top 8: St Kilda, Essendon and North. If that is you, please apply. |
| DIPPER (26/03/2023 10:37:37 PM) Some observations about Eagles-Giants Both these sides will trouble and even defeat top 8 sides this year. Both have some A-graders and both have some forward threats. GWS look better when all of Flynn, Hogan and Greene are playing, which didn't happen nearly often enough last season. Not sure what games the "experts" watch before putting their best players list together; probably just look at the stats and nothing else. But the two most important players for the Eagles Sunday night were Liam Ryan and Jayden Hunt. Ryan reminded me of Andrew McLeod in his heyday, in that you felt his team would score every time he touched the ball. Hunt had enormous numbers off the half back flank: 22 possessions (5 contested), 566 metres gained, 2 goals, 1 goal assist and 6 score involvements. Hunt (along with Jamaine Jones on the other wing) was the glue that kept their ball movement together whenever they attacked down his wing. Hunt was able to advance further than Jones (sufficiently to kick 2 goals of his own) because he is quick enough to get back in position if they turn the ball over. I have a bit of advice for GWS player Jacob Wehr: get rid of that tattoo on your forehead (the one that says "hit me"). |
| DIPPER (26/03/2023 6:40:31 PM) Observations about Sydney-Hawthorn Looked like a training run for the Swans, to be perfectly honest. They have quality in every line and it is not clear that Buddy is in their best 22 any more. Once again I don't understand what Sicily is up to. When the game was being decided by goals from marks to Amartey and McDonald against smaller defenders why was Sicily's hulking frame never in the picture? In the first two minutes, having given up a mark inside forward 50 within 12 seconds of the start (which was converted for a goal) Sicily ran behind his teammate who had a mark or free kick to get a cheap stat. The handball went to him and Sicily promptly got caught holding the ball. What kind of example can he set for the youngsters? Once again he ends up with 25 possessions and 7 marks, but zero impact. Amartey and McDonald kick 9 between them and Hawthorn kick 4 goals for the day. I think the AFL has to step in and warn Sam Mitchell that there will be tanking charges if this continues, because if you are not even trying to be competitive the competition lacks integrity. Two games and a percentage of 42.1? You have to go back to the earliest seasons of Gold Coast and GWS to see numbers like that. And what about the fan base? How many will turn up to watch ten goal hidings every week? In two seasons Sam Mitchell will have undone decades of effort in building up a fan base. Just a few elementary things would clearly improve the scoreboard. 1. Play your best big defender on their best marking forward. 2. Have your resting ruckman in the goalsquare to provide a deep target (as done by Essendon, Melbourne, Freo, Collingwood: the other sides who play 2 ruckmen and lack key forwards). 3. Teach Ned Reeves where to run AFTER the centre clearance. How can a 7 foot tall Aussie Rules player end up with zero tackles (Meek had 8), 2 kicks and 1 mark? If he is not doing as instructed send him back to Box Hill to learn. (Even Jimmy Stynes did that at Prahran, and he won a Brownlow medal playing in the ruck!) And if he is recording those stats while doing as instructed then instruct him differently. How can he impact so few contests? 4. Play fewer athletes and more footballers. Every week I see Jiath give up goals by spilling marks, letting an opponent waltz past him, or even giving the ball straight to that opponent. Maginness, with his pedigree, should be a footballer, but he is used as an athlete instead, sent to run with somebody and annoy them all afternoon. His father won more flags than Nick Daicos' father did, but Nick is actually a footballer. No doubt we will hear about another "coaching masterclass" because Chad Warner got only 15 possessions. No point doing that when Sydney has 6 other midfielders just as good as Warner, and they destroyed the Hawks today. Tell Maginness to go and win the footy, and if he can't then play somebody else instead who can. Does Sam Mitchell really think he can keep his job if he ends the year with zero wins and a percentage around 40? At the end of last season the Saints had 11 wins and a percentage of 99 while the Hawks had 8 wins and a percentage of 89. Ross Lyon has produced a GENUINE masterclass to get his undermanned side up against two of last year's finalists. So far this season Lyon has had less at his disposal than Mitchell has had at the Hawks. David Noble lost his job (while under contract) with better results than what Mitchell is getting this season. And the worst is yet to come: we all know young sides fade out late in the season. It really is a shambles. |
| DIPPER (26/03/2023 5:25:33 PM) Some observations on Essendon-Suns First ten minutes it looked like "no Weideman, no Bombers". But, as one of the broadcast commentators pointed out, when you come off a "game" against the Witches Hats it can take a period of adjustment to having an opponent, being chased, tackled and competed with for every ball. Interested to see how Sydney start next week. Both teams hard at it but lack the personnel and class of the sides who will be there deep in September. Suns have had a tough draw early (playing two likely finalists) but the worry for them is that in several recent seasons they have started well and then fallen away later in the season. Bombers can improve. Wright and Stringer still out, and they kicked half their goals last season. Weideman, the obvious replacement for Wright, missed today, but Langford bobs up with 5. Last time Langford was best on ground Chris Mew was second best on ground and they gave the Norm Smith medal to Gary Ayres! Another area they can improve in is just how they gel together. For instance there were several occasions where two Bombers went for the same ground ball in the forward 50. When one of them is Davey the other should get out of the way. He looks like being the next Cyril/Kosi, so leave that ball to him and let's see what dance steps he has in the telephone booth. Don't forget to back Darcy Parish for the Brownlow. He went head-to-head with Touk Miller today and came out on top (and not many can say that). They both had a similar number of disposals but many of Miller's were scrappy under pressure kicks and handballs while Parish was tackling him. In fact Miller got pinged for holding the ball half a dozen times during the game, nearly all of them with Parish tackling. But Parish had much more impact than Miller today. Ten score involvements (Miller had 5), 5 Centre Clearances (Miller had 2) and 11 clearances total (Miller had 5). Also worth noting that Miller had 92% game time for his 31 possessions. Parish had 30 possessions in just 67% game time, which meant that everything he did, he was able to go full steam ahead. |
| DIPPER (26/03/2023 12:50:28 AM) Some observations on Freo-North The most obvious thing is that neither team is any good. I wonder if/when Freo is regretting blowing their salary cap on Luke Jackson. 1 mark (total) in 2 games against St Kilda and North. In years to come there are a few good young midfielders they might like to tie up long-term, and they would have liked to have had some money in the bank to attract the key forward they need before they can make finals again. But it is great to see North winning games, because it shows that they haven't been trying to in recent seasons. The list is fundamentally the same. Yes, the Messiah is there now, but that alone doesn't turn 2-20 to 2-0, not without increased effort. It is absolutely the worst thing in football when players don't try. I reported here many times that Jackson didn't try in the second half of last season, and it is hard to believe he is trying now. Could North really have been trying last season? Apart from the two games they won they didn't really get close in any others. The lack of effort by the Hawks up here in Darwin against the Suns was probably clearer from my seat at the ground than on the telly, but it was awful to behold. And next week it is the Messiah versus Mr Masterclass! Can't wait for that one! |
| DIPPER (26/03/2023 12:27:48 AM) Some observations on St Kilda-Footscray First: some arithmetic. Collingwood defeated Port by 71. Port defeated Brisbane by 54. (Running total 125) Brisbane beat Melbourne by 11. (Running total 136) Melbourne beat Footscray by 50. So, if Collingwood played Footscray tomorrow we would expect a Collingwood victory by 186 points. Is there really 31 goals difference between Collingwood and Footscray? It certainly looks like it from their results to date. The truly interesting observation is that we are about to find out who is in charge at the Bulldogs, as Bevo is a very unforgiving man. When the Dogs gave up 3 goals in 45 seconds at the end of the third quarter of the 2021 grand final Bevo blamed Tony Liberatore and nobody else. Libber was starting behind the ruckman as the "sweeper", but 3 times in a row he went ball-hunting and Melbourne came out of the front of centre square each time. In 2022 Bevo refused to play Libber in the centre square. Only very late in the season, when it looked like the Dogs might miss the finals did he play Libber in the centre square, which is clearly his best position. Largely on the strength of that move only did Footscray squeak into the finals. What has all this to do with the price of fish? It was fairly clear that Bevo blamed Darcy for the loss Saturday night. There were two incidents in a critical phase of the game where it felt the game could go either way involving Darcy. At a centre bounce he kneed Marshall in the head, giving away a free kick. The Saints move the ball forward and trapped it there for a few stoppages. While Marshall was sent off by the blood rule Darcy had to ruck against an opponent that makes Caleb Daniel look like a giant. But instead of simply winning the ruck knock to advantage, Darcy grabbed a fistful of his opponent's jumper. The Saints were given a free kick, which went through for a goal, and it was all one-way traffic from that point on. Darcy was immediately subbed out of the game. I think that if Bevo is in charge Darcy will not play senior football next week, and possibly not for a few weeks. But his father Luke is a bit of a powerbroker at the Dogs, so if you see Darcy in the line-up next week you know Bevo in not in charge. This need to blame and punish somebody is very Luke Beveridge. Admittedly Darcy's efforts in those two ruck contests were very poor, and he had minimal impact as a forward to that point in the game, but there were a few senior players who could have a finger pointed at them. Naughton missed a very gettable set shot that would have put the Bulldogs in front. The Saints ran it up the other end from the kickout and goaled. Then Liam Jones got run down in the centre square at a moment where the Bulldogs would have got back within a goal if he had just got his kick away to a wide open forward line. And Beveridge didn't coach very well at all. Subbing Darcy out was the worst thing to do in all the circumstances. Firstly, the main advantage the Dogs had over the undermanned Saints was height. The ability to double-team Marshall in the ruck, and having that extra tall forward was what got them back in the game in the second quarter. Secondly, he gets nothing out of the kid in that game but possibly long term. He should have interchanged him, explained what he did wrong, point out that he owes his team a goal and send him back out there to get that goal back. Giving up their height advantage simply led to an unnecessary blowout in the final margin. Saints have played two games now with manic intensity, which has more than made up for their lack of personnel and ability. It will be interesting to see how long they can keep up that intensity. |
| DIPPER (25/03/2023 6:31:28 PM) Some observations on Adelaide-Richmond If Adelaide ever learns to win, they will start to ... win! Could so easily have been 2-0, instead are 0-2. One of the problems with bottoming out like the Crows did is that you develop players with a losing mentality. They expect to lose and that causes them to do things that cause the loss. 22 goals and 34 behinds in two games is an obvious example. A lucky one for the Tigers, which will loom large when we check the ladder at round 23. |
| DIPPER (25/03/2023 6:27:19 PM) Some observations on Collingwood-Port Collingwood are the real deal, that is for sure. But are Port as bad as they looked today? How does it square with last week's destruction of Brisbane? Did anyone go too early declaring Horne-Francis a superstar? Is Junior Rioli a downhill skier only? Is it fair to expect young and under-developed midfielders like Rozee, Butters and Horne-Francis to get it done in consecutive weeks? So, what is real with Port? The thumping of Brisbane or being thumped by Collingwood? I think round 1 was a clear anomaly. Tom Mitchell had 1 goal, 1 goal assist, and 8 score involvements. Last week it was 2 goals and 6 score involvements. Remarkable that neither the Messiah nor Mr Masterclass could get that out of him even once over the years. Collingwood look really good. Not sure if they have gone too early; the last two premiers have built up to be invincible from July. But for now, they are number 1. |
| DIPPER (25/03/2023 6:11:22 PM) Some observations on Brisbane-Melbourne. Lots of weird stuff here. Melbourne lose the contested possessions two weeks in a row for the first time in living memory. Also got smashed in the clearances and the centre square in particular. Goodwin thought that the cricket pitch was a factor, in that the ball bounces differently in that area of the ground than it does at any other venue. If this is true you can expect Brisbane to be near unbeatable at home this season. Another factor surely was that the guy Petracca, Oliver, Viney and Co have roved to for their entire careers was out of action for virtually the entire game. I have no doubt that once Grundy had built some match fitness (he hardly played last season) Melbourne intended to rest Gawn, but this has occurred a bit early for Grundy, and the rest will be a bit longer than planned for Gawn. Then there was the light saga, and what happened after that. A couple of years ago when the lightning interrupted the last quarter of West Coast-Melbourne when the game looked done and dusted (the score was 69-36 at the time) a similar thing happened. When they returned West Coast dominated, kicked the last 4 goals of the game, and Melbourne's lead dwindled from 33 points to just 9 at the finish. In the first 8 minutes of Collingwood-Port, Power players were awarded 3 free kicks for holding the ball/incorrect disposal. There had been a few paid against Melbourne, too, on Friday night, but it seemed the rule did NOT apply to Brisbane. You can count 17 occasions where nobody would have complained if Brisbane had been pinged just as those that were paid to Collingwood, to Brisbane, to Carlton, to Geelong and, as I write this both Richmond and Adelaide got free kicks for holding the ball. So, it is hard to know what is real and what is not from Brisbane-Melbourne. Was the "real" margin 11 points or 40? Will the Dees get smashed in the centre square every game Gawn misses, or was it just the funny cricket pitch bounce that tricked them? Are Brisbane really ten goals better at home than away? And is that because of hometown umpiring? Which was the real Brisbane: round 1 or round 2? |
| DIPPER (24/03/2023 5:17:00 PM) NATO is concerned for the Cats after their 0-2 start when we all know that the only thing for NATO to be truly concerned about is the expansionist policies of Vladimir Putin! Cats should be fine in a 23-round season. 9 games to come at Kardinia Park, and they win at least 8 out of every 9 down there. And, at other venues they have the Hawthorn Witches Hats (MCG), the West Coast Witches Hats (Adelaide Oval), the St Kilda midgets (Docklands), the Greater Western Bulldogs forward line Giants (Docklands) as well as a bunch of games no worse than 50/50 against the Suns, Freo, Port, Sydney and Brisbane (away interstate), Bombers, Tigers and Pies (MCG). Give them 8 Kardinia Park wins, 4 Witches Hats wins and, say, 5 of the remaining 8 and that is a 17-6 record; enough to take out the minor premiership in a very even season. Geelong was equal favourites with Brisbane for the minor premiership before round 1, and Brisbane could be 0-4 to start the season. The Dees were the other main contender for top spot. They were lucky to dodge a bullet last week in a game that they should have lost. I predicted they would be happy to be 3-3 after 6 games. Their next 2 are against Brisbane and Sydney who both beat the Dees at the MCG in September, then they travel to Perth before taking on the ladder-leading Bombers and the "chips-all-in-on-a-flag-this-year" Tigers. 17 wins will be plenty, and don't forget that the Cats won 16 in a row last season from 21 May, including 7 at Kardinia Park (including versus Melbourne), the Doggies at Docklands, 3 interstate (Port, Suns, Eagles) and 5 (including 3 finals) at the MCG. Only need to worry if they start losing their Witches Hats games. |
| DIPPER (24/03/2023 4:36:51 PM) Yesterday I wrote: "I don't think that Hannan and Johannisen are right for that forward line." Bevo is an avid reader of this site, and immediately dropped them both! In come Rhylee West & Riley Garcia. West is above average for groundball gets, including 2 per game in the forward 50. Also above average in tackles inside 50, shots at goal and score involvements, while rating elite at goal assists and score launches. Garcia is also Riley Rhylee good! Rates above average in forward 50 stoppage clearance and groundball gets. Numbers not dissimilar to Spargo at a similar stage in his development (Garcia has played just 16 games, Spargo has now played 84 even though only 14 months older than Garcia). One thing that struck me about Spargo was that he was given a lot of games when he was very young (18 games in his first season as an 18 YO) and clearly not in the Dees best 22. (I postulated at the time that he was the coach's lovechild!) That early work paid off, and he played every game the last 2 years, and has become a key cog in how the Dees move the ball forward and score. So it might be worth it for the Bulldogs to just say to Garcia, "we are going to play you every game this season. Go and watch tapes of Charlie Spargo and model your game on what he does". Spargo is a fourth generation VFL/AFL player with genuine footy smarts, so Garcia could learn a lot from studying where he runs to in different phases of the game. It takes a few years to build up the "tank" required to do what Spargo does, so the Doggies should start with him now. PS Hey Griggs! When are you going to start charging Bevo and these guys a fee to access the insights they get from the site? |
 | NATO (24/03/2023 12:28:22 PM) Im regretting putting Geelong on top already |
| DIPPER (24/03/2023 11:28:37 AM) Some observations on Carlton=Geelong. Cats first reigning premiers to start 0-2 since the mighty Hawks in 2009. Different circumstances: the Hawks weren't the best team in 2008, despite winning the flag (it happens) whereas the Cats were clearly the best team in 2022. 2009 Hawks missed the finals, winning only 9 games. For ten years now people have been predicting the Cats falling off a cliff. Maybe this year? It is possible we have underestimated the loss of Selwood: how many teams lose a hall-of-famer and don't drop down the ladder? Some of the over-30 brigade (Dangerfield, Smith) look ok for this time of the season but I worry that Zac Tuohy might have gone around one season too long. Last night he frequently got caught in situations he hasn't in the past. When a player like that loses a yard of pace they quickly move from the asset to the liability column. Cats have some players missing, particularly down back. But in 2022 the Dees were without Lever (= Stewart) the first 8 weeks, and Salem (= Duncan) and Hibberd (=Kolodjashnij/Jack Henry) the first half of the season but still won their first ten games to set up a top 2 finish. Is Sam De Koning going to be one of those Jesse Hogan-type players who is forever sore/injured? I remain unconvinced that Ratugolea is the player Chris Scott thinks he is. Scott wanted to play him every week last season (mentioned in numerous pressers). I think that whoever talked him out of that probably won a premiership for Geelong. In close games the free kicks he gives away unnecessarily will be the difference between winning and losing. He seems to have no idea of the rules of the game, clearly demonstrated with the free kick he gave away to McStay in the goalsquare in round 1. An even starker example came in the third quarter of the 2021 preliminary final. At a ball-up in Melbourne's forward pocket he goes up in the ruck against Gawn. He puts Gawn in a full headlock, left arm over Gawn's left shoulder, arm completely around Gawn's neck with the left hand finishing on Gawn's right shoulder. When pinged by the umpire he complained bitterly about the most obvious free kick of the season! Another couple of free kicks against last night after 3 in round 1, the most of any defender in either game. He looks to be a liability to me. The more games Ratugolea plays in a season the worse the Cats go. In 2019 and 2021 he played 20 and 15 respectively, and the Cats lost the preliminary final both years. In 2020 it was only 8 games, and they made the big dance. In 2022 only 4 games (no finals) and they won it all. Imagine how good the Cats would have been if they had traded him to Port!! Good for the competition that the Blues have finally won a close one. Definitely getting more out of their bottom 6 players than they did last year. Ed Curnow played zero games last year, so he is like a new recruit in 2023, and new recruits with North of 200 games experience are hard to find without giving anything up for them in a trade. Looked better without Jack Martin on the field. Presumably he will still get games when fit, as otherwise you have just burned $6 million of your salary cap, but he has been a definite under-performer for me. His biggest return in a season was 24 goals from 22 games, but that was way back in 2017 (with Gold Coast). Hardly the numbers that would impress Charlie Cameron, Stengle, Bolton, Pickett and co (and he is getting more money than any of them). And he is another that seems to be injured constantly. A week ago Lewis Young was touted as the best defender ever seen, and then a banged-up Jeremy Cameron kicks a lazy 6 on him. Hmm. I'm not going to say I told you so, but ... At least he took that mark in the last couple of minutes instead of getting falconed by it like he did in round 22 last season. In the corresponding game last season the Cats kicked a very similar score (12.13 last year) but held the Blues to 8.7 in a convincing win (despite Stewart missing through suspension). The Cats were really humming at that stage of the season (round 18) having beaten Melbourne by a similar margin the week before. So it looks certain that the Cats problems are in the back half. Stewart (All Australian), Kolodjashnij (always got the job on Dusty, so can play), Duncan (behind only Smith and Dangerfield for Geelong possessions in the GF) and Jack Henry (I rate him) are serious losses that seem to have exposed a lack of depth. (As pointed out, when Melbourne missed Lever, Salem and Hibberd at the start of 2022 it didn't prevent them winning 10 in a row.) Conclusion: None of the data suggests the Blues have improved much in 2023, but injuries have exposed a lack of depth at Geelong. Cats travel North to play Gold Coast next week; if they lose that the alarm bells will be going off everywhere. Blues get dropped off on the way to take on GWS. If Young plays on Toby Greene Toby might kick 10 goals! |
| DIPPER (24/03/2023 8:43:51 AM) Not sure if Pres and Tossa have submitted the ladder in the order they finished 2022, or have not submitted a ladder at all. |
| ANDY (23/03/2023 6:22:48 PM) Go Blues! (Even though i picked Geelong) |
| ANDY (23/03/2023 6:20:28 PM) Think we're almost there on ladders. Frog put Crows in under Freo. Might be waiting on Tim? |
| NATO (23/03/2023 5:46:49 PM) Ladder 1. Geelong 2. Brisbane 3. Melbourne 4. Sydney 5. Western Bulldogs 6. Carlton 7. Gold Coast 8. Collingwood 9. Fremantle 10. Port Adelaide 11. Richmond 12. Adelaide 13. West Coast 14. Greater Western Sydney 15. St Kilda 16. Essendon 17. Hawthorn 18. North Melbourne |
| ANDY (23/03/2023 4:46:44 PM) Frog submitted a ladder via email to me. Have put it up, but reckon it's missing a team. |
| BREN (23/03/2023 4:20:56 PM) Sook of the week , Chris Scott, for blaming Ed Sheeran and the MCG ground for the Cats loss. Lol, give me a break!!! |
| ANDY (23/03/2023 12:40:39 PM) Adam asked me to slide Tiges into 7th on his ladder. Check it now. Need to work on my own ladder. Sheesh |
| DIPPER (23/03/2023 10:08:43 AM) After round 1 James leads the ladder comp with 74, with Trent and Karen (84) both on the podium. James has his beloved Doggies 7th but predicts, "Bulldogs do worse than I think they will". Fear not, young Jimmy, the Dogs are in good shape. Last week they won the contested possession count against the Dees for the first time in years. In 24 games last season the Dees lost the contested possession count only 4 times. Dogs dominated the game to the 20-minute mark of the second quarter but missed too many gettable shots and led by only 11 points, when 25-30 points would have been a fairer margin. Plus, they were effectively playing one short, as Lobb clearly should not have played (has since had surgery). With him out, however, it means Naughton, Darcy and Ugle-Hagan will play most minutes this week, and the Saints don't have the cover for those three if they get it in quickly. Freo went slow against the Saints last week, which meant that by the time Freo was ready to kick it inside 50 Saints had 16 players back in the defensive 50, and totally clogged it up. Unfortunate for Dogs that Weightman is injured, as they need a 30+ goal small forward to feed off the big guys. Jones did that in the pre-season, but he is injured, too. I don't think that Hannan and Johannisen are right for that forward line. They need a couple of quicker guys who specialize in groundball gets. Why not play Johannisen as the distributor off half back? He did win a Norm Smith medal in that role! That would release Caleb Daniel to play forward. Dees use Charlie Spargo in that role (identical size and shape as Daniel), and he has excellent returns for score involvements, goal assists and goals himself. When he kicks the ball inside forward 50 Dees retention rate is higher than for any other player kicking inside 50. I think Daniel could play such a role effectively. Last week Spargo had 15 possessions, 2 goals, 3 goal assists and 8 score involvements. Hannan and Johanissen combined had 12 possessions, 1 goal, 4 score involvements, and no goal assists. I know Daniel gets huge numbers of possessions in his role down back, but so would Johanissen or anybody else used as the distributor back there. We saw last week what McRae got out of Tom Mitchell: 21 possessions but all high impact. According to Champion Data that was Mitchell's 9th highest rated game ever, and when you consider how many 45+ possession games he has had you realise that it is all about impact. Daniel forward could do something similar. |
| DIPPER (23/03/2023 8:39:16 AM) Adam, you have only a 17-team ladder. Did the Tigers get relegated for throwing that game in Brisbane? |
| ANDY (22/03/2023 7:41:03 PM) First round results are up. WTF?! Tossa and Karen leading?! lol Get your ladders done. |
| DIPPER (20/03/2023 2:32:55 PM) On behalf of my Indigenous brethren I want to complain about how racist the Match Review Officer is. Why is it only us Indigenous boys getting rubbed out? Patrick Cripps did exactly the same thing last year and played the next week, and was given the medal for the fairest (and best) player in the league. So why can't Buddy, Kosi and McAdam play next week? Pure racism, that is all. You have to understand that we Indigenous Australians have been playing Aussie Rules football that way for 60,000 years. Suspending us for doing so is just another attempt to destroy our culture. We need Lidia Thorpe running the AFL (and coaching Brisbane and North at the same time). She understands. Stop the racism. We need it written into the Constitution that Indigenous players can't be suspended. That is the only way to stop the racism. |
| DIPPER (20/03/2023 2:18:37 PM) On 10 March here you read, "Curiously, one of the (other) 17 Captains tipped Fyfe for the Coleman! If that happened, Freo could improve on last year. But the goals he kicked in pre-season games were "small forward" goals, not from marks, and that will be an issue all season. Because Freo doesn't have a threatening tall forward (Taberner seems about three dozen goals/season at best) Fyfe will get a defender who can beat him in the air every week. You go back to Leigh Matthews in 1975 to find a Coleman winner who didn't rely on overhead marking to get the majority of his goals." Ten days later some of our so-called "experts" are announcing that Fyfe the forward will not solve Freo's scoring problems (Access All Areas on the AFL App, for example). Fair dinkum, you "experts" - please try to keep up! |
| ANDY (20/03/2023 11:41:11 AM) Away for a day and can't access database to fix up scores for round one. Will do so Tuesday. You can tip, however. |
| DIPPER (19/03/2023 11:34:22 PM) LADDERS DUE IN BEFORE THURSDAY!! Here is a statistical titbit that might help. Only once since 1995 has the team on top of the ladder after round 1 missed the finals!* And please check your ladders have exactly 18 teams before you press that “submit” button. *All care and no responsibility taken with this statistical data. If Essendon miss the finals in 2023 it will simply mean that Hawthorn was even more putrid than they looked. |
| DIPPER (19/03/2023 11:21:01 PM) Some observations on Hawthorn-Essendon. Essendon must be chuffed to kick a decent score without their top two goalkickers from last season (Wright and Stringer). After kicking only 3 goals against St Kilda in the last practice match that would come as some serious relief. Brad Scott clearly has made some attempt to shore up the defence, and we will get a clearer idea of how successful he has been when they come up against an opponent. It took all of half a game of football for the Hawthorn players to go into self-preservation mode. Mocking up statistics with a billion lateral kicks to each other. At the end of the year Sam Mitchell (again, as he did in 2022) will be saying Sicily should be in the All-Australian team. And all the mugs who play fantasy football and understand nothing about real footy will agree. “Look, he gets so many more kicks and marks than Weitering, May and Darcy Moore,” they will say. But they are BS kicks and marks. Weitering, May and Moore actually play on the opposing forward who is the biggest threat. Hawkins, Lynch, McKay, Franklin, and so on. And if an opposition player looks like being a greater threat than the one they are on they will move onto that player. Can anyone tell me who Sicily played on in this game? Anyone? There was a six-minute burst where it looked like Weideman was taking the game away from the Hawks. After his first two goals you might think Captain Sicily would take responsibility for him. After all, Weideman was the tallest and most threatening forward Essendon had at the time. But no, he is not even in the frame when Weideman marks again (but fortunately for the Hawks missed that third shot at goal). When Draper rested in the goal-square you might expect Sicily, being the biggest-bodied and most experienced of the Hawks defenders to pick him up. But no, leave that to some inexperienced midget; Captain Sicily is too busy building his stats playing kick to kick across the half-back line. He might be the captain, but only a herd of lemmings would call him a leader on his performance today. That would have to be the biggest disappointment to Hawks fans everywhere. Every side gets beaten, even really strong sides. But their leaders and key players lead from the front. I already mentioned Selwood’s last quarter against Collingwood in round 3 of last season. Or Max Gawn’s second half against Geelong in round 23 of 2021, with the minor premiership up for grabs. Inspirational leaders who, when the going gets tough, get going! Our game is littered with inspirational captains, from Dyer, through Barassi to the present day. If that is how Sicily is going to captain the Hawks then their rebuild will not truly start until he retires, and it is going to be an absolutely awful next ten years for Hawks fans. Here is a coaching masterclass for Sam Mitchell. To minimise embarrassing scorelines play your best defender on the most threatening opposing forward. That one has been tried and tested for 127 years! (I thought we had this particular coaching Masterclass when Tom Lynch destroyed Hawthorn with 8 goals last season.) Brisbane got chopped up by Port yesterday, and Charlie Dixon had a huge game. 14 kicks, 10 marks, 3 goals and 3 behinds and 12 score involvements. You will see parts of his game by watching the highlights. What you will also see in the highlights is that every time Dixon takes one of those contested marks Harris Andrews is right on his hammer, trying to spoil. And if you watch the entire game you will see that Andrews wins his fair share of his contests with Dixon, taking 6 marks of his own, and spoiling many other attempted marks by Dixon. Given the amount of ball coming down at speed, Andrews did pretty well to keep Dixon to 3 goals. If you watch the highlights of Essendon-Hawthorn the only time you will see Sicily on the screen is when he spoiled an overhead marking attempt by the keg-on-legs (McDonald-Tipungwuti – not sure how much turtle he has been scoffing in retirement but he looks twice as wide as he used to). You never see him up against Weideman, or Draper, or Jones – the only Essendon tall forwards. Yet Sicily finishes the game with 22 kicks, 15 marks and 8 handballs. If he had taken those 15 marks playing against an opponent (instead of kick-to-kick) Essendon would hardly have scored, as they took only 16 marks inside 50 for the game. Pathetic. |
| DIPPER (19/03/2023 10:08:43 PM) Some observations on GWS-Adelaide. The Orange Tsunami is back, although they had a slow start, and were lucky not to be ten goals down before they got started. Can’t see them making the 8, but they will trouble most sides with their point of difference. Adelaide will be peeved to have let this one slip, but they showed to me they are on the right track. Missed a lot of shots at goal that they would normally make, and that can happen in our game. Some observations on St Kilda-Freo Before this game I had Freo tumbling down the ladder. In our game you win by scoring goals, and I couldn’t see how they would do that. And 7 goals in perfect conditions against a side that finished bottom half last season and has been smashed by injury this season tells a tale. Are the Saints any good? Nothing I saw suggested that they will trouble any top 8 sides. Lyon-coached sides always have been difficult to score against, but to me the scoreline today said more about Freo than St Kilda. We will get a truer picture of the Saints after they take on the 4-headed Bulldogs monster next week. |
| DIPPER (19/03/2023 12:51:14 PM) Some observations on Melbourne-Footscray. Paradoxically I am more convinced than ever that the Bulldogs are a huge chance to win it all this season. They have drifted out to $18 the flag, and I am going to take a chunk of that because they will be wound right in when they kick 20+ goals against the Saints next week. Melbourne won this game on superior fitness alone. Every watcher of the pre-season observed that Melbourne was ahead of the pack preparation-wise this year, and that was demonstrated in the pre-season hit-outs also. That superior fitness tells in two stages of the game: late in the second quarter before the half-time break and in the final quarter. In those two periods Melbourne outscored the Dogs by 52 points and won the match by 50. And the scoreboard flattered Melbourne, due to normally reliable set shot goalkickers like Bontompelli, Naughton and Ugle-Hagan missed very gettable ones that could have blown the match wide open. People are saying the tall forward line was a flop, but I don’t believe it will be. How many other sides have a Max Gawn who can sit a kick behind the play to help out Lever, Petty and Tomlinson? And even if they do, does that side also have a ruckman of Grundy’s obvious quality to contest around the ground while Gawn is filling the hole? Most sides will get smashed by the Dogs structure and game plan. Tim English was absolutely heroic last night and will win that position nearly every week that he doesn’t come up against Gawn and Grundy. If you turn back in these pages to round 4 of 2018 Hawthorn smashed Melbourne by 67 points. I wrote then that what I saw in that game was a Melbourne game plan that would go deep into September despite the scoreboard. Sure enough the Dees got to the preliminary final that year, brushing aside the Hawks en route. This is similar to me, the experts writing off the Bulldogs and saying the tall forward line experiment has failed are looking at all the wrong things (including the scoreboard). The Dogs are right in this season; take the $18 while you can! As for the Dees it was an average performance once you take out the superior fitness aspect. BUT they did it without May, Salem, Viney and Fritsch. Carlton on Thursday night were without Walsh (=Viney) and half-back distributor Williams (=Salem). But imagine if they were also without their leading goalkicker Curnow (=Fritsch) and their best defender Weitering (=May). They would have got smashed! So, there is hope still for the Dees despite an average performance in round 1; if they can get back to full strength soon they will remain competitive. Hats off to Tomlinson, by the way. Last year he came back into the side when May was out but didn’t last long. If May is available next week Tomlinson could miss out but deserves another game on his showing last night. If Fritsch doesn’t come up but May does, they might keep Tomlinson in the backline and play Petty forward. Good headaches to have. |
| DIPPER (19/03/2023 12:09:27 PM) Some observations on GC-Sydney Suns appear to have gone backwards. As pointed out earlier, with his pathetic winning percentage Dew must be on his last chance" finals or bust. Can't see them making finals on that effort. Sydney will want another comfortable win next week against the Hawks, as they have Melbourne (away), Port, Richmond (away) and Geelong (away) after that. |
| DIPPER (19/03/2023 12:05:29 PM) Some observations on Port-Brisbane. Shocked by the result and margin, but only slightly. You see, I was there for round 1 of 1994 when the Dees "kicked the sweep" (26.18) against the Cats that day. It was after that game that Geelong coach Malcolm Blight famously stated, "it is a marathon, not a sprint." Sure enough it was the Cats in the 1994 grand final, not the Dees. The Cats won just 2 of their first 6 that season while the Dees won 5 of their first 6. I still expect Brisbane to finish well ahead of Port at the end of the "marathon". |
| DIPPER (19/03/2023 11:48:46 AM) Some observations on North-WC. Were clearly the two worst teams last season, and not a lot has changed from what I saw here. Good tests for both sides coming up next week. |
| DIPPER (19/03/2023 11:42:46 AM) Some observations on Collingwood vs Geelong. Much higher quality game than Richmond-Carlton. The best coach in my lifetime, measuring achievements with what he has had at his disposal is John Northey. Had a hopeless list at Melbourne, and got the absolute best out of them, even challenging the mighty Hawks in 1987 & 1988, and that Hawks side was probably the best ever put on the park (only Essendon 2000 could challenge them). Superstars and legends on every line, including Ayres, Langford, Mew, Tuck, Dipper, Brereton, Dunstall etc. When you look at the Melbourne side that reached the 1988 grand final you think they also had some good players (Stynes, Lyon, Viney) but they were just kids back then (aged 21 & 22); their best was yet to come. To get in the same ballpark as that mighty Hawks side two years running with what was at his disposal is one of football’s greatest ever coaching feats. But it didn’t stop there. After taking Melbourne from perennial wooden spoon candidate to regular finalist he went to the hapless Tigers for 3 seasons 1993-95. They were also perennial cellar-dwellers when Northey arrived but in 1995 got them to a preliminary final. If they had stuck with him Northey might have got the Tigers a flag but the Tigers thought they could do better with somebody else. It was another 6 years (2001) until they made finals again, and another 22 years until they won a flag. Meantime, Northey took on those perennial cellar-dwellers the Brisbane Bears. They had scraped into the 8 in 1995 with just 10 wins and 12 losses. In 1996 they won 15 and drew 1 in the home and away season, won their first two finals, but fell to eventual premiers North in the preliminary final. In my lifetime no other coach has achieved so much with so little at his disposal. But after watching Collingwood on Friday night Craig McRae seems to be on track to challenge Northey in this field. By any measure the list he has had to work with at Collingwood is simply not up to it, yet they are superbly coached to get the most out of each individual and the team collectively. Take a look at Tom Mitchell. If you scan these pages over the last couple of years you will see that I urged both the Messiah (Clarkson) and Mr Masterclass (Sam Mitchell) to use Tom Mitchell up forward (as well as at the centre bounce, of course) and get 2 goals and double digit score involvements out of him. Neither the Messiah nor Mr Masterclass could achieve that in two whole seasons, and McRae managed it in Tom Mitchell’s first game for the club. Nothing Bobby Hill did at GSW suggested he could succeed in big games, but he did plenty on Friday night. If McRae can get Collingwood into the finals again this season he will be right up there with Northey as one of the greatest. If he can snare the flag he will overtake Northey. Meanwhile I don’t think the Cats will be too perturbed, as injuries to key players during a game can be difficult to overcome. Losing Stewart and having De Koning clearly hampered is tough. Yes, there is a sub these days but Parfitt ain’t exactly Tom Stewart. Takes me back to round 1 of 1997. The Kangaroos unfurled the flag that night and took on the hapless Demons, who had finished 3rd bottom the year before. But Carey and McKernan both got injured and taken off in the first half, and Melbourne prevailed. Hawkins was clearly underdone, playing fewer minutes than any game last season, and it turned out Selwood will be missed after all. When the 2 sides met for the first time last season Collingwood led all day but got overrun in the last quarter. Just watch Selwood’s last quarter that day; you have rarely seen anything as inspirational. |
| DIPPER (17/03/2023 10:28:52 AM) Poor standard game to open the season, but fun for the neutral to watch. In 2022 both Carlton and Richmond were world champions at losing the close ones, and when the final centre bounce took place supporters of both sides must have feared the worst. In the end, true to last year's form, neither side could win the close one. Some observations about the Tigers. A forward line boasting Lynch, Riewoldt, Martin, Bolton and others managed just 8 goals from 66 (!!) inside 50s. That bears closer examination. After the game up in Sydney last season I thought Riewoldt should retire, although he had some moments after that, including in the elimination final. On last night's showing would get a game for North or Hawthorn but for no other side. Is Shai Bolton the most over-rated player in the game today? When you can't trust yourself to kick a drop punt goal from 30 metres out directly in front you are barely an Australian Rules footballer at ANY level, let alone All Australian level. More interested in his personal highlight reel than in the team winning (Wingard-style). We might have expected Martin to lose some pace over the years, but he seems to have lost the one thing that made him exceptional: his strength. Numerous attempts to fend off with his trademark "don't argue" failed, and then he couldn't make the distance with a set shot at the City end from 50 metres, when midgets like Docherty were able to bang them through from 60 metres with the wind behind. The only positives to take out of the game is that they will not be smashed at clearance in 2023 as frequently as they have been in recent seasons. Taranto looked good. Hopper can find the ball, but kicks as poorly as Tom Mitchell. Some observations about the Blues. Still no sign of a small forward who is going to feast off the spillage from McKay, Curnow, De Koning and Silvagni and kick 30+ goals this season. Stengle, Charlie Cameron or Kosi Pickett would have kicked 8 for the Blues last night, while Owies and Fisher managed just one each. Jack Martin seems to be getting a game only because they are paying him too much and wasn't interested enough to join the celebration when one of his team-mates scored a goal, even though he was the closest player to the action. Lewis Young is all of a sudden better than May, Weitering and SOS combined on the strength of one game according to the "experts" (and even his coach in the post-match presser!). But go back a couple of games. In the last 2 minutes of round 22 he was outmarked by a midget (Melksham) in the goal-square to allow the Dees back within a kick. 30 seconds later got falconed when attempting a mark that would have saved the game. And then, at the death, couldn't prevent Melksham getting the ball to Pickett for the winner. When a bloke has cost you a match 3 times in 2 minutes, he needs to do a bit more than break even with an ageing Riewoldt to be considered full back of the century. The Blues have the Cats next week; let's see how he goes there before getting carried away. Lot of easy marks dropped (including McGovern in the first 30 seconds costing a goal), sub-standard shooting for goal and a lot of turnovers (two dozen more than in the GF, for example); it is difficult to see either of these sides winning a final on that form. Just as well for them it is a marathon, not a sprint, but for the Blues at least, the way last season ended even a middle-distance event might be beyond them. |
| ANDY (16/03/2023 7:17:06 PM) Tips locked away. Good luck all. |
| DIPPER (15/03/2023 2:22:42 PM) Round 1 is upon us, and worth looking at the injury lists. Richmond vs Carlton Carlton will miss two automatic selections in Walsh and Williams, plus others who got a regular gig in 2022: Cottrell, Cunningham and Marchbank. The Tigers have a similar list. Gibcus, Soldo and Tarrant would all play if fit, but the other 5 blokes on their injured list are fringe players at best. Overall, the Blues have more missing from their best 22 than the Tiges. Geelong vs Collingwood The Cats are so much better with Hawkins than without him. Not just for his goals and goal assists, but his ruckwork in the forward 50 gave the Cats an edge over the rest last season. Menegola, Kolodjashnij and Duncan are the other regulars that will miss round 1. The Pies automatic selections to miss round 1 are Lipinski and Ginnivan, although some experts are suggesting Bobby Hill would take Ginnivan's spot even if he was available. Cats have more missing, but also more depth. North vs West Coast Coleman-Jones, McKay & Tucker are 3 automatic selections missing for the Kangaroos, and Zurhaar may join them on the sidelines, while Thomas is still in the sin bin. Only 2 automatic selections out for the Eagles, but one of them - Natanui - is their most important player. Rotham is the other one. Port vs Brisbane Port might be the only side to have a full squad to draw on for round 1. Brisbane miss Darcy Gardiner who normally gets a game, plus Callum Ah Chee and Zorko. Not sure these last 2 are in their best 23 anymore, but presumably will get some game time when fit. Footscray vs Melbourne Dees have three of their very best out: Salem, Fritsch and Viney. For the Doggies Roarke Smith, Vandermeer and Weightman would all be automatic selections if available. Jones has played small forward in the pre-season stuff in the absence of Weightman, but he is injured too. Gardner also injured - he would be a borderline selection if available. The Doggies injured list is longer but the Dees are missing 3 of their top 8 players. Suns vs Sydney A few Coasters have slid off the table this week: Budarick, Ellis, Lemmens, Powell and Weller would probably all have played if fit. Hickey missing for Sydney is a huge out for this game, as we all saw what happened to the Hawks last season when Witts was left with no genuine ruck opponent. Fox and Clarke likely would have played if fit, too. Giants vs Adelaide Not many injuries at the Giants, although Bedford will be missed. The Crows have Crouch out, but I think that helps them, because Sloane will attend more centre bounces. Hawks vs Bombers Bombers have Cox, Reid, Stewart and Stringer out, all of whom would have played if available, and Hobbs, Heppell and Caldwell could join them on the sidelines. Hawks are missing only Lewis by way of automatic selections. (Apparently that vital cog Cooper Stephens has cleared concussion protocols.) Last year they pushed the Dees when covid protocols saw 7 regular Dees miss the game, so if the Hawks can't win this one, they won't win many in 2023. Saints vs Freo Colyer and Walters are out for Freo, but otherwise their list in rude health. Saints are missing far too many, headlined by King, Membrey, Ross and Billings but most of Hayes, Coffield, Jones, McKenzie and others would have been walk-up starts, too. I like this game to finish round 1 because if that depleted Saints side could actually win, we can put a line through Freo in 2023. And it could still happen, as Ross Lyon is the master of restricting the opponents scoring, and even at their best Freo will struggle to pass the ten-goal mark often this season. In the pre-season Essendon managed just 3 goals against the Saints. True, the Dees kicked 16 in the match simulation but a week later kicked 18 against a Tigers side that nearly everyone has making the 8 and plenty are tipping to finish top 4. |
| DIPPER (13/03/2023 3:20:38 PM) To summarise: Biggest blowtorch on Hinkley, but Dew and Nicks must have their sides play finals to survive into next season. At the other end of the scale Chris Scott, Hardwick, Longmire, Goodwin, Beveridge and Lyon can pretty much write their own contracts going forward. Fans might run out of patience at West Coast if they miss finals for a third consecutive season. Sam Mitchell has taken full responsibility for the paring back of the list. Hawks fans are not used to being out of the finals multiple consecutive years, and too many beltings in 2023 might see the fans drop off, and serious pressure on Mitchell next season. The first year coaches will be given time. If Brisbane doesn't win a preliminary final this season it might be time for Fagan to hand over to somebody else, although Fagan's record will be similar to that of Hardwick after 7 seasons, and Hardwick delivered the flag in his 8th season. Justin Longmuir might feel some pressure if Freo miss the 8. McRae safe even if the Pies slide down the ladder. |
| DIPPER (13/03/2023 3:01:27 PM) One thing I haven't looked at during the off-season is the coaches. Who is any good, who is under pressure and what their records are. So let's take a look. Adelaide Matthew Nicks In his fourth year now, and a poor winning percentage (below 30%). Been there long enough to establish the list he wants. Must be finals or bust for him. Brisbane Chris Fagan In his 7th year at Brisbane. Had a 3 win season the year before he started, and he has got them to finals the last four years in a row and an overall win percentage of 53.7. Must be safe, subject to the Hawthorn racism inquiry outcome. Carlton Michael Voss A winning percentage of below 42% in his coaching career is in stark contrast to his stellar playing career. Moved Carlton up the ladder in his first season but, with the list they have so would have I (and David Teague, the Drovers Dog, Uncle Tom Cobbley and all). Carlton has a habit of chopping coaches; if they finish 9th again does Voss get a third season? Collingwood Craig McRae Unlike Voss, started like a house on fire, with a 68% win rate in his first season. Safe as houses. Essendon Brad Scott I think he can coach. Actually won more games than he lost at North Melbourne, from 2010 to 2019. The last 3 seasons they have won just 9 games (with 1 draw), and the year before he started they won just 7. Might take him a month or two to get up to speed completely based on what the Bombers produced pre-season, but could roar into finals on the back of a last 5 games against 4 sides I think will miss out on the 8 this season. In his first season at North they improved from 7 wins the year before to missing finals on percentage only. Bombers are also coming off a 7-win season. Fremantle Justin Longmuir A 53% win rate from his first 4 seasons at Fremantle must be respected. I think that in 100 years time you will be lucky to find 6 Freo coaches who won more games than they lost. The pre-season leaves me unconvinced that he has kept up with the game. The good coaches (Chris Scott, Hardwick, Goodwin, etc are going faster ball movement with more marking forwards seeking one-on-one contests in the forward 50. Not sure the Fremantle backline will be as stingy in 2023 as they were in 2022, and it is hard to see them scoring more than they did last year. Fremantle is a slider for mine, but he has dragged them up from 13th in 2019 (the season before he started) to winning a final last season. Those brownie points should keep him in place even if they miss the 8 in 2023. Geelong Chris Scott Last year's flag winner is always the safest coach in the league. That aside, name the club that wouldn't want a coach who can match his extraordinary winning percentage, which is above 70 (!!) Even Norm Smith who coached the Dees to 6 flags had a win percentage of a tick over 64 at Melbourne, and less than 57% over his career (he also coached Fitzroy and South Melbourne). Gold Coast Stewart Dew Now in his sixth season at the Suns it is absolutely finals or bust for Dew. If you can't get your team to finals after that period, and you boast the worst coaching record in the league (28% win rate) you must be for the chop. GWS Adam Kingsley Must be given time, inheriting a 16th-placed 6-win side. Hawthorn Sam Mitchell has to be safe for a couple more years. 36% win rate in first season sounds poor compared to McRae, but given how many years of rebuilding Nicks and Dew have been given with a lower win rate will be given time. Melbourne Simon Goodwin A win rate of nearly 58% with a club that has generally been at the bottom of the ladder for decades is impressive enough, but the flag tops it off. His coaching career simply reinforces what I have always thought about AFL coaching contracts, and that is they should ALL be structured like this. 1. Initial period is 5 years. 2. Add 1 year each time finals are made without making GF. 3. Add 3 years for making a GF but losing, or 5 years for winning a flag. That gives every coach a chance. If you can't get your side in finals within 5 years, let somebody else have a go. Mathematically (so, if all games were decided by a coin flip) you have a 95% chance of making finals in 5 years. Yes, some sides are coming from a long way back. But even the worst sides in history (think 1981 Demons, for example) played finals 6 years later, and with the draft 5 years should be enough. But it also stops this BS like with Ratten at the Saints, where they extend his contract and then sack him within a 3 month period. North Melbourne Alastair Clarkson First season with a basket-case club so will be given time (subject to the Hawthorn racism inquiry outcome). His 59% win rate at the Hawks might drop a little over the next couple of years. Port Ken Hinkley Moving into his 11th season as Port coach, with a 58% win record. Port had a 5-win 14th placed season the year before he took over, and have made finals in his 1st season, 2nd season, 5th season, 8th season and 9th season. Coaching big games he has 5 wins and 5 losses in finals, and ten wins and 9 losses in Showdowns. Certainly above average record but my formula would have seen him finished at the end of 2022. That was his tenth season with 5 finals appearances and no grand finals. I expect Port to struggle in 2023, and could even be 0-5 with Hinkley gone. Richmond Damien Hardwick Richmond finished 2nd bottom with 5 wins the year before he came on board. made finals in his 4th season (Dew, Nicks, take note) and then every season since, excluding 2016 and 2021. Three flags, an overall win percentage of 57%; should have the job until he decides to go. St Kilda Ross Lyon Has a 57% win rate with 2 clubs that in their history combine for a 40% win rate, and got both those clubs to a GF. Hardwick was the premiership coach in 2020, and that was the Tigers 13th premiership. Goodwin was the premiership coach in 2021, and that was the Dees 13th premiership. Lyon has had to work with 2 clubs that have won one flag in a combined 152 seasons. Doesn't have the cattle, so it will take him a few years, but he is the best credentialled coach to have never won a flag. Sydney John Longmire Outstanding win rate of almost 63%, won the flag in 2012. His side has made finals 10 of the 12 years he has coached them, including 2 losing grand finals. By my formula he is entitled to stay in the job until 2030, even if they don't make finals between now and then. West Coach Adam Simpson Took over the Eagles in 2014, coming off a 9 win 13th placed season. Missed finals in first year, then played finals 6 years in a row, before missing last 2. By my formula he gets another year even if the Eagles miss finals this season, although it is rare for the Eagles to miss finals 3 years in a row, so might get the chop anyway. Overall win rate above 58%, but suggestions that the quicker ball movement game of today might have passed him by. Bulldogs Luke Beveridge Another one with an outstanding record with a traditionally poor club. 57.5% win rate over 8 seasons. Like Longmire, a flag in his second season. Finals 6 out of 8 seasons, including the flag year plus 1 losing grand final. By the formula can stay beyond 2030 with that success. Reinvented his side on the run (similar to Chris Scott and Longmire). 2016 fag was based around a game plan with few talls and triangular handball patterns to clear the congestion, while 2023 looks like being all talls feeding off a winning midfield. |
| DIPPER (13/03/2023 9:45:02 AM) You sure tipping is ready? |
| DIPPER (13/03/2023 9:43:31 AM) Done, but if I have to do it again I will do it after round 23! |
| ANDY (12/03/2023 1:58:13 PM) Tipping is ready. Also you can enter your ladders. Dipper, you'll need to enter your ladder again. |
| DIPPER (10/03/2023 1:56:49 PM) For the record, on SEN today David King had his top 8 in order thus: Melbourne Brisbane Richmond Collingwood Bulldogs Sydney Geelong Carlton |
| DIPPER (10/03/2023 12:50:51 PM) Final thoughts on each side as you prepare your ladders and round 1 tips. Adelaide After the trade and draft period I couldn't see where the improvement would come from. But by the time the practice matches were completed I have changed my view. Upside comes from Sloane (who hardly played last season, and is, in effect, the best new recruit of any side this season), Fogarty showing he is likely to be a 50+/season man, Rankine, who kicked 29 goals in 18 games last season and can be the 30+ goals small forwards every side needed to make finals in 2022. Finishing range: 5th to 10th. Brisbane Look stronger than last year when they made the Prelim, with Ashcroft and Dunkley added and nothing of note lost (Gunston = McStay). Finishing Range: 1st to 6th Carlton Can't see where the improvement comes from. No sign of a 30+ goal small forward, none of Curnow, McKay or Cripps can possibly have a better season than 2022, below par in the ruck. Finishing range: 9th to 14th. Collingwood Better set up this season than the last 2, with Mitchell helping their clearance differential and McStay another marking target. Averaged 11 wins the last 2 seasons, a slightly flattering figure given how many they won from lost positions. I suspect about 11 again in 2023. Finishing range: 7th to 12th. Essendon Surprised how little has changed at Bomber-land, given how poor they were last season on the back of playing finals in 2021. If Brad Scott manages to catch up with the good coaches they have the tools: Draper can ruck and provide stability behind the ball with 2 metre Peter rucking in the forward 50. Their centre square starters get the ball 100 times a game but have to start going forward quickly, not sideways, and Weideman needs to start clunking marks and kicking goals, plus at least one of McD-T and Davey needs to kick 30+ feeding off Wright and Weideman. Won 18 games over the last two seasons (average 9). Shouldn't be worse than that in 2023. Finishing range: 7th to 12th. Fremantle Curiously, one of the (other) 17 Captains tipped Fyfe for the Coleman! If that happened, Freo could improve on last year. But the goals he kicked in pre-season games were "small forward" goals, not from marks, and that will be an issue all season. Because Freo doesn't have a threatening tall forward (Taberner seems about three dozen goals/season at best) Fyfe will get a defender who can beat him in the air every week. You go back to Leigh Matthews in 1975 to find a Coleman winner who didn't rely on overhead marking to get the majority of his goals. Freo has solid defence, but the way (most) teams are moving the ball in 2023 they will concede a lot more than they did in 2022. Opposing coaches will put time in to reducing the output of Brayshaw & Co in the midfield, and Switkowski will start to get the type of defenders that generally play on Bolton, Cameron and Stengle. Appear to have lost more than they have gained, and likely to follow the Essendon 2021-2022 trajectory. Finishing range: 11th to 16th. Geelong Best coached side last season, with a ruck set-up being copied by others now. Hard to go back-to-back, but the fundamentals are still there to be in the hunt. Finishing range: 1st to 6th. Gold Coast Last season they appeared to be on an upward trajectory, and King's addition sounds like that should continue. But I don't believe it. Their practice match form was woeful, although Touk Miller adds a lot. In a tough season where most of last year's finalists look as good or better, and some down the bottom have improved, I think they will barely hold their own. Finishing range: 12th to 17th. GWS Liked the look of the new Orange Tsunami in the one practice match they played, although the opposition was very average. Can they play that way AND defend turnover against the better sides? I doubt it, as they lack the structure of a Geelong (Stanley behind the ball, Stewart intercepting) or a Melbourne (Gawn behind the ball, Lever intercepting), Western Bulldogs (English behind the ball, Jones intercepting) etc. In what will be a high-scoring season they might kick some of the highest scores. But that style of play, conceding the ruck and contested possession, doesn't stack up for long enough. Finishing range: 11th to 16th. Hawthorn Going super young with an eye to the future. The scrimmage against Geelong gives an indication that they might suffer a few beltings this season. Won 8 games each of the last 2 seasons and appear very unlikely to top that. Finishing range: 13th to 18th. Melbourne The most impressive thing from the pre-season was the idea of rucking McDonald in the forward 50 and having the genuine ruckman behind the ball. When you have been ahead of the game for as long as Goodwin has been it can't be easy to copy the ideas of others, so plaudits due there. Goodwin, along with Beveridge appear ahead of the game on another front: more marking options forward as the game speeds up and there are more one-on-one battles ahead of the ball. Gawn and Grundy forward will create headaches for sides also trying to cover Brown, McDonald and Fritsch. Hunter looks as good a pick-up as any in the off-season; he obviously had some issues at the Bulldogs, but looks ready to produce the form that saw him win a B & F at the Dogs in 2018. If Bowey continues to develop Hunt won't be missed. Seem to have the depth everywhere. Who noticed that Fritsch, Viney and Salem didn't play against the Tigers? Finishing range: 1st to 6th. North Surely the Messiah can get them more than 2 wins this season, although most of their players that might get a game at another club seem to be injured. Finishing Range: 13th to 18th. Port Views on Port are fairly polarised. I think their structural deficiencies cannot be overcome to the extent of having a winning season. Thrashed in the ruck, midfielders too young and small when they come up against the heavyweights, no 50+ goals in a season player on their list, best small forward (Fantasia) constantly injured, insufficient leadership. The Port leadership group is Jonas, Wines and Byrne-Jones. The Cats replace Sellwood with Dangerfield, and their leadership group is Dangerfield and Stewart. Dees have Gawn & Viney. Even Carlton has Cripps, Weitering & Walsh. My point is that Jonas, Wines and Byrne-Jones do not put fear into other sides. But every side that comes up against Geelong, Melbourne, Carlton & others will have a specific plan for Dangerfield (particularly when he goes forward) and Stewart (to prevent him dominating with intercepts), Gawn, Viney, Cripps, Walsh, etc. Finishing range: 13th to 18th. Richmond One of the hardest to assess. Many of their dynasty players must be in about their last season (Riewoldt, Cotchin, etc). I think that if they were still a ruthless club they would have retired Cotchin, and you have to be ruthless to succeed in the AFL (remember Nathan Jones in 2021? They could have sat him on the bench as an unused substitute and he would have finished his career as a premiership player). Remember the Cats when Stevie J went off the rails? The ruthless suspension turned him into a Norm Smith medalist. Compare North with Tarryn Thomas and see where you end up when you stop being ruthless. Despite that, however, they still have the fundamentals to even win the flag: key forwards, competitive ruckmen, a 30+ goal small forward, quick ball movement. Finishing range: 5th to 10th. St Kilda Nothing to inspire here, got worse over the off-season and now have injuries as well. Lyon might make them harder to score against but the good sides will cut through (Melbourne kicked 16 goals in the scrimmage game without Fritsch, for example). Finishing range: 13th to 18th. Sydney Probably the most even side all over the ground. If you tag Warner then Gulden might bob up with 45 touches and 3 goals. Certainly their bottom 6 (and it is hard to name them!) contribute more each week than Carlton's bottom 6 (for example). Would need a lot to go right to challenge for the flag, including Buddy going 50+ again, Hickey and the McCartin boys avoiding injury. Don't have the superstars of a Geelong, Richmond, Melbourne or even Carlton, but their output from all over the ground keeps them in contests. Well coached: Sydney's ball movement over the last couple of years was ahead of the game, although Geelong caught up a bit last year and others are working on it this year based on practice games. As the other sides catch up in the one area Sydney had an edge they might drop off in 2023, so I am reluctant to consider them a lock for the 8. Finishing range: 4th to 9th. West Coast Coming off a deplorable two-win season, but with plenty of known good players back who hardly played last season. Naitanui injured again doesn't help them, and Kennedy retired reduces their scoring capability. Looked awful against the Crows in pre-season, but might get better as the season progresses. Worst case is they improve but still finish bottom 4. Finishing range: 10th to 15th. Western Bulldogs Have the set-up that could blow everyone away in 2023. Made the grand final in 2021 when it was "Naughton or No-one" up forward, and now they have Darcy, Lobb and Uge-Hagan to stretch every defence in the league. When you have a winning midfield those guys are going to get opportunities to put massive scores on the board, and can other sides match their score? Backline looks much improved with Liam Jones back in a guernsey. They look to have traded well. Their over-abundance of quality midfielders means Dunkley won't be missed, and they now have the talls to trouble most sides. Wouldn't want to see a wet winter. The line-up could be tampered with week to week, but 12 games under the roof should give them ample opportunity to exploit their tall forward line. They have 5 consecutive games at Docklands through June and the beginning of July, which is when I expect them to surge up the ladder. Not so sure that 2 games in Ballarat and one in Darwin are the best fixtures for how they want to play, but overall they should be happy with the draw. Finishing range: 3rd to 8th. |
| DIPPER (10/03/2023 10:19:34 AM) Observed that on SEN on Monday both Nathan Buckley and Kane Cornes (avid readers of this site) nominated Adelaide as an even money chance to play finals this season. That was the day after I posted that $4.50 Crows for the 8 was the best bet of the season. |
| DIPPER (5/03/2023 10:52:47 AM) In summary, what have we learned from the practice matches? 1. Brisbane and Melbourne look like locks for the top 4 (each is $2.10 at Sportsbet). 2. Dogs are the best value bet for the flag at $15. Their point of difference this season (4 talls forward feeding of a winning midfield) could win it all. They have made finals each of the last 4 years, and if you keep doing that you are a big chance to snare one. 3. Adelaide at $4.50 to make the top 8 looks great value for the reasons outlined below. They seem much more likely to me than shorter priced sides like Port, St Kilda and Carlton, and just as good a chance as Freo, Sydney, Collingwood and Richmond. Bring it on! Can't wait for round 1 with some mouth-watering matches. Tigers vs Carlton. Loser misses the finals. Cats vs Pies. Will it be as close as the QF was? North vs Eagles. Which has landed: the Eagle or the Messiah? Port vs Brisbane. Huge upset possible. Melbourne vs Dogs. Shootout at the MCG Corral. Suns vs Sydney. Closer than you think. Giants vs Adelaide. The two big improvers go head-to-head. Saints vs Dockers. Possible nil-all draw. Hawks vs Bombers. Amazingly, one of these sides will be in the top half of the ladder for one round at least! |
| DIPPER (5/03/2023 10:35:11 AM) What insights have the pre-season games given us into the 2023 season? And how reliable are they? While you can start every sentence with "it was only a practice game" there was a lot of consistency about the results. Four teams failed to win a game. North, last season's wooden spooners were one of them, and they look destined for a bottom 4 finish again. Gold Coast have never made finals and are regularly down the bottom of the ladder. Given that they played sides that finished 15th and 16th last season, two losses and a percentage of 73.2 does not auger well. Hawthorn is expected to struggle this season, having cut deep for a rebuild, and leaving themselves a squad much younger and underdeveloped than any other club. Port is the other winless side. Perhaps a surprise candidate for bottom 4 for some, but they have deep structural problems. Constantly thrashed in the ruck, lacking a small forward to kick the 30+ goals all 2022 finalists had, and lacking a forward who has ever kicked 50 goals in a season, it is hard to imagine they will be in the finals race in 2023. In a year or two, when Rozee, Butters, Duursma and Drew become Bontompelli, Treloar, Macrae & Liberatore (or Petracca, Oliver, Viney and Harmes) they might be in shape to challenge. Five teams were undefeated, noting that GWS and the Dogs played only 1 game. Should we be impressed with the Doggies thrashing of North? Given that North ran last year's finalists Richmond to under a kick the week before, it should stand up as decent form. The score was huge (22.13 143). In round 3 of 2021 the Dogs kicked 25.17 167 against North and led the grand final by 19 points halfway through the third quarter. The talls (Naughton, Ugle-Hagan, Darcy and Lobb) kicked 10 between them, and they will stretch most backlines. They look more stable behind the ball with the addition of Jones and with Josh Bruce going to defence. The Dogs will win the clearances most weeks. They lost Dunkley from last season, but that just means Bailey Smith gets more time in the centre square and on-ball. What do we make of GWS? With Himmelberg returning to the forward line after spending some time shoring up the defence last season, Jake Riccardi (now 23 years old) possibly taking a big step forward, the possibility of both Hogan and Greene playing 20+ games in a season, GWS certainly has the firepower to score heavily. The Tigers ripped the guts out of their midfield in the trade season, signing up Taranto and Hopper forever, but when you have had a million first round draft picks in the last ten years replacements will be found. Kelly, Tom Green, Perryman and Coniglio shared most of the centre bounce work, and others around the midfield, like Ash, Cumming, and Callaghan got plenty of the ball against Gold Coast. The ruck is a worry, as both Preuss and Flynn are B-graders, but their trajectory looks up from last season. Brisbane was the most impressive of the unbeaten sides, holding both of the 2022 grand finalists to just 6 goals each. And given how convincingly the Swans dealt with the Blues (kicking 15 goals) and Geelong dealt with Hawthorn (kicking 21 goals) that was no mean feat. Big candidate for top 2 home and away, and a chance to reach the big dance at last. Melbourne didn't do much wrong, eclipsing St Kilda (who finished 10th last season after looking a likely finalist until Ryder got injured, and clobbering Essendon by 6 goals in their other practice match) and Richmond by significant margins. When Gawn is producing the same output as two premiership ruckmen and Grundy is adding to that the Dees look a strong candidate to finish top 4 for the third year in a row. The surprise unbeaten team was Adelaide, defeating both the WA sides, including a ten-goal pounding of the Eagles. Is Adelaide back in the frame as a top 8 side? They seem to have been rebuilding forever, but 2023 might be the season it starts to come together. Here are a few reasons why. Up forward Fogarty is emerging (as shown late last season) as a genuine marking forward capable of kicking 50+ goals in a season, while Walker, who kicked 47 from just 18 games in 2022 is still a threat. Izak Rankine kicked 29 goals in just 18 games in 2022, the most of any small forward who did not play finals. Sloane returning after just 4 games last season gives them a bigger-bodied midfielder to go along with their possession accumulators (Laird, Crouch, Keays). Mitch Hinge might have an injury-free season and show why I tipped him (pre-season) for the Brownlow the last 2 seasons. And this is the second year they have had the fitness guru Burgess, who did so well at the Dees in the run up to their flag. I think the hype about a big step forward for the Crows this year is real. That sorts out the top and bottom sides from the pre-season; what about the other half of the sides that had one win and one loss? Essendon, Richmond and West Coast defeated only winless sides, and their percentage from the two games was in the range 72 (Eagles) to 80 (Essendon). Richmond over the last 6 years have been notoriously slow starters, so we might give them a bit of slack. But it is worth remembering that history shows when you start trading for midfielders you risk taking a perennial finalist and genuine challenger on a slide down the ladder. When the three-peat Hawks did this (Mitchell, O'Meara) that marked the beginning of an era without winning a single final, and that era seems unlikely to end any time soon. Will Taranto & Hopper signal the demise of the Tiger dynasty? That is not to suggest Taranto and Hopper are not good players. In yesterday's practice game Taranto was Petracca-like in output (33 possessions including 12 contested, 13 score involvements, 551 metres gained, 2 centre clearances among 5 clearances, 2 goal assists and a goal himself). But it is the first sign that they have gone away from what fueled their success (and Hawthorn's before that) of trading for big guys (ruckmen and key position players) and drafting/developing the rest. Last year's premiers traded for Stanley and Ceglar in the ruck and Cameron at CHF, and Ollie Henry this season. 2021 premiers traded for Lever and May, Ben Brown and now Grundy. Previously the Tiges had traded for Nankervis, Lynch, Tarrant, and the like. And the 2018 premiers got Josh Kennedy for Judd. It might work out for them with Hopper and Taranto, but history is against it. Geelong, Freo, Sydney, Collingwood all played finals last year and all won 1 and lost one of their practice games. Collingwood was the least impressive of them, just falling in against the Hawks and losing to a side that missed the 8 last season (Carlton). In the last two seasons Collingwood have finished 17th and preliminary finalists. Which of those represents the real Collingwood? I think it is about half-way in-between, somewhere between 7th and 12th. Freo averaged just 79 points per game against the SA sides, neither of which made finals last year. They are certainly hard to score against, but so were Melbourne in 2018-2020, and they made finals just one of those three seasons. I have Freo pegged 7th-12th as well. Sydney got touched up by Brisbane and then did a job on Carlton. I still think they are a long way short of the best sides and over-achieved last season. In the qualifying final they were completely under control until the umpiring decision in the May-Franklin incident completely change the momentum of the game. Another dodgy umpiring decision (Papley free kick and goal) got them over the line against the Pies. And then the grand final showed them where they truly were. Likely to make finals this season as they are better than ten or 12 sides but not a genuine top 4 chance. The Geelong result against Brisbane after slaughtering Hawthorn suggests a gulf between the top and bottom sides, and there always is! At this time of year every side claims to be "flying", every player is "the fittest he has ever been", every side expects to play finals. But I can guarantee you one thing: one of those sides that is "flying" will finish 18th! And another guarantee: by round 18 at least half the field will be out of contention for finals. Geelong made the 2021 prelim and won the flag in 2022. Their improvement was on the back of their new ruck setup, using Hawkins, Stanley and Blicavs the way they did. Hawkins hasn't played this pre-season and is no certainty to roll up for round 1. And even if he does can he carry the load of the forward 50 rucking and score 50+ goals at his age with no-pre-season to speak of? As Brisbane showed if Hawkins is not there, or cannot reproduce 2022, other teams have a chance. Geelong seems certain to play finals in 2023 regardless as they have excellent depth, but the setup that made them unbeatable in the second half of the 2022 season is at risk. Finally, Carlton and St Kilda each won one and lost one, which puts them in the middle of the pack. Last year they finished exactly 9th and 10th, so that looks about right. But at the halfway point at the season both stood at 8 wins and 3 losses and were 4th and 5th on the ladder. Saints lost Ryder to injury (then retirement) at a critical time, and Carlton always had a tough run home, exacerbated by the injuries they had. Has anything changed this year? Not particularly. Carlton still has the longest injury list of any side, and the Saints seem bereft of talls all over the ground. The Lyon approach of being the most defensive side in the competition was on show against Essendon, restricting the Bombers to just 3 goals (although they missed plenty of gettable ones). But the week before they conceded 16 to one of the stronger sides, suggesting they will be middle of the pack again. |
| DIPPER (4/03/2023 11:31:04 PM) GWS crunched the Suns with quick movement of the ball. The "Orange Tsunami" might be back, which would be good for football. That style of play, where you are losing clearance and contested possession doesn't generally stand up in big games and finals, but it is exhilarating to watch. Not sure about Gold Coast though. Last season it was, "Ben King has done a knee, everyone rally around and put in 100%", and that made them competitive. This season it might be, "Ben King is back, let's just stroll around and wait for it to happen". They looked as undermanned as I can remember them once you take Miller out of the side. As predicted, it is on! The Western Bulldogs are the new Blight-coached-Cats. "We will score big; see if you can keep up!" 10 goals to the talls, 22 all up; here we go! Mostly too big for North. 52 more marks, 17 to 6 marks inside 50, 10 contested marks to 2, etc. I mentioned earlier that Hewett, Cerra and Kennedy had (TOTAL combined) 10 score involvements, 1 goal assist and one goal. Bontempelli had 12 score involvements, 1 goal assist and 2 goals. And he didn't need 72 possessions (what the Carlton 3 had combined) to achieve that. Enough said. After North got close to Richmond last week you could hear the word "Messiah" wafting around the Northern suburbs. After that showing against the Doggies, we aren't so sure. Particularly as Richmond went down by 8 goals to Melbourne. Even in their premiership years the Tigers were a little slow out of the blocks, often around 6-4 or 5-5 after ten rounds. But the competition is more even than ever, and if you settle back off the pace there is always the chance that you will have some stupid losses by less than a kick to sides like Gold Coast and North and miss that coveted top 4 spot. When was last time Dusty Martin or Shai Bolton played even a half-decent game against the Dees? Hibberd has kept Dusty quiet the last couple of seasons, and he played in the reserves today. The bloke who kept Bolton near kickless last time they played (Jayden Hunt) played in Perth. After relying on too few last season and running out of steam when it counts (September) the Dees have gone for a new plan in 2023. Instead of Gawn rucking 80% of game time it will be closer to 50/50. Instead of having Petracca and Oliver at 90% of centre bounces they are going to run 7 or 8 blokes through there every game: Petracca, Oliver, Viney, Brayshaw, Harmes, Pickett, Neal-Bullen, Sparrow, Rivers. No doubt the "A-Team" will have more minutes in the big games and/or the big moments, but the load definitely will be spread more in 2023. Dees also clearly working on moving the ball faster this season, particularly when one of the ruckmen is resting in forward 50. Gawn and Grundy kicked 3 each today, and they are going to be a difficult match-up for sides already looking to have somebody tall enough for the gangly Brown and strong enough for the bullocking McDonald. Particularly as with 4 umpires they are picking up a lot more of the times defenders manhandle the forwards before the ball arrives. I think Goodwin and Beveridge have identified that outcome quicker than most and will be looking to exploit it with tall forward lines and fast ball movement leading to one-on-one contests in the forward 50. One more thing different from the Dees. When only one of their ruckmen is on the ground Tom McDonald did all the ruckwork in the forward 50 (Hawkins style) allowing Gawn or Grundy to set up a kick behind play. This was a key tactic in Geelong's flag last year, so, if it works, copy it! Those 3 combined for 9 goals, 3 goal assists, 25 score involvements, 23 contested possessions and a couple of dozen hitouts. Nankervis/Soldo won the hitouts (37-24) but combined for just 18 possessions (11 contested) and 5 marks (and no score or goal assists, and just 5 score involvements). Gawn alone had 17 possessions (10 contested), 8 marks and 3 goals 2 behinds, 1 goal assist and 11 score involvements. Nankervis/Soldo have 4 flags between them, yet one player matches the output of the pair! The ruck is something the Dees can build another premiership tilt around. |
| DIPPER (4/03/2023 11:43:31 AM) Just to round out the humour of Cooper Stephens being a "notable absentee" from the Hawthorn side I note that the Dees "notable" absentees are Viney, Fritsch and Salem, and nobody would argue about any of them. But they don't mention Jake Melksham who has played over 200 games (and, if Melksham never plays another one, Stephens needs just(!) 201 more to match him). His last 4 were round 22 vs Carlton where he kicked 4 goals, including one from a pack mark in the goalsquare in time on of the last quarter to get the Dees within a kick and on the final foray forward won a contested ball at ground level and got it out to Pickett for the winning goal. Then had a goal and 3 goal assists in the thrashing of Brisbane in Brisbane, and then played 2 finals. So, he has done more in his last 4 games than Cooper Stephens has in his entire career, and that might still be true when Stephens retires! Hilarious!! 414 players run out every week in the AFL competition, and Cooper Stephens is the 649th ranked player in the league. (I was the 648th, and I took the entire season off!). So, if EVERY side had 13 players out through injury (and only Carlton is approaching that figure at the moment), Stephens would just miss out on squeezing into a side. Scary to think he is a "notable absentee" at the Hawks, they might be in for a long, long season!! |
| DIPPER (4/03/2023 9:41:48 AM) Crows flogged the Eagles by ten goals. The forever-rebuilding Crows might have finally turned the corner! Mitch Hinge is finally injury-free, and justifying why I tipped him (pre-season) for the Brownlow the last 2 years. Darcy Fogarty started to look like a key forward towards the end of last season, and he seems to have gone to another level. They probably won't get the same output they have recently from Walker, but he still takes a decent, good-sized defender and he will create opportunities for Rankine, Rachele and co. Crows won the contested possessions and contested marks, so perhaps one additional pre-season has made a strength difference to the side. For the first time I believe they can improve on last season. And the Eagles? Natanui or bust, for me. I have already demonstrated that throughout his career the Eagles win enough games to make top 8 when he plays and their win rate when he misses would see them miss the 8 every season. While they looked OK against Port (who also have no rucks) Adelaide exposed them. O'Brien vs Jamieson in the ruck was a thrashing. 5 marks to 1, 6 score involvements to 1, more disposals, inside 50s and twice as many hitouts. Eagles played a very experienced midfield (Yeo, Sheed, Kelly) and actually won the clearances (although lost the centre square 14-12 on the back of those hitouts). Nic Nat has an Achilles issue, with no fixed date for his return. First 4 rounds they come up against Goldstein, Sean Darcy and Gawn, so that doesn't auger well. |
| DIPPER (4/03/2023 9:02:14 AM) Swans chopped up the Blues by 7 goals. Only 22 scores to 19, so the scoreboard probably flatters Sydney a little, but they won the inside 50 count 59-48, and the stoppages 40-31, which is reasonably consistent with the scoreboard. Blues won the hitouts, too, so that suggests that Carlton is many goals better when Cripps plays than when he doesn't. Yes, Docherty, Hewett, Cerra and Kennedy get the ball a lot, but it is the Cripps possessions which convert to goals. Kennedy, Hewett and Cerra had 10 score involvements 1 goal assist and 1 goal between them; Cripps averages those numbers by himself every game. McKay didn't play, so the Swans backline wasn't fully tested, but Mills and Papley, who would both be among the top 3 Swans sat it out also. Sydney got 6 goals from the marking forwards (Franklin, Reid & McLean) and the usual spread from the midfielders/flankers. Solid enough, but how bad is a Cripps-less (Crippled?) Carlton? Blues still don't get enough out of top ten picks like O'Brien, Plowman and Dow. It is like, "whatever I (fail to) produce you have to play me because I went top ten". I doubt the Blues make finals until they move those guys on and replace them with low draft picks who work harder to get a game. Probably missed an opportunity in the most recent trade period (only Will Setterfield of all those under-performing top ten picks was traded) because if those guys have one more sub-standard season they will have zero currency in the trade business. |
| DIPPER (3/03/2023 6:46:47 PM) St Kilda-Essendon was hard to get enthused about. Saints dominated possession and kicked a losing score, but still won by 6 goals(?!) WTF??!? Can't imagine either side troubling the top 8 this season. About the only take-away is that if you play the Fantasy game Phillipou looks like a steal. |
| DIPPER (3/03/2023 6:27:32 PM) Hawks vs Collingwood. A week earlier Hawks got smashed by the Cats, while Collingwood went down to a side that missed the 8 last season, so a close finish between these two sides is probably about right. From the Hawks perspective Captain Sicily gives a guide. The previous week coming up against Jeremy Cameron and a side that uses the ball well Sicily had very little impact, while against the Pies he had a more commanding presence. Hawks won the contested possessions which young sides will do in March and will do less often in August. Worpel and Newcombe had 13 inside 50s between them; about the same number Tom Mitchell has in a season. Fergus Greene? Really? Same height as Fritsch but looks about 10 kg lighter; it is hard to imagine him getting a touch against each side's best defender (Weitering, Stewart, May, etc). It is good to know they will not be hopeless in 2023, but it seems certain the Hawks will lose more than they win. The Pies seem to be getting what they want from Tom Mitchell, which is to avoid the lop-sided centre clearance count that saw them behind the 8-ball in many games in 2022. Just because they won plenty of those games it doesn't make it sustainable. McStay looks like being a typical 2 goals/week man, but one of he and Mihocek will need to kick 50+ if the Pies are going to progress from last season. And if McStay and Mihocek are kicking only 2 each against this Hawks side it is hard to imagine either getting a bag in a big game. If you were picking the team tomorrow Bobby Hill would be out for Ginnivan. Not quite sure what Oleg Markov is all about; unlikely we will see him again this season. So, nothing particularly positive or negative to come out of this game for either side. For amusement, however, it was funny to see the list of "Notable absentees" for each side. Maynard (All Australian last season, tick), Ginnivan (40 goals last season, tick); these absentees notable. For the Hawks it included Cooper Stephens. Notable? Really? 7 games in the midfield for the Cats last season, averaging 10.8 touches a game. No wonder they got rid of him. Had I played in the Cats midfield last season I couldn't have helped but get 15 touches a game, even at my age! |
| DIPPER (3/03/2023 5:46:08 PM) Cats got chopped up by Brisbane. Were without both Hawkins and Cameron for this game. As I noted earlier if those two plus Stengle kick 180+ goals again this season everyone else is playing for second. But if those guys don't come up (and Hawkins has not had a pre-season) half a dozen other teams are in with a chance. One of those teams is Brisbane. They have come up against the two grand finalists in the last couple of weeks and restricted them to 6 goals each. That is a good start for a team that has been the highest scorer over the last 2 seasons but conceded too many goals to the top sides to be a genuine flag threat. Ashcroft seems to be this season's Nick Daicos: the only draft pick that looks like he improves his team. Some key pillars (McInerney, Andrews) will want to stay healthy, but then the Dees have a reduced win rate when May or Gawn miss, too. They look like they will be tough to beat this year. |
| DIPPER (3/03/2023 12:00:57 PM) Brief update from each of the practice games. Port unlikely to win enough games to make finals while getting thrashed in the ruck. At a key point in the second quarter Switzkowski received Darcy's hit out on the chest and waltzed in for a goal. When Port close close in the last quarter it was another hit out to advantage, centre clearance and immediate goal that changed the momentum of the game. Freo got 5 goals from Fyfe and Taberner, but none of them from marks, all of them in the "accidental goal" category. Nothing to indicate they have improved their scoring ability on last year, and a slide down the ladder looks likely. |
| DIPPER (28/02/2023 1:52:14 PM) What coaching tweaks will we see in 2023? Geelong will almost certainly do what they did in 2022. If it ain't broke, don't fix it! No change at the Dees either. Their failure to go back-to-back was not a game plan issue, but too many injuries to key cogs in the setup (Lever, May, Gawn and Jackson). They can reasonably expect more output from Grundy in 2023 than they got from Jackson in 2022 (and even 2021, when Jackson was just an average second string ruckman until the third quarter of the grand final, when he was up against an ageing and tiring (and soon-to-be-retired) Stefan Martin). Grundy has been an All Australian ruckman twice in the era of Max Gawn, Nic Natanui and Todd Goldstein (never All Australian, but does have the most hitouts in history). The Gawn/Grundy setup is a point of difference which will see most other clubs play 2 ruckmen against the Dees. As St Kilda showed in the scrimmage, if you can't compete with their height advantage and hitouts to advantage you will be starting from a long way back against the Dees. Tigers are interesting. During their successful era that did what the Hawks had done before them in their threepeat era: trade for big guys (Nankervis, Lynch, Tarrant, etc) and draft/develop midfielders. This time they have traded for midfielders (Taranto, Hopper). Both those players are higher possession players than anyone at Richmond, and both are higher clearance players than anyone on the Richmond list. Does this signal a change in intent from the Tigers? Or are they just replacing the midfielders who have retired? A key moment for Hardwick was round 1 of 2022. Traditionally the Tigers have chalked up the round 1 bye as 4 premiership points, but they got smashed by Carlton that night. The scoreboard didn't do justice to Carlton's dominance (the final margin was just 25 points, and the Tigers led until the 11 minute mark of the final quarter) but if you look deeper it was a smashing. Carlton won the clearances 40-22, the inside 50 count 64-40 and had 31 scores to 21. Whereas he could have acknowledged that the game had moved past the Hardwick style of 2019/20 after the 2021 season, I think it was that game that nailed it for him. It was too late to do anything about it after round 1 of 2022, but those trades were done very quickly once the trade period began. I am pretty sure that the focus of the Tigers in 2023 will be to be more competitive at clearance. While they still have Lynch & Riewoldt at one end, Tarrant, Grimes and Vlastuin at the other and competitive (but not outstanding) rucks in Nankervis and Soldo, and a fitter-looking Dusty than they have had for a couple of years, I reckon they are "all-in" on 2023, as most of those guys are past 30 years old. Footscray might be the one to do something different. Even without Dunkley their midfield is as good as any, and they have been experimenting playing 4 (!!) talls in the forward line at the same time (Naughton, Lobbe, Darcy and Ugle-Hagan). They look like they might be like the Malcolm Blight coached Cats teams of the late 80s and early 90s: "We will score heaps, see if you can keep up!" That would certainly stretch some sides that finished above them last season (Fremantle, Richmond, Brisbane, Collingwood and Sydney in particular; I think the Cats with their ruckman constantly behind the ball and the Dees, with the ruck dropping back option on top of May, Lever and Petty) might survive it, and run the ball out of the backline against such a cumbersome forward setup. But it will be interesting to watch! Brisbane and Sydney both made preliminary finals last year, and Brisbane have been right up the pointy end for years now, so it would be surprising if they did much different in 2023. Collingwood has traded to be different in 2023, despite their success in 2022. A second marking forward (McStay) to help out Mihocek, and an attempt to be more competitive in the centre square clearances (Mitchell). I think McRae is a realist and knows that the ladder result in 2022 was a fluke based on winning too many games from losing positions, and that he had to change things up to have a chance at finals in 2023. I think they will actually improve in 2023 but miss the finals, which most Collingwood supporters will find hard to accept (i.e. I think they will believe the side has gone backwards in 2023 if they miss finals). Fremantle don't seem to be looking to change much. Fyfe replaces Lobbe as a marking forward, and Jackson instead of Meek as the second ruckman and forward target. Last season Lobbe played both roles: pinch-hitting in the ruck and kicking goals from marks, with Meek largely getting a run only when Darcy was injured. Expect that from Jackson, but don't expect him to match the goal tally Lobbe had last year, so goals from Fyfe will be important. They will need to improve their scoring on last year to be in the hunt, and I remain unconvinced on what I have seen so far. Carlton look like doing everything that failed last year again. Of course, you are always a chance to play finals with two key forwards combining for > 100 goals, built on a strong midfield, but they still lack a productive small forward and the backline needs work. St Kilda is shaping up as the train wreck of the season. The few decent talls they have on their list all seem to be injured, with the exception of Marshall, and he has only ever been effective in tandem with Ryder. Lyon has always been the most defensive coach in the league, but they gave up 16 goals against the Dees, whose leading goal scorer over the last 2 seasons (Fritsch) didn't play. If that is the best they have they are in big trouble. Port has tried to play without a full-time genuine ruckman most of 2022. They had just 584 hitouts for the season. The average of the other 17 sides was 838, and the average of the sides that made finals in 2022 was 887. I am unconvinced this can work, so it will be interesting to see if they try anything different in the ruck in 2023. Gold Coast seem to be planning more of the same and hoping having King in the goalsquare lifts them to the promised land. Hawks will need a few more coaching master-classes than they had in 2022. They do look like they want to go more direct in 2023; in the scratch match against Geelong the first time they won the ball in the back 50 they pinged it straight down the guts to goal, and we know that Worpel and Newcombe get the ball inside 50 more frequently than Mitchell and O'Meara ever did, but they will need to win more contests at either end of the ground to be competitive. Crows also seem to be on the more of the same path. Kane Cornes and Healey were giving Thilthorpe a pump up as the next superstar ruckman. To me the ruckwork is not the problem, it is that their midfielders are undersized against the better sides. Bombers have a chance to play Geelong-style footy, and I think they will try to emulate that. Two marking targets in Wright and Weideman, a small forward who can kick 30+ in a season (McD-T), Wright taking the forward 50 ruckwork with Draper behind the ball. They have the centre square players who average 100 possessions/week already; the task is to get those guys to go forward quickly in the style of Dangerfield, Petracca, Cripps, Dusty; all the other really damaging midfielders. Brad Scott has been watching the game unfold from a distance the last couple of years, so I am sure he has identified the trends that are changing the game. Giants yet to see. Seem to think it is all about goalscoring power, with plenty of eggs in the Cadman basket while losing good midfielders to Richmond. Based on what the good coaches are doing that seems unlikely to work out. Eagles look to be going to more of a Tigers 2019/20 setup with Darling and Allan the Lynch/Riewoldt pins and having some of their better players (like Yeo) coming off half-back. Will improve them this year (although much of that will come from improved availability of quality personnel) but as 2021 showed with the Tigers unlikely to be enough to get them to finals. Having said that, however, if Natanui can play 20 games this season that will put them a step ahead of the 2019-2021 Tigers. North has the Messiah. Presumably they will be harder to score against in 2023, but they did give up 109 points per game in 2022, while scoring only 60 themselves. Cutting that deficit in half will be a start but may not get them off the bottom of the ladder. GWS, who finished 16th, only had a deficit of 13 points per game on average, and the Eagles will be much better in 2023. |
| DIPPER (28/02/2023 11:34:43 AM) Time to look at the coaches and coaching trends in the game. Here is an overview of the last 4 years. Hardwick was one out in 2019/20 with the repeat Tigers. While they were good in the centre square, they "gave up" the clearances around the ground, playing one fewer at the stoppage and one extra behind the ball, relying on an intercept turnover game, with "slingshot" run and carry into the forward half. There is nothing new under the sun, of course. Students of the game will remember "Kennedy's commandos" at Hawthorn (for non-baby boomers a book came out last year (50th anniversary) which is available from HFC) who played very much in that style. The 1971 Hawks would flood back, win the ball (intercept), run the ball out with handball chains (and knock-ons, etc) and, when within range, kick it to Peter Hudson. Nobody of Hudson's class these days but Lynch and Riewoldt between them were just as good as Hudson. Two flags in two years that way, but 2021 missed the finals. What changed? One thing is the "stand" (on the mark) rule allowed other teams to move the ball quicker, giving less time for the Tigers to flood back Kennedy Commando style. Additionally, Goodwin trumped it by showing you could win clearance AND intercept. Instead of playing one short at the stoppage they would even the numbers, generally winning the clearance count by virtue of dominant ruckmen (with hitouts to advantage) and contested ball bulls like Petracca, Oliver, Viney, Harmes and Brayshaw. But when the opposition got the ball they had a team defence zone in place, focusing on taking the midfield space to prevent a switch. When the opposition tried to switch it frequently got picked off (intercepted) and if they stayed narrow, going down the line they ran into May and Lever and Petty (and Gawn or Jackson), leading to intercepts or another stoppage (where Melbourne had the advantage). This approach got them top 2 finishes two years in a row and one flag. Why not two flags? Lever missed a lot of footy injured, and even when he came back he was not the dominant interceptor he had been in 2021. May missed some games, both Gawn and Jackson missed games and Jackson's output fell in the second half of the season once he had decided to return to WA. Plus, Chris Scott had a new plan. The Dees had dominated the Cats in 2021, with Gawn in particular dominating them everywhere. Setting up behind the ball in round 4, as well as winning 41 hitouts from 65 ruck contests, carrying the side on his shoulders in the second half of the round 23 clash and kicking 5 goals in the preliminary final. After that the Cats recruited a second genuine ruckman (Ceglar) as those games showed that rucking Blicavs and Ratugolea was giving the Dees too big an advantage. Then they rebuilt their setup around stoppages, with Hawkins rucking in the forward 50 and Stanley playing a kick behind the ball to stabilize the defence if they lost the clearance. Frequently when the stoppage was between the arcs Stanely would stay in that kick behind role and Blicavs would contest the ruck. In the back 50 Stanley would contest the ruck, as Gawn had got 2 preliminary final goals by overpowering Ratugolea (who had put Gawn in a headlock to try to prevent the hitout to advantage) and Blicavs (who Gawn buffeted out of the ruck duel, grabbed the ball and snapped a goal). While Chris Scott had Melbourne very much in mind this setup was also successful against most other sides. The other thing the Cats changed was to move the ball faster after winning possession. This was a direct flow-on from the ruck setup giving them greater stability behind the ball, so that if they did turn it over they had excellent capacity to win it back, or at least slow down the opposition and force them wide, as Melbourne had done in 2021. So, from the back 50 you saw them careful with the ball, but if they won it between the arcs, it was full speed ahead, giving Hawkins, Cameron and Stengle maximum one on one opportunities. The new style was a bit shaky in the first nine rounds (4 losses and some narrow wins) but once it was bedded down, they were (literally) unbeatable. What coaching tweaks will we see in 2023? |
| DIPPER (27/02/2023 6:34:12 PM) Let us see if we can yet identify which sides have improved on 2022, and how. Adelaide Some organic growth (as all clubs have): players get another pre-season under their belts. Fogarty offers hope of improvement in their forward 50 marking although, with Taylor Walker ageing, the likelihood is that the pair produce about the same number of goals as they did last year. The backline looks about the same. Still lack midfielders of size, although Sloane offers more grunt there than they had last year. Overall, enough improvement to hold their position and not lose ground. Brisbane Ashcroft looks to have the potential to improve Brisbane the way Daicos did with Collingwood last season. If Gunston stays fit he probably provides a bit more mobility than McStay, which could help minimize damage when they lose the ball in their own forward line. Dunkley is supposed to be a plus, but it just means less midfield minutes for Cam Rayner. It looks like Adams will miss the season, which leaves Brisbane a bit soft at the back against sides with multiple marking targets. Wouldn't want to lose Harris Andrews or Oscar McInerney, but overall seem improved sufficiently to retain their position from last year. Carlton A lot of injuries but that can be overcome; Melbourne had 12 players unavailable due to injury before round 1 of 2021, including plenty of talls, but had a reasonable run after that with all the key guys. Still can't see a small forward that might kick 30+ this season. No obvious improvement on last year when they had a dominant midfield and 2 excellent key forwards kicking goals but still didn't make finals. Collingwood I have been down about the Pies chances, but David King (who knows his stuff) believes McStay brings more to Collingwood than they lose with Grundy departing. I am less convinced because I value ruck dominance: the entire history of the game shows that is the springboard to victory. But key forwards are important to Collingwood, as they have nobody on their list who has kicked 50 goals in a season. If McStay can kick 50+ the Pies shouldn't slide too far. Not convinced Mitchell is in their best 22, as there are already guys like Crisp and Maynard who are not getting as many centre square minutes as I would like to see. And when will Ginnivan get a centre square start? Still a slider for me. Essendon Need to see Wright and Weideman averaging 6 goals/game between them in the absence of a clear third threat. McD-T improves them, but Stringer injured again. Most improvement can come from ball movement. Merrett and co in the centre square average 100 possessions/week, just as Petracca and co do at Melbourne. But whereas the Melbourne players go long and direct the Bombers trio go sideways and backwards too often. In the scrimmage it wasn't helped by the fact that Witts dominated against a second-string ruckman; Draper can give them a better look. Jury out. Fremantle Still not convinced they have the avenues to goal. Wait and see for now, but unlikely they have improved sufficiently to do better than last year. Geelong Look even better than last year. Selwood a loss, of course, but Bowes, Bruhn and O Henry would all be automatic picks at any other club. If Hawkins has fitness issues the Ollie Henry trade might bring home another premiership. Gold Coast Yet to see how much difference King makes. Ben Long looked a plus against the Bombers and if Witts stays heathy, they won't often be beaten in the ruck. With one of the least battle-hardened lists their organic growth might exceed others, perhaps in the way Sydney did last season. Should hold their position, but unless King kicks 70+ goals may miss finals again. GWS No scrimmage last week, will come back to them. If Cadman kicks 12 against the Dogs this week (a la Coleman on debut) I might change my mind about them. Hawthorn Flogged by the Cats, but that will happen to plenty of sides in 2023. I expect them to have half of their wins for the season in rounds 15-19, before tailing off again due to being too young and underdeveloped. So, something like 4-9 in the first 13 games, 4-1 in the next 5, 0-4 thereafter. 8 wins would be the same as last season, so that suggests improvement. Melbourne Personnel-wise look better; Grundy for Jackson is no loss, and Hunter looks like an automatic selection. Jayden Hunt is a good player, but they didn't like to play him and Bowie in the same side, as both similar in size and attributes. So they might have gained more than they lose by getting Hunter and losing Hunt. Forward line not really tested against an under-sized Saints outfit; the Tiges will be more interesting. I still think they will end up sending Petty forward later this season. Brown and McDonald both 30 and injury-prone; with Weideman (and Mitch Brown, and Majak Daw) gone there needs to be a back-up plan. Van Rooyen looks talented, but he is a different type to the contested marking beast that Petty can be. Salem missing but missed most of last season, too. Brayshaw takes his spot at half-back with Hunter on the wing. I expect Grundy to do better than Jackson did last season. Having two All-Australian ruckmen who can both go forward and terrorize defences is something we have never seen before, and it could be the point of difference that wins it all. North Based on the scrimmage against Richmond you get the impression that the list is not as bad as they performed, because last season they were as bad as any side in the last 40 years. Let's put it down to the Messiah factor for the time being. Likely improvers on that showing but they could improve a long way and still finish 18th this season. Port Gray and Motlop retire while Rioli comes in and Fantasia is effectively a new recruit. Amon leaves and Horn-Francis comes in. Personnel-wise it looks about the same. The key to them is how quickly Rozee, Butters, Duursma and Drew become Petracca, Oliver, Viney and Harmes. That would be a big jump this season, but they will all be at least 23 at some point this season, so even noticeable progress in that area could see Port rise. Trouble is they could move along that trajectory this season and the season could already be shot by a 0-5 start. No certainties to play finals, which could spell the end of Hinkley. Richmond Castagna quitting doesn't help, as he has been a key cog for a while now. Fellow premiership players Caddy, Edwards and Lambert have all retired, with Hopper and Taranto coming in. Does Cotchin have one more Selwood-like season in him? Does Riewoldt have one more 50+ goal season in him? If those guys run out of puff I think Richmond has lost more than it has gained this season personnel-wise. But if Riewoldt is effective and dangerous, and Lynch can stay on the park then Cumberland could be the key to their improvement in 2023. Not sure they need Cotchin as a forward, to be honest. Trying to think of an overage midfielder who went forward in his twilight years and made a difference. Fyfe would be a better chance to do that than Cotchin, but even he hasn't done it yet. Robbie Gray, perhaps? Certainly got the job done in some big games. Sort of thing you can imagine Bontompelli or Petracca or Cripps doing in the future, but they have more size than Cotchin. Last century you had Leigh Matthews, of course, and Robbie Flower was in that category. Kevin Bartlett, too. We will see about Cotchin, but it is possible he is no longer in their best 22. But if Cotchin is no longer in their best 22 they must have improved on last year! St Kilda Gone backwards. Lost Ryder and chased De Goey instead of Grundy? Who is running that joint? Did they not notice how well they were going until Ryder broke down? And how few games they have won since? Looked under-sized and overwhelmed last week. Will want to show something against the Bombers this week to convince me they aren't bottom 4. Sydney Lost a bit of depth with the retirees and delistings and picked up very little (Aaron Francis and some draftees). I think they had their big "organic" growth spurt last year. Not convinced about their capacity for reliable repeatable goal scoring. Can Buddy have another 50+ goal season? If not, is McDonald good enough to fill the void? The Swans outsmarted a few sides with their ball movement last season, getting more goals from midfielders and flankers than most. But that will be scrutinized in the off-season, and every team will have a plan to counter that in 2023, just as Geelong did in the GF. I don't see the improvement at Sydney. West Coast Personnel-wise it is like having half a dozen proven AFL standard players added to their list after the horrendous injury run last season. On that alone serious improvement seems certain. Western Bulldogs Yet to see them scrimmage, but they look better than last season in terms of talls. Jones at one end, Lobbe the other, English is approaching the peak age for a ruckman, and who knows where Darcy ends up, or how good he might become? Bruce will either be back to his 2021 peak or out of the side, so still possible upside there, as he was a waste of space when he got back on the field in 2022. Dunkley a loss? Perhaps, but how many of Bontompelli, Liberatore, Macrae, Treloar, Bailey Smith, Johanissen, Dale, etc can attend a centre bounce? Under the current rules only 3 of them at a time, so no big deal. They have had a Rolls Royce midfield and a Chrysler Valiant at either end of the ground for a few years now. I think the Rolls Royce rolls on with one cylinder less but the Valiants get a major upgrade this year. |
| DIPPER (27/02/2023 4:04:40 PM) "Who cares?" you say, "they are just pre-season practice matches." True, there are no premiership points to be collected, and it is not the results that are important. The games are a decent guide to the season, however, if you know what you are looking for, and there are 2 main things to look for. 1. How has the side improved from last year? and 2. Are they kicking enough goals from reliable, repeatable sources? 1. Improvement If your side doesn't improve noticeably from one season to the next it gets overtaken by other sides. Take the 2021 grand finalists, who both had essentially the same squads in 2022. Melbourne went backwards in 2 ways. The key players, the big guys, missed many more games in 2022 than 2021. Gawn, Jackson, May, Lever, McDonald played 120 of a possible 125 games in 2021, which is 96%. In 2022 it was 94 of a possible 120; 78%. Secondly their fitness was inferior to 2021 generally. In 2021 the Dees ran over sides in second halves all season, and won 19 third quarters, but in the 2022 finals lost twice after building a 3-goal lead. Part of that was probably the fitness guru moving on to Adelaide, and part of it what we have often observed: that it is so much harder to do the work once you have won the flag. The Dogs also went backwards in the big man department, as Martin retired, and Bruce missed most of the season and was uncompetitive upon his return. 2. Reliable scoring methods In the 2022 pre-season we saw Carlton defeat Melbourne, and "the Blues are back, and finals-bound" could be heard everywhere. But break down what happened in that game. An enormous proportion of Carlton goals came from 50 metre penalties as the "dissent" crackdown began. Reliable? Repeatable? Absolutely not, as the Blues missed the finals. So, what is "reliable and repeatable"? Look at how Geelong got their goals in 2022. Two key forwards smashed it, and their main small forward chipped in with >50, much of it roving to those key forwards. In the scrimmage last week Hawkins was absent, but the system was the same, with both Henrys (not as big as Hawkins, but good overhead) filling that role. So, the system stands up, even if the personnel are different. That is what makes it reliable and repeatable. In last week's scrimmages three sides towered above the rest in terms of reliable, repeatable scoring methods. They were Brisbane, Geelong and Melbourne. Key forwards taking marks, small forwards feasting off the spillages from the contests, and so on. Melbourne also got goals from two of their trademark sources: 1. The wingers keeping their width and running goalsquare to goalsquare; and 2. Straight from the centre square after a hitout to advantage (this time it was Petracca with the long bomb from within the centre square). Brisbane got goals from their tall marking guys and from the spillage when they didn't mark. Geelong the same. All teams score "accidental" or "random" goals. The ball pings around and just bounces your way or falls into your lap. That will always be part of the game, but if that is the main source of your goals you are not going to kick enough goals to get to the big dance, and rarely to win the big games. In the 2021 GF each side got 9 goals out of their mid-fielders, flankers and wingers, most of which were what I call "accidental" goals: you can't build your game plan around Johanissen taking mark of the year in the goalsquare, because he will do it only once or twice in his career. Similarly, you can't build your game plan around the opponent coughing the ball up in the back pocket (as led to Spargo's goal). That doesn't mean you don't want pressure in your forward 50, absolutely you do, and from time-to-time goals will come in that way, but you will be lucky to get one or two a game from that source. But the Melbourne marking forwards and rucks had a dozen goals between them in that game, most of them from marks, whereas the Footscray side had zero goals from their big guys taking marks. The difference in the game was exemplified when the Dogs almost took the lead early in the second quarter, missing a shot after having kicked the first 3 of the term. The kick-in goes to Salem in the back pocket. He goes down to the wing, where Jackson takes a contested pack mark. He kicks to the forward 50, where Brown takes a contested pack mark, goes back and slots it. The method there can be replicated dozens or even hundreds of times in a season. Of course, the ruckman won't always take the mark on the wing, the forward won't always mark inside 50, and sometimes will miss the shot. But it is a reliable method of scoring goals that you can go to again and again, and it will come off often enough that it puts you in the picture to play finals, win finals, and even win it all. None of the other sides from last week's scrimmages showed enough to convince me that they have the reliable, repeatable scoring methods to go deep into the finals. However, we are yet to see GWS and Footscray, while sides like Richmond had most of their leading goalkickers not playing. (Just read that Castagna has quit; the only surprise to me is that it was him and not Dusty!) So, plenty to look out for in this week's practice matches. |
| DIPPER (27/02/2023 2:20:57 PM) And the rest of the "match-sim" games. Fyfe played forward and kicked 3, but Freo managed just ten goals for the game. Freo were the lowest scoring side in the 8 last season, 100 points fewer than Collingwood, who had 97 fewer than Melbourne who had 310 fewer than Geelong and Brisbane. It is not clear how they can solve the low scoring problem. Jackson seems to have delayed concussion symptoms as I write. Hopefully he will just miss a practice match and not an entire season, as some have done with this issue. Adelaide were near full strength, with only Walker missing from their best 22. They were unconvincing down back, with Taberner kicking as many goals in a half of football as he has kicked in most months of his career. With Rankine the small forward Rachele played midfield most of the time. I am not sure how that helps them. Rankine has kicked 57 goals (about what Charlie Cameron and Tyson Stengle kicked last season) from 48 games and Rachele kicked 17 from just 13 games. And the Crows already seem to have their quota of undersized centre square players. One plus for the Crows is that it looks like Sloane will be back and effective, which doesn't always happen after missing a season. West Coast have half a dozen Rory Sloanes back this season and definitely will rise up the ladder. Last season Oscar Allen and Tom Cole played 0 games, McGovern 10, Natanui 8, Sheed 1, and Yeo 5, to mention just their better players - many of their depth players missed half a season as well. How high they rise might depend upon Oscar Allen: how many games he plays and what level he goes to this season. Port will have been chuffed to see Fantasia get through a game without injury, as he is very much key to their fortunes this season. As mentioned, in 2022 the 8 finalists had a small forward kicking 30+ goals while the ten sides that missed the finals did not, and Fantasia looks the most likely for Port. Horne-Francis showed more endeavor in one practice game for Port than he did in a whole season for North. Let's check his attitude after round 5 when Port is likely 1-4, or possibly 0-5. I am not convinced that Port can make finals with their ruck setup. Boak getting injured doesn't help their cause there, either, as he has been their most consistent midfielder over the journey. The last two flags have been won by the sides with the best ruck setup and in the 4 years before that the only time the Tigers failed to win the flag was when they came up against a quality (All Australian standard) ruckman (Grundy) in the finals. St Kilda looked a top 4 hope when both Ryder and Marshall played and barely won a game after Ryder went down injured. West Coast threatens everyone when Natanui is at the centre bounce. Since Natanui debuted in 2009 the Eagles have won 56.57% of games Natanui has played. When he misses their win rate plummets to 47.78%. Don't underestimate the importance of the ruck. Later this week the WA and SA sides switch opponents, which might give some guide as to which of these non-finalists from last year might be able to get there this year. Some heavyweight stoushes too: Cats-Lions and Tigers-Dees. Be interesting to see if North can hold the Bulldogs to under 20 goals as they trial their super-tall forward setup (Naughton, Lobbe, Ugle-Hagan and Darcy). Not sure we can learn a lot from Giants-Suns. After seeing what Melbourne did to St Kilda last week Essendon will want to kick the sweep this week to show any improvement from last season. Sydney-Carlton might give us an idea as to whether Sydney were an over-performing outfit last season who are really a mid-ladder side. Hawks and Pies is of considerable interest, as neither side has serious (50+/season) goalkickers, and both performed poorly last week. Mitchell has 50 touches and Hawks win? That would be hilarious: they never won when Mitchell had 50 touches playing for the Hawks! |
| DIPPER (24/02/2023 6:27:41 PM) Early Friday games. North held the Tigers to 11 goals, although Lynch, Bolton and Castagna, who kicked half their goals last season didn't play. Dusty looks like suiting up this season - I got that one wrong. Maybe it is possible North will be competitive this season after all. There was less than a kick between Carlton and Collingwood last August, but the Blues improved their result by a few goals this time around despite the long injury list. Don't get too excited Bluebaggers; I think the Pies will really struggle in 2023. Lost too much height and strength, have no 50-goal-a-season player and unlikely to win virtually every close match again. Sydney has never worried about pre-season matches much but were still disappointing against Brisbane. Like Collingwood the lack of big guys will tell eventually, even if you over-achieve in one season. For Brisbane McStay out and Gunston in looks like a draw for 2023 (as long as Gunston stays healthy) but Ashcroft is the only youngster I have seen so far who looks capable of improving a side the way Daicos did last season. Overall, the lions look better than last season, although it will be interesting to see them up against a side with genuine talls all over the park. The Saints vs Melbourne doesn't tell us anything, as the Dees were just too tall and dominated the air against a side without Max King, Jack Hayes and Tim Membrey. But King and Hayes are out for a while, so the Saints will likely struggle, although Phillipou looks like a ready-made AFL player. For Melbourne Hunter looks like an automatic starter and Grundy at least as useful as Jackson was in 2022. His role meant that when a fresh Gawn went into the ruck the hitouts-to-advantage numbers soared. With a forward line based around Brown and McDonald (but without Fritsch) the Saints gave up too many goals. Might be the case often this season for them. Rivers to the centre square for the Dees was interesting. After keeping Weightman just about kickless in the 2021 grand final Rivers was actually dropped last season for a period, and now he gets Clayton Oliver banished to the half back flank! He might be on the rise (like so many other Rivers recently!) |
| DIPPER (24/02/2023 2:22:49 PM) A quick update after Thursday's scrimmage games. Gold Coast rolled out their best available 22 (excluding the injured Miller and King, but Kin might be one of those injury-prone players they might have to get used to playing without) and couldn't beat the Bombers, who were trying a few possibles in place of those certain to get a run. If Gold Coast has improved from last year, it is hard to see where. In the first minute of the game it was Parish (Brownlow) to Weideman (Coleman) for a goal and it looked like the million dollar bet was looking good. But Peter Wright kept dropping marks he should have taken and, generally speaking Essendon's ball movement and general play did not appear much different to last year. They are a work in progress. Cats looked like they haven't missed a beat from last season. When I assessed the ins and outs a little while back you will see I though Ollie Henry could play and he, Cameron and Stengle kicked 11 between them. If Hawkins gets fit and has similar output as to last season the Cats will be hard to stop going back-to-back in 2023. Their biggest problem is they now seem to have at least 30 players who would get a game at Hawthorn, but won't be able to squeeze them all in. One thing they did well last year, however, was give their ageing stars breaks during the season so they could perform in the finals; a key difference to 2021. They certainly have the depth to go down that path again. Hawks didn't win enough contests at either end of the ground, although their midfield was competitive. Sicily disappointed in his first "game" as Captain. He will be leading a backline regularly under siege this season, so if he doesn't stand up and win some contests it is going to be a loooong season for Hawks supporters. None of his comrades back there that Hawthorn has tried in recent years (Hardwick, Grainger-Barrass, Day, Blanck, etc) seem to have gone to a new level, and Frost is just ... Frost (reasonable player, tries hard but not likely to dominate games like we have seen from Lever, Allir, McCartin, Darcy Moore, McGovern, etc. Need to get more out of Reeves. He seems to think his only role is to win some ruck taps but he needs to learn where to position himself on the field after the ruck contest. When to get back and help the defence. When to offer himself as an option for the dump kick out of defence. Meek had a better idea of all this stuff, and I don't think they can persevere with Reeves until he learns some of this. Koschitzke still looks a year or two away from being a key forward at this level. Wingard (who obviously is a fan of this site) actually did a few team things for a change, so that is one area of improvement. However, when you realise that the Hawks have had 6 weeks more pre-season than the defending champs, you wonder how ugly that Easter scoreboard might get. Hawks have a practice match against Collingwood next Thursday. The Pies lack height and key forwards, so expect a much better showing next week. |
| DIPPER (20/02/2023 3:00:24 PM) I know there are a number of Hawk supporters here, and the burning question around the traps is "Have the Hawks cut too deep?" Most of the experts are comparing the Hawks to North after they went through a similarly brutal exercise. North won 9 and drew 1 of their 66 games over the last 3 seasons. And, as I pointed out below, regressed in 2022 to be one of the worst sides we have seen for at least 40 years. I also pointed out that records like that can be turned around fairly quickly, pointing out Sydney climbing from hopeless in 1993 to minor premiers and grand finalists in 1996. But they came on the back of a once-in-a-generation player (Tony Lockett) joining the club and averaging nearly 5 goals/game during his time there. Is there such a player in the AFL today? And if there was, would he go to North? The answers are likely no, and no. Hell, they couldn't even keep Horne-Francis, the number 1 pick that was supposed to lead them up the ladder. Poorly run clubs (and everyone will agree that includes North over the last several years) make wrong decisions about who to keep and who to let go. If we have a look at the players who took the field for North in the last round of 2019, their tenth win for the season, the following players have moved on and got games at clubs going better than North has been the last few years. Ben Brown to Melbourne. Trent Dumont to Port Adelaide. Sam Durdin to Carlton. Shaun Higgins to Geelong. Robbie Tarrant to Richmond. Mason Wood to St Kilda. That is one third of a starting 18 unwanted at North who are clearly better than the players who replaced them. Who was calling these shots? North's opponent that day in the final round of 2019 were Melbourne, who finished 17th that season. They also had players on the park that day who have gone on to get games for other clubs: Sam Frost at Hawthorn and Brayden Preuss at GWS. Frost is a reasonable player, but there was no clear role for him at the Dees once May and Lever were set in the key defensive posts. Preuss has managed just 28 games since his 2017 debut, for clubs that finished 15th, 17th, 9th and 16th. That would suggest that if Preuss is the answer you are asking the wrong question. So just 2 of the players who took the field in the last round of 2019 got games at other clubs, while 12 of them became premiership players at Melbourne. Clearly better decision-making than North about who to let go and who to keep. So, back to the Hawks. Ben McEvoy retired. The other senior players who have left since last season include Liam Shiels (who also retired but will top up his superannuation with a season at North). Then there is Jack Gunston, Jaeger O'Meara and Tom Mitchell. These last 3 played for the Hawks in round 23 (Shiels did not and will not be missed). Gunston will get games at Brisbane, a genuine top 4/flag chance team, as long as his body holds up. A super-important cog for the Hawks over the last 4 seasons thanks to Simon Goodwin. Yes, that is not a misprint! When Goodwin showed how Tom McDonald could be used in 2018: key forward (53 goals in the season), pinch-hitting in the ruck (60 hitouts in a very part-time role), drifting back into defence when protecting a lead late in quarters, or even moving back there to plug a gap (which he last did in round 1 of 2022 when Salem got injured), as well as starting on a wing (getting a mismatch and then drifting forward), Alistair Clarkson was not asleep at the wheel. He realised Gunston could do something similar, and he used Gunston that way in 2019 & 2020, to good effect. Either Sam Mitchell was not paying attention or, because of the back problems that saw Gunston miss all of 2021, as Gunston was reduced to a key forward role only in 2022. Perhaps now that Mitchell has seen Geelong do something similar with Blicavs in 2022 (although used as a key back rather than a key forward like McDonald) he might have woken up to the possibilities. Too late now as Gunston is at Brisbane. O'Meara and Tom Mitchell arrived at Hawthorn for the 2017 season. 3 flags 2013-2015, finals 2016 (but out in straight sets). Aside: unlucky to lose to the Cats in the first week of 2016 finals, as missed a few chances at goal in the last ten minutes of a game they lost by 2 points after the Cats kicked the last goal of the game. The culprits for those Hawthorn misses? Gunston (19 minute mark, Shiels (21 minute mark) and Isaac Smith (29 minute mark). All 3 now playing at other clubs. But I digress. Since O'Meara and Mitchell arrived the Hawks have zero winning finals (out in straight sets in 2018 the only year they made finals). What to make of O'Meara? Obviously has some talent, as won every "young player" award possible in 2013 & 2014. But then? His Wiki page reports, "Due to Tom Mitchell's injury preventing him from participating in the 2019 season, O'Meara was widely seen as Hawthorn's most effective midfielder". Really? You should try telling that to those Hawthorn people who awarded the 2019 Peter Crimmins medal (Best and Fairest) to James Worpel. The midfielders that make a serious difference get it done forward of centre with inside 50s, score involvements, goals and goal assists. Think Bontompelli, Petracca, Dangerfield, Dusty. (6 of the last 7 flags among that lot, by the way!) In 2019 Worpel had 16.6% of his possessions as inside 50s, 9 goals and 11 goal assists. O'Meara had just 14% inside 50s, 8 goals and 8 goal assists. Worpel is now 24, had the pre-seasons to be approaching his peak. Same age as when Petracca started making the All-Australian team. O'Meara, by contrast, turns 29 this week. Just as Worpel stepped up in 2019 with Tom Mitchell missing the season I expect him to get back to that sort of form in 2023. Tom Mitchell has extraordinary ability to get the ball, and very little talent for doing something useful with it. His dinky little sideways kicks and handballs out of scrimmage mean you effectively need two players to perform the role of one Dangerfield, Bontompelli, Petracca or Dusty. He also gives up costly goals being outmarked by opponents like Bontompelli, Petracca, Dangerfield, Dusty, Cripps and others. Although only an inch or so shorter than Jai Newcombe, James Worpel, etc. Mitchell is not known for his vertical leap and overhead prowess, which is exploited by other coaches. In his Brownlow year only 13.9% of Mitchell's possessions went inside 50. has won just 42% of all the games he played for Hawthorn, and just 3 of ten finals in his career - all at Sydney. Of those key midfielders referred to, only Dangerfield has lost more finals than won (46%, still much better than Mitchell's 30%), Bontompelli has 58% win rate in finals, while both Dusty and Petracca have 62.5% win rate in finals. I think that Hawthorn will improve from moving on O'Meara and Mitchell and having Worpel and Newcombe taking their time in the centre square. Newcombe's career inside 50 rate is 18%, something Mitchell could never even dream of. He is only young but seems to have one of those bodies that will stand up to the rigors of the role from that age (like Bontompelli, Clayton Oliver and others). Gunston is a loss only if he stays healthy. Meek is a decent replacement for an ageing McEvoy, and Shiels will not be missed. So, while North Melbourne cut very deep a few years ago they let go players who are getting games in strong teams and were far better than their replacements. The Hawks have not lost much at all by comparison and have excellent replacements ready to step up. Brave move by the club and coach, but I think it will have a positive outcome. |
| DIPPER (16/02/2023 4:04:54 PM) Just how bad are the bottom sides from last season? North and West Coast managed just 2 wins each, and both had a percentage below 60. West Coast had some special problems with injuries, so we might ignore them for this exercise. Melbourne had a similar disastrous injury run in 2019, which saw them plummet from preliminary finalists in 2018 to 17th on the ladder in 2019. Although they missed the finals in the covid-shortened 2020 season they won it all in 2021. West Coast were premiers in 2018, and it is reasonable to expect them to climb the ladder again in 2023. North, however, are a different kettle of fish. Their 2 wins were against a combined WAFL side (when West Coast were at their lowest ebb) and a crazy game against Richmond in the midst of a sequence of games where Richmond blew winning positions against Geelong, Gold Coast, North and Freo. In the entire history of the VFL/AFL no side has gone winless in a 22-game season. Even in the Gold Coast Sun's first season (2011), and even though they managed a percentage of just 56.3, the Suns eked out 3 victories. North's 2-win 2022 included a percentage of just 55.8; even worse than the first season Suns. The nearest a side has come to a winless 22-game season would have to be the Dees in 1981. One win, which was by just 1 point against second-bottom Footscray (2 wins for the season) and 21 losses. The Dees never went close to another win that season, the nearest being a 17-point loss to Richmond. Their average losing margin was exactly 50 points, and only 3 of their defeats were by fewer than 5 goals. They conceded an average of more than 130 points per game and, although they managed a percentage of 63.5 it could have been much worse. Their opponents on the season knew they could be a bit slack against the Dees and kicked 406 goals and a whopping 437 behinds. These included scores of 16.32, 12.24, 17.25, 17.32, 22.35, and so on. When was the last time your side conceded 30+ behinds three times in a season? Over the next 5 seasons the Dees were more competitive, winning between 6 and 9 games each season (1982-86) and eventually made the finals (top 5 in a 14-team competition) in 1987, on the back of 5 consecutive wins in rounds 18-22 against 5 sides that missed the finals, including the bottom 3 sides in the competition, all of whom Melbourne played twice that season. If we consider 2022 North on about a par with those 1981 Demons, history suggests that if a lot of things go their way, they might just sneak into finals in about 6 years' time (2028 approximately). Yes, I know they have the Messiah (Clarkson) coaching them. But back in the early 80s (1981-85) the Messiah of Aussie Rules coaching was Ron Barassi, and he had been gone 2 seasons before the next coach (John Northey) got the Dees into the finals. Along the way the Dees (under the Messiah) showed glimpses, as I am sure North will, too. In 1984 the Dees were 8 wins and 7 losses with a health percentage after 15 rounds, but then lost 6 of their last 7 to finish 9-13 (with a percentage of 104, the fifth best in the league that season) and 2 games out of the finals. Of course, one might consider the 1996 Fitzroy side as (one of) the worst in history. Like the 1981 Dees they won just one game in a 22-game season (although at least that win was by a respectable 31-point margin). But their situation that season (already known to be getting the chop from the league) make comparisons to other sides not particularly relevant. The 1996 Roys, by the way, scored exactly 66 points per game on average; 2022 North managed just 60.8 points per game. Yes, it was a higher scoring game (in general) back then, but not by as much as you think. The 1996 minor premiers (Sydney) kicked a total of 2,152 points in the home/away games, while in 2022 Geelong managed 2,146. The 1993/94 Swans also went one win and 21 losses both seasons, with percentages of 63.3 and 78.1. The old Messiah (Barassi) was sent up there to work his magic. He didn't get them to finals in his 3 years (1993-95) but he got the competitive (and got them Tony Lockett!) and in 1996 they were minor premiers and played in the Grand final. When we think about poor teams, generally a specific game/result comes to mind, those massive scores/thrashings that make the record books. By and large, however, they are just indicative of a side that wasn't playing flat out on the day. The highest score ever was Geelong against Brisbane in 1992, but the Bears weren't the bottom side that season. Geelong's score of 37.17 pipped by 1 point the previous highest score of 36.22 by Fitzroy against Melbourne in 1979. Melbourne wasn't completely hopeless that season, finishing second bottom with 6 wins and a percentage of 75.9. Oh, and the following week they beat finals-bound Essendon by 5 goals. For the youngsters who don't remember anything that happened last century, Geelong kicked 37.11 against Melbourne in 2011. Melbourne finished 13th of 17 that season with 8 wins and a percentage of 85.3. By and large those mega-thrashings are just one-of events, not indicative of the whole season. So, to put the new Messiah's task with North Melbourne into context the 2022 Roos were pretty close to as bad a football team as we have seen for over forty years. If North win more than 6 games in 2023 I will "dip me lid" to Mr. Clarkson, and if they play finals, I will eat that hat! |
| DIPPER (11/02/2023 12:09:10 PM) As usual, within 24 hours of my posting the goal-kicking analysis of each team the AFL app realised that they had overlooked this important detail and produced their own analysis. They looked at it slightly differently, counting the number of players each club has who have kicked 100 career goals, how many 50+ goal seasons players at each club have, and how many players on their list kicked 20+ goals last season. The Lions and Pies have the most listed players with 100+ goals (8) ahead of Geelong (7), with most of the competition in the 4-6 range. This is a far less useful analysis than what I gave for obvious reasons. None of the 8 Pies with 100+ career goals have ever kicked 50 in a season. Jamie Elliott has the most career goals on the Magpie list, and he has only 227. The Doggies won the 2016 flag without a recognised goalkicker, but that one is an outlier in the last 100 years. Very rare for a side to win a flag without somebody kicking enough goals to propel them to the finals. The Pies 8 includes Sidebottom, Pendlebury, Hoskin-Elliott, none of whom put the fear of God into Scott, Goodwin, Fagan and Longmire. When the Swans played the Pies in the run-up to the finals (with both premiership points AND percentage important) Longmire let all those guys run free and tagged a 17-year-old kid in his first season. That gives you a genuine idea of their threat as goalkickers. Brisbane's 8, by comparison, include some genuine goal-kicking power (Gunston, Cameron and even Joe Daniher have had 50+ goal seasons). But the statistical comparison ("how many has each team got?") clearly falls down when you see that the Brisbane list includes (current) backline players like Rich and Zorko. As I pointed out in 2022 Brisbane didn't get enough goals from their key position players but got respectable returns from on-ballers and flankers (McCarthy, Rayner and McCluggage all kicked 20+ in 2022). But that is a far less reliable method of scoring goals than the Geelong method, where Stengle matched Charlie Cameron goal for goal but Hawkins & Jeremy Cameron kicked far more (43 more) than all of Daniher/Hipwood/McStay. When you have guys who get you 50+ goals season after season (Hawkins, Franklin, Jeremy Cameron, Fritsch (since playing as a forward), Riewoldt, Lynch, then you are well on your way to playing finals most years and snagging a flag or three along the way. Earlier this century it was Brown/Lynch, Tredrea, even Big Bad Bustling Barry Hall kicked enough goals on a regular basis to get St Kilda and then Sydney to the big dance. Last century it was Wayne Carey, Dunstall/Brereton, Lloyd/Lucas, and before that it was Royce Hart. So, while AFL.com.au concludes that Brisbane is the side with the most scoring power they are wrong. It is still Geelong way out in front, and other teams have to find ways to catch them up. Some are not far off. The Tigers Riewoldt/Lynch/Bolton was closest to Hawkins/Cameron/Stengle last year, and Cumberland might add a dimension. But it is obvious that clubs like North, GWS, Gold Coast, Fremantle, Collingwood and even Port, none of which clubs has a player on their list who has ever managed 50 goals in a season will struggle to win enough games to make finals consistently. Of that group Port look closest to getting there, with Marshall kicking a career best 45 last season, and all of Dixon, Finlayson, Georgiadis and Fantasia solid contributors in front of the sticks. |
| DIPPER (10/02/2023 2:02:27 PM) So, how does each side shape up in 2023 in terms of goal-kicking power? Is your side better placed or worse off than they were last year. Here is the data. 1. Adelaide Walker & Fogarty kicked 80 between them last season and McAdam was next best with 23. Looks like they will have to play 11 forwards including Thilthorpe, Rankine and Rachele to even go close to matching the 3 top goal-scorers at Geelong. 2. Brisbane Played 3 talls most of the season with Daniher, McStay & Hipwood combining for 89 goals, while Charlie Cameron chipped in with a lazy 54. Have given McStay the flick and have Gunston in his place. 89 is NOT a sufficient return for 3 tall forwards, as their lack of mobility costs you when the other side run it out of defence. Compare what other clubs get from just 2 talls: Hawkins/Cameron 132, Curnow McKay 109, Lynch/Riewoldt 103, King/Membrey 86, even Chol/Casboult kicked 79. Plus half those other guys add brownie points for extra skills/roles: Hawkins forward 50 ruckwork, Chol has a run in the ruck, Membrey plays as an intercepting defender when the Saints are protecting a lead and in the last 5 minutes of most quarters, whereas the Brisbane trio don't have any more strings to their bow. Not clear that their goal-scoring improves in 2023. 3. Carlton While Curnow/McKay got their jobs done in 2022 what are the chances of such injury-prone players getting through a second straight full season? The best of their small forwards in 2022 was Durdin with 15 which is less than half the output of the top small forward of any of the contenders from Charlie Cameron (54) through Stengle (53), Bolton (43), Pickett (41), Ginnevan (40), Weightman (36), Papley (32), Schultz (30). Yes, last year's top 8 all had a small forward kicking 30+ goals, and the ten sides that missed out did not. 4. Collingwood Of their talls the goalkickers in 2022 were: Mihocek 41, Cameron 20, Cox 7, Krueger 4 (and Grundy 2 from just 6 games). The rest came from mid-size forwards and smalls, with Ginnivan (40), Elliott (28) and Oliver Henry (21) leading the pack. With Cox past his best, Krueger forever injured and Grundy & Henry no longer on the list it doesn't look sustainable to me. Like most of the finalists found a way to rack up 300 goals in the season, but it is hard to see that being repeated with the forward line they have. 5. Essendon In 2022 it was 2-metre Peter or nobody. He kicked 53; next best was Stringer with 25. Have a lot of upside if they can get Weideman up and firing and have two genuine marking forwards to kick to. If McDonald-Tipungwuti is back and fit and firing that must help, as he kicked 34 goals in 2021. But if they don't play Weideman and McD-T doesn't get back to his best they will have another season without winning a final. 6. Fremantle Lobb topped their list in 2022 with 36 and he is gone. Next best was Taberner with 23. The midget brigade (Schultz/Fredericks/Walters) had 80 between them, but they need another 50 goals from somewhere. The big guys coming in are Corbett (36 games, 33 goals) and Jackson (52 games, 30 goals), so that won't get you there. Probably Fyfe has to play as a permanent forward. Has he got what it takes to kick 50 in a season? Given that the best return Toby Greene has had in any season is just 45 he might find it tough. 7. Geelong Hawkins is a year older. Cameron's hamstrings have had another pre-season to over-stretch them. Stengle must be due to go completely off the rails again. I mention this because if those 3 contribute 185 goals again no side has a hope of catching them. 8. Gold Coast Chol & Casboult were respectable with 79 between them in 2022, and King should be back for 2023. Rankine was next best with 29, but I don't think they will miss him. I think Rosas might be the next Charlie Cameron, who averaged just a goal a game at Adelaide when Eddie Betts was the main small forward but averages 2 a game at Brisbane where he is the main small forward. Definite improver in the goal-kicking stocks in 2023. 9. GWS Hogan/Himmelberg kicked just 59 between them and Toby Greene 37. Although he appears to be the hardest match-up in the competition Greene has kicked 40+ only 3 times in 11 seasons and never more than 45. Hogan doesn't get on the park often enough but even his best season (2018, with the finals-bound Dees) was just 47 goals from 20 games. Supposedly Cadman will solve all their problems, but I have addressed that previously. 10. Hawthorn Lewis/Gunston were the main marking targets in 2022 with 69, but Gunston is gone. Perhaps Koschitzke can step up, but only 45 goals to date from 36 games. Bruest plays that mid-size hybrid forward as well as anyone (with the possible exception of Fritsch, Toby Greene, Jamie Elliott, Heeney and a few other blokes like Georgiadis, etc) but he ain't no spring chicken. Lots of unanswered questions here. "Will Wingard ever kick the ball to Koschitzke?" is one example. 11. Melbourne Brown and McDonald kicked only 45 between them in 2022, down from 58 the year before (McD played only 9 games, of course). The rucks were also less productive up forward with 24 goals between them (32 in 2021). Fritsch was similar both years (55 after 59 in 2021) and Pickett/Spargo were down from 58 in 2021 to 51 last year. So, from a premiership season to bundled out of the finals the goalscoring output was down across the board. I still think Petty forward is the key, although they might leave what worked in 2021 in place if McDonald and Brown are both fit and firing at season start and Gawn/Grundy can take turns drifting forward. In any event, barring another bad injury run they look to have upside in 2023, and that is without even considering van Rooyen and Joel Smith. 12. North Larky and Zurhaar kicked a respectable 72 between them in a side where the ball was at the other end of the ground most of the time. But after that it fell away badly, with Ziebell next best on 17. Unless they find another forward fast they may be the first club ever to score fewer than 200 goals in consecutive 22-round seasons. Tell Clarkson to put that on his resume! The thing is, when they come up against a top side Larky and Zurhaar will come up against De Koning and Stewart, or Lever and May. Even against a middle side it will be Weitering and McGovern. Against a fellow cellar-dweller like West Coast it will be Barrass and Hurn. If Larkey and Zurhaar are the only 2 blokes you need to cover they ain't going to win many games. 13. Port Had a slightly unusual structure last season with Marshall/Dixon/Finlayson sharing 2 key forward spots while one of them rucked and managed 82 goals between them. Next best was the mid-sized Georgiadis with 23. What they lacked in 2022 was a goal-kicking small forward: Gray (14 goals) and Motlop (10) were not the answer. If Fantasia can get on the park and keep on it Port will improve their goal-scoring in 2023.The one year he managed 20 games in a season he kicked 39 goals. Plus Marshall and Georgiadis should show further improvement with another pre-season behind them. Definite upside. 14. Richmond Lynch/Riewoldt were adequate (102 between them) and Bolton was right up there with 43 goals. Tried to find another player to take a mark up forward (Balta) but in the back end of the season it seems they went for the wrong Noah, as Cumberland looked a likely prospect. He might be a revelation in 2023 and do something like what Fritsch did in 2021. Pretty easy to be Fritsch in 2021 when everyone is watching Brown and McDonald and tracking Gawn or Jackson drifting down and suddenly Fritsch darts out on a quick lead and takes the mark. Cumberland could be the same in 2023 "Where's Riewoldt leading to? Which two guys have got Lynch covered? Who is standing in the hole? Who is back on the goal line in case he takes a shot?" And then, bingo! Cumberland darts out and takes an easy mark. 15. St Kilda King and Membrey kicked 86 in 2022, while next best was Higgins with 30. Definitely need another forward, but I don't see any of note on their list. 16. Sydney Franklin kicked 52 with no other tall kicking many: Reid 18, McDonald 15, etc. Heeney had a Fritsch-like season with 49, Hayward 34 and Papley 32. It must be a worry to Longmire that the talls aren't kicking enough goals, and I don't see McDonald making the giant strides he would need to in 2023 in order to rectify that. I have said that they overachieved by making the 2022 GF. They played Collingwood in the prelim, who also don't get enough goals from talls to be sustainable! Had Geelong played one prelim and Brisbane the other, both Collingwood and Sydney would have got pastings. In the Sydney-Collingwood game the leading goal scorer was Papley with 3 (the third one coming from THAT free kick). The only other multiple goal-scorers were Elliott, Franklin, McCreery, and Hoskin-Elliott (2 each). I reckon you could have all 5 of those players on your forward line and never get close against Geelong. All well and good Heeney kicking 49 in the season but if he has a quiet one in a final somebody else needs to stand up. In the 2021 prelim Fritsch got only 2, but Gawn kicked 5, Pickett 4 and Spargo 2. A week later those 3 kicked just 1 between them and Fritsch kicked 6 (of 21 !!). Have some good players but I don't think their forward structure gets them near the GF in 2023. 17. West Coast It has been Kennedy and Darling for so long, and now Kennedy has gone. Rioli also gone. He kicked some goals in 2022 but was an important cog in their 2018 premiership year. Overall they must improve on 2022, but they are coming from a long way back. In 2022, with Kennedy they kicked just 212 goals. Gold Coast, without King, kicked 271 and still were not really close to making finals. Holding pattern until somebody steps up. 18. Western Bulldogs In 2022 Naughton and Ugle-Hagan kicked 69 between them, Weightman 36 and then it was all midfielders (Bontompelli 24, Dunkley 18, Treloar 15). Bruce was not a factor after returning from a knee. Apparently, they have been looking at playing Bruce down back in 2023, so where does that leave their forward line? In the last 2 finals they played the forwards failed to cash in when the ball was mostly up their end, and then the defenders got overwhelmed when the ball was mostly up the defender's end. I would rank Naughton the most over-rated forward in the game today. Just 11 goals in 7 finals, and he is being compared to players like Carey and Brereton who kicked at least 11 goals in every finals series they played in! Could barely get a kick in the grand final when his opponent (May) was on one leg. Brereton kicked 8 in a grand final when the ball was up the other end for 90% of the game! Try Naughton down back (using Jones as the lock-down Steven May type and Naughton as the interceptor/third man up Jake Lever type). Up forward he is a one trick pony; the goal he kicked in the GF was the first he had managed all season that was not from a set shot! And even from the set shot he is not particularly accurate (56% conversion rate, whereas somebody like Ben Brown is 66%). Try Darcy and Ugle-Hagan up forward with Bruce. I think most teams would find that harder to cope with than the current structure. |
| DIPPER (10/02/2023 11:00:47 AM) The so-called "experts" talk about structure, clearances, ball movement, stability behind the ball, intercepts, turnovers, secondary clearances, and so on. But in the end our game always comes back to kicking through the big white sticks more often than the opposition. For a couple of years (2016, 2017) sides won flags without having traditional set-ups with (at least) 2 big forwards capable of taking pack marks and at least 1 quality ruckman. The turning point was a preliminary final in 2018, when a very average footballer called Mason Cox took 11 marks (8 contested) and the game away from Richmond. On viewing that performance the AFL coaching fraternity woke up to the fact that size does matter and got back on the gold standard. The 2018 premiers (West Coast) had the traditional forward structure with Kennedy and Darling in the key posts, a mid-size forward in Cripps, and a fleet of smaller guys (Le Cras, Rioli and Ryan). It is not just the goals the big guys kick, but they also create plenty for the mosquito fleet. In 2018 Darling Kennedy kicked 91, Cripps 38, and the three smalls 80. That doesn't seem a lot for the big guys when you compare to Hawkins/Cameron 132 goals in 2022, but they provided enough contests to enable the little guys to swoop. In 2022 the Carlton combo of Curnow and McKay wasn't far behind Hawkins/Cameron (once you exclude finals which the Blues didn't play - sorry to keep bringing that up Blues supporters). Curnow McKay kicked 109 between them in the home and away season, while the Cat pair had 118. Difference is that while the Cats had a third regular goalkicker in Stengle (53 for the season) the next best for Carlton was Cripps (20). In the last 11 seasons only one player has kicked 70(+) goals in a home and away season: Josh Kennedy in both 2015 & 2016, so having that third regular goalkicker is vital. In 2021 Fritsch kicked 59 goals for Melbourne, eclipsing the two (main) talls McDonald and Brown, who had only 58 between them. That doesn't tell their full story, however, as they used both ruckmen (Gawn and Jacson) in the forward line also, and they kicked 32 between them, bringing the total for the big guys to 90. That total for the rucks (32) is exceptional in the modern era: twice as many as any other ruck pair in recent years (Lycett/Natanui kicked 16 in 2018). It is common for the two rucks to contribute just 10 or 12 goals between them even in a premiership year: Stanley/Blicavs kicked 11 last year while Soldo/Nankervis managed just 10 in 2019. (2020 data disregarded due to the shortened season, quarters and general lack of interest). In 2021 Melbourne also got 58 goals from Pickett/Spargo, and in 2019 Castagna/Rioli/Bolton kicked 59. |
| DIPPER (8/02/2023 2:51:59 PM) To reinforce this, let's look at which clubs have the most top ten draft picks on their list. 1. Essendon (11 top ten draft picks on their list). Last won a final in 2004 (and only because that spastic Alastair Nicholson let the ball dribble between his legs for a goal in the dying moments). If either Nicholson or his mother had kept their legs together it would be even longer ... 2. Gold Coast (10). Over the journey have drafted some good players, but those that want to play finals and win flags go to another club: Tom Lynch, Steven May, Dion Prestia, Josh Caddy, old Uncle Tom Cobbley and all ... 3. North Melbourne (10). I bet you couldn't name more than three of them!! Seriously, they don't need the "super-coach", they need a new recruitment manager, list manager & draft manager. Oh, and a time machine ... 4. GWS (9). Somehow, they seem to stay at or near the top of this list despite losing top ten draft picks to other clubs (Jeremy Cameron, anyone?) every year. So, it is a continuing (re)cycle: draft, develop, lose them to another club, rinse and repeat ... 5. Fremantle (9). That would include Luke Jackson, I suppose. Left a club clearly in the premiership window to go to a club which will likely not win a premiership in my lifetime (ever?). Given the massive amount of experience the Dockers lost over the off-season, and the low number of average games per player on their list, perhaps this Luke is doing what Luke (Hodge) did at Brisbane: using his experience to mentor the kids ... 6. Carlton (8). Most of their good players (Cripps, Walsh, McKay, etc.) are top ten picks, but they also have a bunch of top ten picks not pulling their weight. And haven't played finals since 2013. That seems impossible in the current era, although Gold Coast has been around since 2011 without getting there. Here's a thought. If Carlton and Gold Coast merged for the 2023 season, they could actually have all 18 players on the field top ten draft picks! Would they actually make the finals? Given the recent history of the clubs one suspects not ... At the other end of the scale 2022 Premiers Geelong have just 4 top ten draft picks on their list, just to reinforce the point that top ten draft picks are NOT the answer. Pinching key players from other clubs will ALWAYS be the answer, as the Hawk threepeat showed back when Gary Buckenara managed the list (Lake, Frawley, McEvoy, etc). In 2022 it was Smith (ex-Hawthorn), Dangerfield (ex-Adelaide), Cameron (ex-GWS) and Stengle (ex-everywhere) who set up the Cats season. In 2021 it was May (ex-Gold Coast) and Lever (ex-Adelaide) the lynchpins of the premiership-winning season, along with an important contribution from Brown (ex-North). The Tigers flags are remembered for the performances of Dusty Martin, but it was the players brought in from other clubs (Lynch, Prestia, Houli, Caddy and others) that got them to the big dance. It makes sense that Geelong, which has never "bottomed out", and seems to have been winning, or close to winning the flag for nearly 20 years doesn't have many top ten picks on their list. Yet they have won three flags since the club with the most top ten picks last won a final of any description. Similarly Port and West Coast have only 4 top ten picks on their list. Although both clubs missed the finals in 2022, Port have been perennial finalists since they got rid of Wingard, and West Coast have rarely missed the finals since Kennedy joined them from the hapless Blues. But please explain why Hawthorn and Adelaide have only 5 (each) top ten pick players on their list? Neither side has made finals any of the last 4 seasons, and Adelaide the last 5. See this tweet from the Hawks list manager: Damn, forgot to turn up to the 2022 draft. That makes 4 years in a row ... |
| DIPPER (8/02/2023 1:46:20 PM) A few months ago, I demonstrated that top ten draft picks don't improve the fortunes of your club in their first few years. Many of them don't ever perform as well as those picked in the second half of the draft. As Professor Julius Sumner-Miller asked, "Why is it so?" Worth tracking down the old "Open Mike" interview with Rene Kink to get the best insight (even though there was no draft back then). When the game comes so easily to you it is easy to be complacent. Kink was playing competent League footy at age 16 but admits that he never pushed himself to be the best he can be, and he got overtaken by less gifted footballers who worked harder. These days if you are a star junior and drafted in the top ten you might just expect to get a game, whereas the guys drafted 30-60 know they have to work hard just to avoid being delisted in the first instance. Compare, say, Bailey Fritsch and Sam Weideman. Sam was taken at number 9 in a VERY strong draft year, and just expected to get a game. He refused to do what the coach wanted (in terms of chasing and tackling) and didn't get the games he expected. Meanwhile Bailey Fritsch, taken at pick 31, did everything the coach asked of him, including being played out of position (on the half-back line), then got dropped for the 2018 prelim. No dummy-spitting from him, and in 2021 he kicked 59 goals, 12 of them in finals and 6 of them in the Grand Final. A few other blokes have achieved that in the last 125 years; you can see a list of them in the Hall of Fame! If Weideman had been drafted at number 31 and Fritsch in the top ten it is easy to see that their career trajectories might have been different. Similarly, if Jason Horne-Francis had been pick thirty-something would he have been skipping ice baths and abusing teammates on the field? More likely he would have gone flat out to do all the team things and would be one of North's future stars today. Both Weideman and Horne-Francis are at their second clubs for season 2023, chasing the premiership glory that so many lower draft picks, including Bailey Fritsch, have already achieved. If they pick up a flag at their new clubs, they will become part of a very select group. Here is the list of players drafted in the top ten this century that went on to win a flag at another club: 2005 Josh P Kennedy (drafted by Carlton, traded to West Coast where he won a flag in 2018). 2007 Ben McEvoy (drafted by St Kilda but won flags at Hawthorn). 2007 Patrick Dangerfield (drafted by Adelaide, played in the Cats 2022 premiership) 2009 Gary Rohan (drafted by Sydney, played in the Cats 2022 premiership) 2010 Josh Caddy and Dion Prestia (both drafted by Gold Coast, both won flags at Richmond) 2013 Tom Boyd (drafted by GWS, played in the Dogs 2016 premiership side) Worth noting that it is generally many years between their draft year and their flag. 15 for Dangerfield, 13 for Kennedy and Rohan, etc. That is just 7 (seven!) players this century drafted top ten and won a flag at a club that did not draft them. I would give you the list of top ten draft picks that went to another club and did NOT win a flag, but there isn't enough space on this website to list them all ! It would include Chad Wingard who has contributed to two clubs (Port and Hawthorn) going from regular contenders to way off making finals (Port got back in the finals after his departure; no doubt the Hawks will too, one day.) I mention Wingard because he and Horne-Francis have much in common: both from SA, very skillful, but play for themselves rather than their team. But there are plenty of number 1 picks this century (as Horne-Francis was) who switched clubs and did not achieve premiership success with their second club. (I will exclude Luke Hodge from the list, as he went to the basket-case Bears after he had retired, more as a coach/mentor for the young side than as a player chasing a flag.) 2002 Brendan Goddard (St Kilda to Essendon), 2004 Brett Deledio (Richmond to GWS), 2006 Bryce Gibbs (Carlton to Adelaide), 2008 Jack Watts (Melbourne to Port), 2009 Tom Scully (Melbourne to GWS to Hawthorn), 2011 Jonathon Patton (GWS to Hawthorn), 2014 Paddy McCartin (St Kilda to Sydney). That's right, there have been just as many 21st century number 1 picks (or more, if you include Hodge) to switch clubs and fail to win a flag at their second club than there were TOP TEN picks who won a flag at their second club. The data says that top ten draft picks are unimportant to club success and, in many cases, the drafted player would provide more value to the club if he had been picked up at number 40, 50 or 60 in the draft. |
| DIPPER (30/01/2023 4:41:14 PM) So, to summarise where teams stand in the various relevant categories: For finals experience the top sides (including all the =3rds) are: Brisbane, Sydney, Geelong, Melbourne, Richmond, Bulldogs, Collingwood. For players with >100 games experience the top 5 are: Melbourne, Brisbane, Geelong, Richmond, Bulldogs. The top 3 clubs for average games played are: Geelong, Melbourne, Richmond, Brisbane, Bulldogs. The sides with above average age compared to the competition average are: Geelong, Bulldogs, Brisbane, Richmond, Collingwood, Melbourne, Gold Coast, Carlton. (Because some sides like Hawthorn are so far below the competition average I think a list needs to be above the average to be any chance.) A few names keep coming up: Brisbane, Geelong, Melbourne, Richmond, Western Bulldogs. One of those 5 will win the 2023 flag, and all are likely to be in contention in 2024 and 2025 but might be joined by Sydney and one or two others in 2024 or 2025. The sides with no hope of winning a flag before 2026 are: Hawthorn (rank in bottom 4 across all key data areas) and Adelaide (same). All the other sides could get there as soon as 2025 with the right list management and some lucky breaks in the draft. Don't forget: Melbourne finished 17th in 2019, didn't play finals in 2020 and won the flag in 2021. Of course, predictions are difficult, particularly when trying to predict the future(!). Younger than average sides have won the flag before (the 1993 "baby" Bombers had only 9 players on the ground on GF day aged over 24, and 7 aged 20 or less, and they had only 7 players taking the field that day who had played 100 games or more). But that was a freak set of circumstances, including the worst hometown umpiring you have ever seen in the second half of the Preliminary final, and the players who took the field had played an average of 86 games each. Thirty years on, however, it is impossible in the professional world of AFL that Gold Coast or North Melbourne could win the 2023 GF, the game is too professional for that to happen. The plain fact of the matter is that the 22/23 players to receive a premiership medallion in each of the last 6 years had played on average between 99 games (Melbourne, 2021) to 167 games (Geelong, 2022). West Coast had an average of 121 in 2018. The Tiger trajectory is interesting: their 22 on GF day averaged 104 games in 2017, 125 in 2019 and 132 in 2020. By and large there is no substitute for experience, which comes in 3 important categories: age (the pre-seasons, gym work etc.), games played and finals played. |
| DIPPER (30/01/2023 3:43:59 PM) What does a premiership list look like? And how close is your side to getting there? In the absence of exceptional circumstances (e.g. in the 1990s Wayne Carey plus any 17 park footballers looked like they could give the flag a shake) the focus must be on average age and games played, number of players with finals experience and the like. Here is some data. The average age of players across the competition is 24.4 years of age. This is an important consideration, because the number of pre-seasons done, the hours in the weight room/gym, etc, have a serious impact on which players can have a serious impact. For example, GWS is spruiking their number 1 pick Aaron Cadman as the next Jonathon Coleman. Quite frankly, the young Jonathon Coleman would struggle to get a kick in the 2020s, as his light frame would not stand up to the modern game. The most recent key forwards to kick 50 goals in their first season came in as mature age players, not skinny teenagers. Think Malcolm Blight, Allen Jakovich (quickest to 50 goals), etc. The best of recent times was probably Jesse Hogan, but he was a solid 95kg on debut as a 19-year-old. Blokes like Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow took years to mature into a genuine threat (and even those two haven't carried Carlton to finals yet). Port's Todd Marshall is starting to look like a genuine key forward, with 100 goals in 76 games over 6 seasons. Aaron Naughton has done a little better, with 138 goals from 94 games over 5 seasons, and he is considered a superstar in some quarters. Darcy Fogarty, taken in the same draft as Naughton, is only just starting to look like he belongs at AFL level, at the back end of his 5th season, after 58 games (just 83 goals). Since then, early draft picks like Max and Ben King have shown glimpses, but still boast fewer than 2 goals a game each. By way of comparison Jonathon Coleman kicked 12 on debut (as a 20-year-old), 100 goals in his first season and averaged five and a half goals throughout his career. Anyone who would like to bet that Cadman replicates that can get on here. The teams whose list has a higher average age than the competition are (from oldest average age): Geelong, Bulldogs, Brisbane, Collingwood, Richmond, Melbourne & Gold Coast. That list includes 3 of the 4 preliminary finalists from 2022, winners of the last 4 premierships, as well as the Bulldogs (2021 grand finalists and finalists last season) and Gold Coast. You would rate all those sides with the exception of Gold Coast (we will come back to them later) some hope in 2023, and certainly in the window to take the flag in the next 2-3 years. At the opposite end of the scale you have Hawthorn, whose list is way younger than any other in the league at 22.9 years (next youngest is Adelaide at 23.7). Hawks look to be at least 5 years away from challenging for the premiership again, and Adelaide at least 3-4 years. Fremantle made the finals last season and have an average age of 24 at the moment, but they lost a lot of experience between seasons. Sydney also average 24 as we speak. Although they made the GF in 2022, I think they over-achieved (similar to Melbourne making finals in 2018 and Essendon in 2021) and will see a slide down the ladder before challenging again. Experience comes not just from age, but also games played. The average games played for every player on a club list is 68. Eight teams boast average games played >68, and ten teams <68. In order from most to least the top 8 are: Geelong, Melbourne, Richmond (last 4 premierships between them), Brisbane, Bulldogs, Collingwood, West Coast & Sydney. Seven of those made the finals last season, while West Coast found themselves fielding a WAFL side for the first dozen rounds. This is where we come back to Gold Coast. They are in the zone for age profile, but their list averages only 63.5 games each; 13th of the 18 sides. They need another season or two getting games into players before they are a chance to win it all. Hawks again are at the bottom of the games played ladder, averaging just 42.6 for each player on their list. This reinforces why they are so far away from the Holy Grail. Freo is left with just 55.3 games per player (more than only Adelaide and Hawthorn), which looks much further off the pace than their final-winning 2022 season would suggest. The sides with an average just lower than the league average are Port, Carlton, North, St Kilda and Gold Coast. All of those except North were in the hunt for finals until right near the end of the home and away season. North is a bit different. They have won only about 11 games this millennium, so there are plenty of blokes down there getting 22 games a season who would be lucky to play 3 for a decent side. Average games per player on the list is good for depth, but you can have only 22 participating in the game at any one time. So, now we look at how many players with at least 100 games experience are at each club, as these are the ones most likely to participate on GF day subject to injuries. The average number of 100+ game players at each club is 12 (which is exactly what Sydney have). 9 clubs have more than that; in order: Melbourne 20, Geelong, Brisbane 17, Richmond 16, Bulldogs 15, West Coast 14, Collingwood, Port, St Kilda 13. At the other end of the scale Adelaide has fewest (just 6), Hawks 7, Freo 9, Carlton, Gold Coast, GWS & Essendon 10, and North 11. I have the same rider for North as in the previous category: I might have played 100 games for North over the last 5 seasons - and I ain't no superstar. The last thing to look at is the number of players with finals experience (league average is 21). There are 2 standouts here with Brisbane (32 on their list have played at least 1 final) and Sydney (29). Then a bunch of teams all with 28: Melbourne, Geelong, Richmond, Bulldogs, Collingwood. Freo has 26 (nearly all from last year), Port 23, Essendon 22, GWS 21, West Coast & St Kilda 19, then a big drop to North and Hawthorn on 11, Carlton 8, Gold Coast and Adelaide 7. Is finals experience important? Look at Carlton in 2022. The club hasn't made the finals in forever, but last season had the opportunity to seal the deal in 4 consecutive rounds (away to Adelaide and Brisbane, then at the MCG against Melbourne and Collingwood). Those last 2 in particular were as near to finals as you can get and they gave up substantial last quarter leads in both of them, when cooler, more experienced heads would have prevailed. |
| DIPPER (18/01/2023 1:25:40 PM) Time to look at the draw and how it might impact each team. 1. Adelaide Have a decent run from rounds 13-18 (June/July): Suns (Darwin), Eagles (home), Collingwood (away), North (home), Essendon (away), Giants (home). Only one of those sides made finals in 2022, and 5 of them finished in the bottom 7. Would need to win at least 5 of those 6 to challenge for finals. 2. Brisbane Four of their first seven games are against sides that made finals in 2022, but then they strike a soft patch with Carlton (away), Essendon, Suns (home), Adelaide, Hawthorn (away). Would want to win at least 4 of those five to press for top 4. 3. Carlton Their "soft" patch starts round 3, when they get Giants, North, Crows (all away), Saints (home) and Eagles (away). Last year I warned Bluebaggers that Carlton had a tough run home and would need to stitch up a finals spot by July. This year the run home is not so tough: their August games feature only 1 side that made 2022 finals (Melbourne), while the Saints, Suns and Giants are all gettable. Their danger period in 2023 is in May (Lions, Dogs, Pies, Swans) with Dees in first week of June. Need to win at least 4 of their rounds 3-7, and not fall off a cliff in rounds 8-12. 4. Collingwood Their big chance is in the run up to the bye, when they play Giants (home), Blues, North, Eagles (away) and then Dees on King’s Birthday holiday (Pies have won 7 of their last 8 against Dees). 5. Essendon In 2022 produced a shocker in round 1 (ten goal loss to the Cats) and never recovered. Soft-looking draw early, with Hawks, Suns, Saints & Giants all in Melbourne. Big chance to set up their season in the first month before a tougher draw kicks in. Dees have shown the value of the flying start to the season the last two years, setting up a top 2 finish each time. If Bombers are in touch come August, they get Eagles and North (both in Melbourne) followed by Giants away and Pies in the final round. 6. Fremantle Another side that has to set up their season in the first 5 weeks with Saints (away), North (home), Derby, Crows (away) and Suns (home). Need at least 4 of those in the bank as after that they play 11 of their last 17 against 2022 finalists, including 5 of 6 from rounds 6-11. In July/August they play only 2 sides that finished bottom 6 last year, one of which is the Derby and the other is the final round against Hawthorn with Sam Mitchell's coaching career on the line. 7. Geelong Looks close to the toughest draw of any this season. Rounds 2-5 they get Carlton, Suns, Hawks and Eagles which looks like their best chance to set up their season. Ten of their last 17 against 2022 finalists. 8. Gold Coast Have to wait until June to get a run of games against 2022 non-finalists: Crows (Darwin), Blues (away), Hawks (home). Then another 3 in July: Port (away), Saints (home), Giants (away). But mostly their draw is peppered with top 8 sides from last year. 9. GWS First 5 games are against sides that missed finals last year. Crows (home), Eagles (away), Blues (home), Bombers (away), Hawks (home). If they are to challenge for finals need to win at least 4 of those. 10. Hawks Best run is straight after their bye, with Suns (away), Blues, Giants (away) and North before they start running into 2022 finalists again. Danger is they might be only 4 wins and 9 losses by then. 11. Melbourne In 2021 & 2022 won their first ten or so games, but that looks a pipe dream in 2023. Dogs, Lions (away), Swans to start the season. Then the likely 2 biggest improvers in 2023: Eagles (away) and Bombers (away) and another 2022 finalist in the Tigers. Would be happy to be 3-3 after 6 rounds before an easier run against North, Suns (away), Hawks, Port (away), Dockers (home), Carlton before their traditional loss to Collingwood on the King's Birthday holiday. Will want to win 5 of those 6 at least to challenge for top 4. 3 winnable games in August before Swans at the SCG in the final round. 12. North Can’t see the draw offering them any hope this season. If the Dockers start slowly (possible, as they have had more key positions changes than other side) the first 4 rounds offer their best hope: Eagles (home), Freo (away), Hawks (Tassie) and Blues. 13. Port Horror start to 2022 and 2023 looks tough. First 5 rounds include a showdown and 4 finalists from 2022: Lions (home), Pies (away), Sydney (away), Dogs (home). A softer patch after that with Eagles, Saints, Bombers and North but the season could be over before it starts for the second year running. 14. Richmond Won’t want to blow the season opener (Carlton) again. Follow up with Crows (away) and then a tough run of Pies, Dogs, Swans and Dees. Don’t get to play 3 in a row against sides that didn’t make 2022 finals until the last 3 of the season: Saints, North and Port (away). 15. St Kilda After starting against last year’s finalists Dockers (home) and Dogs have a dream run from round 3 with Bombers, Suns (home), Pies, Blues, Port, North, Crows, Giants, Hawks. Only 1 of the sides they play in rounds 3-11 made the finals last season! Could be de ja vu all over again: in 2022 were 8-3 after 11 rounds and missed the finals. Last 11 games play 7 against 2022 finalists plus interstate trips to Eagles and Suns. 16. Sydney A tough draw. Get 3 non-finalists from 2022 in a row twice: North (away) then Carlton & St Kilda at home between rounds 11-13. Then rounds 20-23 Bombers (away), Giants, Suns, Crows (away) before Dees in final round. 17. Eagles No particularly good stretches for the Eagles either. Rounds 19-22 offer Carlton (away), North (home), Bombers (away) and a Derby, but they look likely to be well out of contention by then. 18. Dogs Get their chance between round 7 and 11 when they meet Hawks, Giants (away), Carlton, Crows (Ballarat), Suns (Darwin). Would want to win at least 4 of those. |
| DIPPER (7/12/2022 11:33:45 PM) Dunno what happened there. Wrote up the other 10 sides but never appeared on the site. Maybe Andy can retrieve it. |
| DIPPER (7/12/2022 11:32:17 PM) Test |
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